Result
Travelling will remain a central part of many people's lives in the future. At the same time, however, there is a growing awareness of the challenges facing tourism, such as flight shaming, the boom in private accommodation and the problem of overtourism.
Flight shaming describes the shame felt when travelling by air and ignoring the harmful effects on the climate. Currently, one in seven people express this feeling of guilt, although the differences between age groups or income groups are just as small as between domestic and long-distance travellers.
Private accommodation will gain in importance in the future. Currently, around one in ten people stay in a holiday flat or holiday home - in future, 14 per cent plan to use this type of accommodation more frequently.
Overtourism is already a challenge for many destinations. Cities such as Venice and Barcelona suffer from the consequences of mass tourism, as do certain museums, historical sites and sensitive ecosystems. Only a minority of eight per cent see advance booking for a fee as a sensible way of protecting tourist attractions, reducing environmental pollution and minimising conflicts between tourists and local residents.
Reasons
In the area of air travel, there is a discrepancy between knowledge and action. Many people are aware of the climate-damaging effects of flying, but still do not want to give up air travel (a return flight from Berlin to Buenos Aires, for example, causes about as many CO₂ emissions as the average annual per capita emissions in Germany). Alternatives are often seen as more expensive, time-consuming or simply unavailable. In addition, the desire for personal freedom and mobility outweighs the feeling of responsibility for climate protection.
Private accommodation is valued above all for its authenticity: guests get direct contact with hosts and insights into the local culture, while at the same time benefiting from self-catering options and cheaper accommodation costs compared to hotel prices. This ignores the fact that these benefits often come at the expense of the local population. Owners prefer to rent flats to tourists rather than to locals on a long-term basis. This leads to rising rents and displacement of the local population. Short-term rentals also often lead to noise pollution and conflicts with neighbours, as tourists have different needs and behaviours than local residents.
Overtourism is mainly caused by the unbridled appeal of popular destinations. Travellers want to see and experience the highlights, even if it is together with (very, very) many others. At the same time, the number of tourists is increasing - whether at home or abroad. Although many guests would welcome visitor control through reservations, there is little willingness to pay for this, to compromise on times or even to be unable to visit certain beaches, museums or city centres - after all, it is always others who are responsible for overcrowding and not you.
Forecast
In the field of air travel, innovations and investments in emission-free technologies will help to reduce the ecological footprint of flying. These developments will be fuelled by stricter regulations and higher costs for air travel. However, this is also accompanied by the risk of an increasing division in travel between those who can pay higher prices and those who have to switch to other means of transport and holiday destinations.
In the future, more and more cities will introduce clear rules to minimise the negative impact of private rentals on the housing market - for example, by limiting the number of rental days or imposing higher taxes on landlords. Platforms such as Airbnb themselves could develop solutions, for example an additional levy that is then invested directly in local projects, such as the construction of affordable housing, to reduce the challenges somewhat.
In the fight against overtourism, access restrictions for heavily frequented attractions will be introduced in the long term. Staggering fees according to time of day or season will help to equalise peak times and at the same time generate revenue that will be channelled into maintaining attractions.
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