Forecast and reality:
BAT media analyses and forecasts in retrospect

The current dilemma surrounding the Kirch media group and the entire „new economy“ is proof of the importance of early media analyses and media forecasts on a reliable empirical basis. In spring 1997, when the new market had just been born in Germany, the B-A-T leisure research institute determined on a representative basis that almost two out of five German citizens (37%) categorically rejected pay-TV on the grounds that: „Many people will not be able to afford the use of new television channels and programmes against additional payment (‚pay-TV‘).“ And as it turned out, these acceptance problems towards pay-TV even increased in the following years (1998: 41% - 1999: 42%) and not decreased.
Pay TV opponents only represented one half of the large group of disinterested consumers. A total of 82 per cent of the German population stated that they had no interest in using pay-TV. Accordingly, we took a critical view of future developments: „There are serious economic reasons against the mass expansion of pay-TV. Many households will not be able to bear these costs in the 21st century - nor will they want to“ (Opaschowski 1999, p. 63). Shopping, going to the cinema, eating out and going on holiday ranked and still rank well ahead of pay-TV. The results today are correspondingly sobering: Over 90 per cent make regular use of free TV or switch-on TV, compared to only 2 per cent of pay TV or pay-TV.
Ignoring and negating these research results has led to corresponding misjudgements and planning errors. Now - in 2002 - critical voices are suddenly being raised, demanding: „First of all, it must be analysed mercilessly whether Germany is a market for so-called pay-TV, i.e. subscription television, at all. It was downright insane“, notes the Munich WIRTSCHAFTSKURIER (March 2002, p. 1), for example, „to base the planned AGM for ‚Premiere World‘ on a target projection of four million subscribers.“ Such reports of financial disaster come five years too late.
Another example of the industry's unrealistic euphoria and the corresponding vanity of politicians is the misjudgement of the new economy. As early as 1995, the author warned in a documentary by the Federal Ministry of Economics on the future information society that the „cyber cash could turn into a cyber crash“ because consumers would have considerable „acceptance problems“. If the media industry does not seriously ascertain whether consumers „actually want it all“, then „shock (and flop) effects cannot fail to materialise“ and a „division of the media society“ into computer freaks and computer illiterates is unavoidable (Opaschowski 1995, p. 46 f.).

The book readers

More and more books are being bought in Germany, but fewer and fewer are being read. The daily heavy readers are dying out (1992: 16% - 2000: 6%), as the latest representative studies by STIFTUNG LESEN (2001)0 show. At the same time, the proportion of non-readers is growing (1992: 20% - 2000: 28%). And the quality of reading is also changing fundamentally:

• Fast-food reading, i.e. skimming reading, is spreading. People skim the pages and only read what is most interesting (1992: 14% - 2000: 19%).
• Parallel reading has almost doubled in recent years. People are increasingly reading several books at the same time and in parallel (1992: 10% - 2000: 19%).
• Bite-sized reading continues to increase. Books are read in small portions over a longer period of time (1992: 29% - 2000: 35%).
• Intermittent reading has more than doubled, i.e. people are finding it increasingly difficult to read a book without taking a break (1992: 18% - 2000: 47%).

The latest B-A-T media analysis from February 2002 confirms this development. One in three Germans (33%) now self-critically admits: „To be honest, the quality of my reading has changed recently: Due to time constraints, I read less, faster and more superficially.“ A young generation of zappers is growing up that will change the quality of reading and thus also book production in the long term and sustainably. Almost two thirds of 14 to 19-year-olds (63%) are committed to fast-food reading.
In a spreading zapping culture, the long breath for lengthy and time-consuming things is slowly being lost. People are reading faster and faster. At the same time, the willingness and ability to read longer texts is declining. The following applies to the future: the cultural technique of reading will not die out, but reading on will become more important than reading through. Selective reading will become a habit: people will skim texts, skip passages and practise reading several books, newspapers and magazines at the same time (Boesken 2001, p. 144). Reading socialisation will therefore change in the future. Even today, many children can only tell short stories in which one highlight follows another - just like in television commercials or music channels (Rabenschlag/Heger 1994).

The newspaper readers

Until the 1970s, reading newspapers was the most common leisure activity among the population and was only displaced from the top spot by television with the spread of private broadcasters from 1984 onwards. The attractiveness of newspapers as a print medium has not suffered as a result - quite the opposite: reading newspapers and magazines has never been used as regularly as it is today (1992: 74% - 2002: 84%). However, the generation gap has remained. Young people aged 14 to 17 pick up a newspaper significantly less often (61%) than, for example, the 30 to 49-year-olds (82%) or even the 50-plus generation (93%). Against the background of increasing life expectancy, the newspaper medium has a secure future ahead of it because interest in reading newspapers increases with every year of life.

The radio listeners

Radio has become „the“ accompanying medium of life, used by different population groups at all times and in all places ? by women (76%) as well as men (76%), by 14- to 49-year-olds (74%) as well as by the over-50s (79%). There has been little change in the attractiveness of this medium over the last ten years (1992: 75% - 2002: 76%). Three quarters of German citizens count listening to the radio as one of their regular activities in a mixture of habit and everyday ritual. This is unlikely to change much in the future.

The TV viewers

When the television is on in Germany's living rooms, fewer and fewer people are watching it. More and more people are turning away from television and turning their attention to other things: People read and eat, iron and do handicrafts, chat, talk to friends on the phone or play with children or cats. While the TV programme is on, family members go about their business - as if television didn't even exist.
Television - like radio in the past - is increasingly becoming a secondary and background medium that provides entertainment, distraction and a good mood. More than every second German citizen (53%) now openly admits: „Television has become entertainment TV for me: I read, eat or talk on the phone while watching TV.“ TV viewers can switch on and off quizzes, sports and soap operas at any time without feeling like they are losing the „red thread“. Almost two thirds of 14 to 49-year-old TV viewers make use of this type of media consumption. This inevitably has an impact on programme quality.
At the same time, more and more viewers are switching to flatter programmes. A kind of lift effect is emerging: Almost all TV programmes are now one level lower - at the expense of political magazines.
Does quality television still have a future? Or can it only survive as an event medium? Kursk, Concorde and Kandahar today and the European Championships, World Cup and Formula 1 tomorrow? Is even political journalism degenerating into media politainment, in which wars, crises and catastrophes as well as sensations and scandals are sold as unique events with entertainment value? Is reporting on reality increasingly becoming a victim of „media-effective“ laws, which are as follows:

• The bad news is more effective in the media than the good news - according to the tried and tested formula „The bad news is the better news.“
• The entertaining is more effective in the media than the informative - in the words of Helmut Schmidt: „For the viewer, it matters more whether the tie matches the shirt than what a politician has to say about the future of Europe.“
• The superficial is more effective in the media than the profound - in the spirit of Helmut Thoma: „You can't sink in the shallows.“
• The violent is more media-effective than the non-violent - to paraphrase Larry King on the CNN talk show on 22 June 2000 on the occasion of the execution of Gary Graham in Texas: „The execution on this show - stay tuned.“

And the reality depicted is just as selective. For the public and especially for children and young people, the image of an extreme society is created, even though real life takes place „between“ the extremes.

The PC users

Today's PC world is still predominantly young, male and educated:

• Almost one in two people aged between 14 and 29 (47%) regularly use a PC at home.
• Among 30 to 49-year-olds, this figure is only one in three (34%), and among the over-50s it is only one in eight (13%).
• The proportion of male PC users is almost twice as high (36%) as for women (19%). Women are slowly catching up (e.g. in 1999: 10% - men: 23%), but the gap remains.
• PC use is primarily a question of education: Secondary school leavers (14%) and grammar school leavers (55%) are virtually worlds apart. The gap between the two user groups is widening.

The Internet users

The long-awaited Internet revolution has still not materialised among private consumers:

• At the end of the 1990s, the media industry predicted (BERTELSMANN/Middelhoff 1999): „In a few years, the Internet will be a mass medium like television.“
• At the same time, media research (BAT / Opaschowski) predicted: „The spread of the Internet will take one to two generations.“
• Compared to the mass medium of television (95%), the Internet has remained a niche medium for private consumers (18%). Over three quarters of consumers do not use the Internet or online services at home. Electronic data networks are still very much in vogue, with most Germans preferring to laze around.

Everything takes time - even the so-called Internet revolution. On the other hand, we can also speak of an exponential development: More and more German citizens are connecting to the Internet after work to surf the web. The number of private Internet surfers has increased almost ninefold from 1.3 million (1996) to 11.5 million (2002). Women in particular have caught up (1996: 1% - 2002: 12%). Young people between the ages of 14 and 19 continue to be the most popular group. One in three (35%) use their PC at home at least once a week for online services and other networks. On the other hand, retired people over the age of 65 (1996: 1% - 2002: 2%) are still not keen on the net. They prefer to relax in front of the television (1996: 95% - 2002: 97%).
Even Bill Gates is now expressing considerable doubts. In an interview, he self-critically admitted that technological progress alone is no longer enough. People have to change - otherwise nothing will change on the way to the information society. However, he admits that people are „slow to change their habits“ and that behavioural patterns often „only change with a new generation“ (interview from 18 May 1997 in WELT am SONNTAG, p. 64).

The viewser

The brave new world of mobile internet is said to be just around the corner: The start of a media era in which everything is networked with everything else and mobile phones can do everything: „all-rounders“ - a new generation of devices is now waiting for a new generation of users. Everything in one device? TV, PC and Internet, plus e-mail and telephone or even a mobile phone? One in four Germans would like to have such new multi-purpose devices. Two thirds of the young SMS generation (64%) aged between 14 and 24 are enthusiastic about this technological innovation. However, almost three quarters of the population say: „No, thanks!“ They would prefer to simply flick through the TV channels as before, stating „For me, everything will stay the same in the future“ (B-A-T Freizeit-Forschungsinstitut 2002).
Openness to new media technologies is primarily a question of education and age. The proportion of respondents with a high school education is more than twice as high (49%) as the proportion of graduates with a lower secondary or primary school qualification (20%). The new all-rounders are particularly popular with young people, especially 14 to 19-year-olds (69%) and 20 to 29-year-olds (51%). Interest declines rapidly from the age of thirty (30 to 39-year-olds: 31%). The generations over 30 already have distinct or „well-rehearsed“ media habits between newspapers and books, radio and television. They have little interest in mobile Internet-enabled multipurpose entertainment media. Today's SMS generation will be the future UMTS generation - a universal mobile telecommunications generation that will remain a minority. The media revolution can therefore not be a question of one or two years. Rather, it will require a period of one to two generations before it can become truly mainstream.

Outlook: The future belongs to the „new old media world“

Technologically, anything is possible. But psychologically, the media revolution is reaching its limits. More and more TV programmes, video films and computer games. Then there are e-mails, faxes and mobile phones. The use of these media is becoming more and more intensive, costing time and nerves. Bill Gates‘ prediction of the computer as a digital nervous system that is as fast as human thought is becoming reality. Many people are aware of this and are declaring war on the time and stress factor, the information trap and the accessibility craze so that the relief does not become a nuisance. They refuse to do so. For them, the main thing is television, i.e. relaxation and distraction with TV entertainment programmes that can be consumed after work without any problems or demands. These are the new old wishes for the future of the media. The vast majority of the population wants to remain passive media consumers. The role of active creator and co-creator (?programme director audience?) remains limited to the minority of the information and education elite.
Once again, Germany is characterised by a divided media society in which new media technologies clash with old media habits. The media are evolving, but most people are standing still. They have become accustomed to the TV programme between news, feature films and entertainment for a lifetime. They therefore want to leave everything as it is. The industry's hope that TV viewers and PC users, viewers and users will soon merge into a new generation of viewers will not be realised any time soon. The pessimistic forecast that the „web will eat television“ will not materialise, nor will the optimistic prediction that „TV and PC will soon grow together“. Only the ophthalmologist would benefit from the latter anyway.

Sources

• B-A-T Freizeit-Forschungsinstitut (ed.): Die multimediale Zukunft. Analyses and forecasts, Hamburg 1997
• B-A-T Freizeit-Forschungsinstitut: B-A-T Medienanalyse 2002: Representative survey of 2000 people aged 14 and over in February 2002, Hamburg 2002
• Boesken, G.: Reading on the screen: Who is 'in', and are books now 'out'? In: Stiftung Lesen (ed.): Reading behaviour in Germany in the new millennium, Mainz-Hamburg 2001, p. 144
• Jepsen, M.: No action, no man? In: HAMBURGER ABENDBLATT of 22 August 2001, p. 1.
• Koziol, K.: Living with reservations? Notes on network communication. In: forum medienethik 2 (2000), p. 13.
• Mander, J.: Schafft das Fernsehen ab! (?Four Arguments For The Elimination of Television?, 1978), Reinbek b. Hamburg 1979
• Negroponte, N.: Total digital. Die Welt zwischen 0 und 1 oder Die Zukunft der Kommunikation („being digital“, 1995), Munich 1995
• Opaschowski, H.W.: The multimedia age is a long time coming. Acceptance problems of the new information technologies. In: Federal Ministry of Economics (ed.): die Informationsgesellschaft, Bonn 1995
• Opaschowski, H.W.: Generation @. The media revolution releases its children: Life in the information age, Hamburg-Ostfildern 1999
• Opaschowski, H.W.: Telecommunications 2010 ? What does the consumer want? In: Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (ed.): Telekommunikation 2010, Bonn 2000, pp. 74-82
• Rabenschlag, U./R. Heger: Research study of the Psychiatric University Clinic/Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Freiburg/Br. 1994
• Stiftung Lesen (ed.): Reading behaviour in Germany in the new millennium. A study by Stiftung Lesen, Hamburg 2001.