Holiday fun in times of crisis.
Germans are travelling abroad less:
Domestic tourism makes a comeback

Since 11 September 2001, the "perfect holiday world" is no longer what it used to be: terrorist attacks, the Iraq war, the tsunami, bird flu, the cartoon controversy, the stock market crisis and recession have all left their mark on a growth industry that was used to success. Although Germans' desire to travel remains unbroken, holidays are becoming ever shorter (2008: 12.2 days), holiday budgets ever tighter (2008: 960 euros holiday budget per person) and destinations ever closer: almost two in five holidaymakers (38%) stayed in Germany last year and did not travel abroad. And 2009 threatens to become the year of tourism uncertainty, because the camp of those "undecided" about travelling (34.8%) is larger than ever before. This is according to the 25th German Tourism Analysis by the BAT Foundation for Future Studies, in which 4,000 people aged 14 and over were asked about their holiday behaviour in 2008 and their travel intentions for 2009.
"Instead of warmth, distance and expanse, it's more like: Short. Close. Away," says Prof Dr Horst W. Opaschowski, Scientific Director of the BAT Foundation. "Instead of foregoing travel, the joy of a holiday is literally bought and financially compensated for by shortening the duration of the trip. In this way, the most popular form of happiness lives on: travelling for a shorter period of time simply means Enjoying more intensively and tightening your belt at the same time." And only a minority can afford the luxury of a second or third trip anyway: in 2007 it was 16.4 per cent, in 2008 15.7 per cent and in 2009 - according to the current travel intentions of Germans - it will perhaps only be 11.6 per cent.
When it comes to holiday budgets, long-haul destinations are becoming a distant memory. This makes holidays in your own country, where you can save time and money, all the more popular. But implementing the practical travel formula "Short. Near. Away." also has its downsides: Holidaymakers are quick to arrive - but also quick to leave. Domestic holidaymakers stay just 9.8 days, while international travellers stay an average of 13.7 days. Professor Opaschowski: "The best weeks of the year are turning into the best days of the year." Today, holiday providers in Germany can only dream of the tourist boom times of the early 1980s, when holidaymakers stayed for almost three weeks (1980: 18.2 days on average).

Domestic travel 2008.
Bavaria extends its leading position

Germany remains by far the most popular holiday destination for Germans - with an upward trend (2005: 32% - 2006: 34% - 2007: 36% - 2008: 38%). Last year, domestic holidays gained significant market share. "A comeback of German tourism is emerging. The financial and economic crisis is reinforcing this trend: the world champions in travel are travelling less abroad," says the head of the BAT Foundation. This is particularly true for families with children. Almost every second family (46%) took a holiday in Germany last year. In difficult economic times, the quality characteristics of family holidays are once again more important: local, inexpensive and comfortable. The crisis is becoming an opportunity for family-friendly holiday destinations. There is a lack of money for event tourism offers. Fewer and fewer holidaymakers can afford to be demanding and prestigious.
Holidaymakers in Germany feel most at home between the Alps, North Sea and Baltic Sea. Bavaria emerged as the winner in the domestic competition last season and extended its leading position. More than one in five domestic holidaymakers (22.9%) stayed in Bavaria in 2008, closely followed by Baltic Sea holidaymakers (20.1%). The North Sea coast and North Sea islands still have to fight for their share (14.8%), as do Lake Constance and the Black Forest (7.7%).
In addition to Bavaria, holiday providers in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are the main winners: From the Mecklenburg Lake District to the Baltic coast and the island of Rügen. Opaschowski: "With the increased demand for holidays in one's own country, competition for market share within Germany is getting tougher. Mountains and lakes, coasts and islands are fighting for the favour of holidaymakers. The competition 'mountains versus coast' is more open than ever."

Travelling abroad 2008.
Turkey overtakes Austria

For more than thirty years, there have been three undisputed frontrunners among Germans' favourite foreign destinations: Spain, Italy and Austria. What had already been heralded in recent years in terms of tourist movements became reality in 2008: Turkey (6.3%) overtook Austria (4.9%). As recently as 1970, Austria was the lone frontrunner with a market share of 15 per cent. And even a decade ago, there were still twice as many holidaymakers in Austria (1998: 6%) as travellers to Turkey (3%). Professor Opaschowski: "What began with the so-called 'Teutonic grill' in Italy has now found its logical continuation: The longing for sunshine outshines all other travel desires. Guaranteed sunshine is becoming synonymous with a successful holiday." As a result, Mediterranean summer destinations such as Spain (12.3%), Italy (7.2%) and Turkey (6.3%) dominated the past travel season.
Austria, with its special quality features of "beautiful" scenery, "healthy" climate and "cosy" atmosphere, cannot do enough to counter this seemingly unstoppable trend towards the south and the sun. It is perhaps only a matter of time before Greece or North African destinations such as Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt overtake Austria in the favour of German holidaymakers.
Demand remains strong for Eastern European destinations (Hungary/Poland: 3.7%) as well as Croatia and Slovenia (2.8%). Long-haul destinations such as the USA (1.5%), the Caribbean (1.3%) and Asia (1.2%) follow far behind. Long-distance holidays are attractive to many German citizens, but only a few can afford them. They are not a serious alternative to domestic or Mediterranean holiday destinations. In difficult economic times, Croatia has to replace the Caribbean.

Means of transport 2008.
Mobility turnaround on holiday: the car is coming back.
Noticeable slump in air tourism

Over a hundred years ago, our own four walls were given wheels: The car as a means of transport was born. It changed the lifestyle of mobile people: Experience mobility and mass tourism were the result. Since then, around one in ten kilometres travelled by car has been for holiday purposes only. With the growing importance of air tourism (1970: 8% - 2000: 35%), the car threatened to lose its dominance in recent decades (1970: 61% - 2000: 49%). There are now signs of a mobility turnaround in tourism: the car (2008: 51%) has once again overtaken the aeroplane (2008: 34%). This is a noticeable slump in air tourism, which could become even more pronounced if flight costs continue to rise in the near future.
Professor Opaschowski: "Holidaymakers remember that car journeys are above all inexpensive and not just convenient. In times of increasingly tight holiday budgets, the car is paying off again. It is also considered family-friendly, can be used flexibly and makes you independent of time and place. The car makes you mobile: it rightly bears its name." This could be a future opportunity for the - currently ailing - automotive industry: The rediscovery of the car as a holiday vehicle.

Consequences of the financial crisis.
Saving across the board: holiday trips also affected

No sector is currently spared from the economic crisis. However, experience from the last few decades shows that it is: When the economy as a whole begins to shrink, the tourism industry is often still running at full speed because it reacts with a time lag. In the case of minor economic dips, the crisis sometimes does not even reach the tourism industry. But now, in times of a global recession from Europe to China, holiday travel cannot be spared. What's more, the time delay factor, which has had a positive effect so far, also has its downsides: Tour operators may still be relatively relaxed about the coming summer season; however, they will have to prepare for worse times as early as the 2009/2010 winter season. Opaschowski: "Then the 'happiness factor travelling' bonus will have been used up and a 'hard winter' with a slump in business is imminent."

A trip to Germany costs 656 euros.
Long-distance travel many times more expensive

"The desire to travel - price-conscious!" is the current German holiday motto. Despite an unbroken desire to travel, Germans are having to cut back on their holiday spending. In the BAT Tourism Analysis, the actual money spent by holidaymakers was determined. The specific question was: "And approximately how much money did you spend on this last holiday trip, on travel, accommodation, food, drink, excursions, etc. per person?" The representative survey revealed that, with an average holiday duration of 12.2 days per year, the total was 960 euros.
"When it comes to price comparisons, Germans no longer stop at holidays," says Professor Opaschowski. "The impression is that some people are buying prices - and not just a holiday." Germans are discovering holidays as a savings programme. Short and budget holidaymakers are increasingly setting the tone and trend. This is why there are also considerable price differences. The average holiday in Germany costs 656 euros. The cheapest holidays can currently be taken in the Harz Mountains and the Lüneburg Heath: 446 euros is enough for every holidaymaker. By contrast, the most money is needed for holidays on the North Sea coast and on the North Sea islands in Lower Saxony (826 euros). A holiday in Bavaria costs 753 euros, in the Black Forest and on Lake Constance 672 euros. Meanwhile, a Baltic Sea holiday is cheaper in Schleswig-Holstein (672 euros) than in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (695 euros).
If you have to do the maths, then a domestic holiday is still the cheapest. The only comparable costs are for a holiday in neighbouring Austria (825 euros). A trip to Italy, on the other hand, costs 1,018 euros. Holidays in Spain and Turkey are now at the same price level (1,092 euros each). However, long-haul holidays are many times higher, which is also due to the longer duration of the trip. For a 20-day holiday in the USA, Germans spend around 2,367 euros per person. And if you even want to travel to Australia or New Zealand, you have to invest the same amount of time and money. Such a long-distance trip "costs" 3,074 euros and an additional 22.9 days. Some people can only afford this "once in a lifetime", but most German citizens "never".
Regardless of the destination, there are also notable differences in travel costs between individual population groups: Men spend more on holiday (1,019 euros) than women (909 euros), singles (1,013 euros) more than families (813 euros). And city dwellers also live large on holiday (EUR 1,072), while the holiday budget of rural dwellers is much more modest (EUR 862). The emerging holiday trend towards switching from plane to car also has a demonstrable economic justification in terms of travel costs: Air tourists spent 1,342 euros on their last holiday, including accommodation, while car holidaymakers only spent 736 euros. Opaschowski: "Two thirds of all families go on holiday by car. It's cheap and generally sociable too." Alongside sunshine, safety and beautiful scenery, price is the most important factor when choosing a holiday destination. For many people, only a reasonably priced holiday offer is worth a trip. German citizens are having to be increasingly frugal with their holiday money.

Tennis. Diving. Trekking.
Active holidays remain a trend

Holidaymakers actually want to relax and take things easy: No more stress and no more hustle and bustle. That is the wishful thinking. However, the reality of holidays shows that many holidaymakers cannot bear the - sudden - peace and quiet for long and quickly long for activity again. The holiday regions that want to avoid boredom thrive on this.
The holiday philosophy of the 21st century also includes the motto "holiday time is active time". On holiday, people want to overcome the inertia and comfort of everyday life, do lots of things and exercise. The range of active holidays on offer is correspondingly diverse. Is it being utilised? In cooperation with the Hamburg trade fair "Reisen", BAT tourism researchers also investigated this question. Two thirds of all holidaymakers (66%) go swimming regularly. More than one in three (36%) have discovered hiking, mountaineering and trekking as a holiday experience. And almost one in five holidaymakers (19%) choose holiday regions where they can go diving, sailing or surfing.
Just as large as the proportion of water sports enthusiasts is the group of cyclists and mountain bikers (19%). In contrast, horse riding and golf (2% each) almost lead a shadowy existence. Surprisingly, this also applies to winter sports: only two in a hundred holidaymakers (2%) are enthusiastic about skiing or snowboarding, while the proportion of fans of new health sports such as yoga and Pilates is now twice as high (4%). Of course, active holidays are also a question of money. You have to be able to afford some sports. Among non-active holidaymakers, low-income earners with a net household income of less than 1,000 euros are therefore six times more likely (31%) than those with higher incomes of over 3,500 euros (5%).
Active holidays remain a trend. 86 per cent of Germans were active and on the move on their last holiday. Only one in seven (14%) preferred to be lazy and simply wanted to be left alone on holiday. Opaschowski: "In individual cases, a special holiday achievement can also consist of being demonstratively lazy and living the day away."

Travel intentions 2009.
Holidaymakers on hold: the "undecided" camp as a tourism challenge

In 2009, the economic crisis will also affect tourism, which will be felt by providers in the coming winter season in particular. Around two in five German citizens (42.2%) have already made up their minds about travelling. However, the proportion of the population who are uncertain in times of recession and do not yet know whether they will be travelling in 2009 is exceptionally high (34.8%). Opaschowski: "When the economy is doing badly and there is a threat of short-time working and job losses, employees cannot go on holiday with peace of mind. They simply have to wait and see." German citizens on hold will be the major challenge facing the tourism industry in 2009.
But even in times of crisis, there will be winners and losers. The winner of the coming travel season is already clear: Germany will remain the No. 1 holiday destination in 2009. Every fourth German citizen (25.8%) definitely wants to go on holiday in their own country this year. Mediterranean destinations such as Spain (8.2%), Italy (5.5%) and Turkey (5.2%) are the next most popular holiday destinations. And there is currently little to suggest that the holiday destination Austria (3%) will make it back into the top 3. It is more likely that Greece or Croatia will join Turkey in the top group.
2009 will be a turning point for the tourism industry. The decades-old formula for success, "We save money on holidays last", is facing its greatest test. In these difficult times, Germans are developing a new understanding of prosperity and want to secure their quality of life in the long term rather than just increase their standard of living. Holidays remain a part of quality of life, but the coming 2009 travel season will give little cause for great hope. Rather, people are starting to think about how they can find that "little holiday happiness" even when their budget is tight. Very few people want to do without it. Because during the best days of the year, people realise how much happiness they miss out on in their everyday lives. Happiness has no plural: travelling remains the most popular form of happiness.

Technical data of the TA 2009 survey.
Results of the 25th German Tourism Analysis

Number and representation of respondents: Germany, 4,000 people aged 14 and over
Survey period: January 2009
The study Deutsche Tourismusanalyse (TA 2009) on the travel destinations of 2008 and the travel intentions of Germans in 2009 can be ordered for Euro 14.80 (either as a script or as a PDF document); order). In addition to the latest analyses and forecasts on travel behaviour in 2008/2009, the study also contains presentations on the key topics of "Holiday costs", "Means of travel" and "Active holidays".