What German citizens expect for 2021 - a small majority is confident

At the end of the year, the unemployment rate in Germany will be just under 6 percent, roughly one percentage point higher than in the record year of 2019. However, it should be remembered that the rate was 6.4 percent in 2015, 7.7 percent in 2010, and even 11.7 percent in 2005. While the gross domestic product (GDP) will be around 6 percent below the previous year's level, it will still be the fourth highest in the history of the Federal Republic. A 5 percent increase in GDP is expected for 2022, which would result in the second-highest figure ever achieved.

Despite all these facts, more than three out of four citizens (77%) are concerned about economic developments in 2021. Women and those aged 40-59 (82% each) are particularly pessimistic.

For years, the question "More or less Europe?" has divided the population. Currently, around a third (32%) hope that Europe will continue to grow together in order to jointly address challenges such as climate change, migration, economic development, internal and external security, societal divisions, and maintaining living standards and quality of life. In contrast, the proportion of Eurosceptics remains high. Older Germans (60+ years: 73%) in particular see Brexit as just the beginning and expect a Europe to drift apart.

In times of crisis, trust in political representatives usually increases. For example, George Bush recorded his highest approval ratings after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Gerhard Schröder's media-effective crisis management during the floods secured his re-election in 2002, and Angela Merkel also increased her popularity ratings thanks to her response to the Fukushima disaster.

Although public support for the measures implemented to combat the coronavirus pandemic is currently high, 77 percent of Germans expect their approval ratings for elected representatives to decline in 2021. Many citizens still feel misunderstood or unresponsive, and believe that politicians are more concerned with self-promotion than with constructively solving problems. Consequently, they turn away in disappointment or frustration, reacting with indifference and resignation, or venting their anger outside of elections at demonstrations.

The more trust in politics and the economy declined in recent years, the closer people grew together again. Currently, however, the limited opportunities for contact with family, friends, and neighbors are having a negative impact on social cohesion as a whole. Nearly two-thirds therefore expect an increasing polarization of people in Germany.

• Fear of the future vs. hope for the future: In a 5-year comparison, future optimism has increased by seven percentage points, although in 2015 the older generation in particular expressed skepticism (55+ years: 36%).
• Recession vs. economic upswing: Despite the economic impact of the pandemic, belief in an economic recovery has increased by three percentage points compared to 2015.
• More Europe vs. less Europe: Even though the figures remain low, a slightly positive trend towards greater acceptance of Europe in Germany is emerging.
• Trust in politicians vs. disillusionment with politicians: Trust in politicians has increased by ten percentage points compared to five years ago. Whether this is due to the current crisis or represents a lasting turnaround remains to be seen.
• Civic solidarity vs. selfishness in the population: The only indicator that has declined compared to 2015 is the belief in civic cohesion. Across all population groups, concerns about increasing social and human coldness are growing.

The coronavirus pandemic has Germany firmly in its grip, leading to widespread uncertainty and numerous unanswered questions. How long will the current restrictions remain in place? Are jobs and incomes secure? When will large segments of the population be vaccinated, and how reliable are the vaccines? Can politicians, scientists, and media representatives be trusted? Will life ever return to the way it was before the outbreak?

Even though reliable answers to these questions are not currently possible, one thing is already certain: there will be life after Corona. Citizens will be able to see each other and meet again. Cinemas, theaters, and restaurants will reopen, hotels will welcome tourists, students will attend classes without masks, and employees will return to their workplaces. Only the question of when remains open.

Furthermore, it should not be forgotten that crises – despite all their negative and tragic consequences – can also bring about positive developments. For example, the Spanish flu led to universal healthcare, more intensive cooperation between countries, welfare organizations, and the advancement of science, resulting in a flourishing economy in the "Roaring Twenties." It is therefore time to look ahead and ask: What can each individual do in these times of crisis to shape a positive future for everyone? This includes both our own behavior and putting our own needs aside, as well as generally demonstrating more trust and confidence.