Farewell to a growth market: Have the limits of borderless travel been reached?

Results of the BAT vacation study 89/90

Germans, often described as world champions of boundless travel, are increasingly reaching the limits of their travel aspirations. Only 19.5 million German citizens took an extended vacation of at least two weeks last year, 1989. This represented a mere 40 percent of the population. Compared to the preceding years of 1988 (441%) and 1987 (471%), this represents a sharp decline of 4 and 7 percentage points, respectively. For the tourism industry, accustomed to growth rates, this is a significant setback. A decrease of 4 percentage points translates to approximately 2 million fewer vacationers. This is one of the findings of a tourism study recently published by the B·A·T Leisure Research Institute, based on 4,000 interviews conducted in January.

Only one type of travel has remained relatively stable in recent years: shorter trips lasting 2 to 13 days. Those who can no longer afford a two-week trip turn to this "secondary vacation market," saving money without having to forgo travel altogether. In 1989, one in seven Germans (14 %) took "only" shorter trips (1988: 11 %). This amounted to 6.8 million Germans.

A total travel intensity of 54 percent is thus contrasted with a non-travel intensity of 46 percent. This means that 22.5 million German citizens did not even take a short trip of at least two days in 1989 and were content with a staycation.

But even those who could travel had to make sacrifices. Over three-quarters of the population (77%) could no longer afford a three-week trip. And three out of five Germans (60%) also had to forgo a two-week trip. Professor Dr. Horst W. Opaschowski, head of the BAT Institute, commented: „Germans still cherish a nice vacation, but it has become too expensive. The more political boundaries fall, the more people encounter the financial limits of their freedom to travel.“

Germany: Germans' favorite holiday destination

Germany remains the most popular travel destination for German citizens. One in three vacationers who traveled for at least two weeks last year stayed within Germany. Upper Bavaria/Allgäu (10) ranked far ahead of the North Sea (6), the Black Forest (5), and the Baltic Sea (3).

However, it's also undeniable that, despite the popularity of German travel destinations, the proportion of domestic tourists fell from 37 to 33 percent compared to the previous year. The North Sea coast and southern holiday regions such as the Palatinate, the Bergstrasse, and the Fichtel Mountains each experienced a decline of 2 percentage points in the past travel season. This means that approximately one million fewer tourists chose these regions as their travel destination. The northern German holiday regions away from the coast also suffered losses. Only the Black Forest recorded a slight increase.

Foreign travel destinations benefited from this development. Even East Germany, as a travel destination for German tourists, was able to increase its share from 1 to 2 percent in 1989. However, Spain (16) still topped the list of foreign travel destinations. The second and third most popular destinations were Italy (12) and Austria (10), with a significant lead over Yugoslavia (7), Greece (6), Turkey, and France (both 5). Greece was the biggest winner of the 1989 holiday season: the classic travel destination increased the number of German tourists from approximately 2 million to around 3 million in the 1988/89 period.

1989: Little response to environmental problems

1989 was a year of major environmental problems for the tourism industry. Water pollution and algal blooms raised serious concerns about the holiday season. How did tourists actually react to these environmental problems? The BAT study reveals the following:

  • One in four holidaymakers (25) thoroughly researched the environmental situation at their holiday destination. However, this average figure only inadequately reflects the actual situation. Families with children showed the highest sensitivity to environmental problems (35), while singles (20) and young people (16) showed the least. Those who bear no responsibility for others apparently travel the most carelessly.
  • Two-thirds of holidaymakers (65 %) who had thoroughly informed themselves about the environmental situation at their destination still wanted nothing to do with it. They did not allow it to affect their further holiday planning.
  • The remaining third (34 %), however, admitted to changing their holiday habits, for example, by no longer swimming in the sea or even traveling to a different destination. Specifically, out of 100 holidaymakers, only 3 changed their habits and another 5 traveled to a different destination.

Compared to the previous year, the feared major changes have not materialized. Even in 1988, 4 out of 100 vacationers chose a different destination due to environmental problems. A change in awareness of the problem does not automatically translate into different behavior. For example, 70 percent of those traveling to Italy did not bother to thoroughly research the environmental situation at their holiday destination. And only 5 out of 100 vacationers in Italy refrained from swimming in the sea.

Holiday satisfaction: Only the prices were a problem

It is therefore not surprising that Germans were exceptionally satisfied with the past travel season. Even in retrospect, only 12 percent of vacationers were truly dissatisfied with the environmental situation at their holiday destination. In contrast, one in four travelers (23 percent) complained about the prices, and 13 percent felt that the holiday areas were too crowded. Those vacationing in Spain, in particular, complained about the value for money (38 percent) and the overcrowded beaches (27 percent). Overall, however, Germans gave their 1989 holidays an average rating of 1.8, with the German low mountain ranges receiving the highest marks domestically, while Switzerland and the USA fared best abroad.

A net income for two weeks: Illusion

For the first time, BAT leisure researchers asked about the total cost of a vacation trip. According to their definition, travel expenses include not only travel and accommodation costs, but also all incidental expenses such as food, drinks, tips, shopping, excursions, and souvenirs.

The surveyed vacationers who traveled for at least two weeks in 1989 spent an average of DM 1,267 per person. However, depending on their personal circumstances, the cost of the vacation varied considerably.

  • Young people travel the cheapest. Last year they spent less than 1,000 DM on their holidays. They spent an average of 930 DM per person.
  • Families with children also have to manage their travel budget carefully. Last year, they spent 949 DM per person on their holidays: a family vacation with two children, however, costs 3,800 DM. And when the children get older, a family vacation together is hardly affordable for many average earners. In 1989, a family vacation with two teenagers cost an average of 5,300 DM, or 1,325 DM per person.
  • Singles and couples without children or teenagers spend the most money on vacation. A single person's vacation cost DM 2,123 last season, while a vacation for two cost DM 1,852 per person.

Against this backdrop, it becomes understandable why one in three young women and one in two young men aged 18 to 29 believe that sports, hobbies, and vacations are more important to them than marriage and starting a family. The calculation is clear: those who start a family must reduce their vacation time by half, spending only 949 DM instead of 2,123 DM on their holidays. Opaschowski: "Those who start a family must be prepared to make significant sacrifices in terms of vacation comfort and leisure time."„

Long-distance travel destinations inevitably represent the largest single expense in the travel budget. Considering the countries chosen by at least 2 percent of German vacationers, it is no surprise that the USA tops the list of the most expensive destinations. The total cost of a trip to the USA in 1989 averaged DM 2,995 per person.

Turkey (DM 1,745), Greece (DM 1,713), and Spain (DM 1,708) are almost tied in the ranking of the most expensive foreign destinations. A family of four choosing one of these holiday regions must expect total costs of around DM 7,000. "No average earner can afford this amount from their regular income," says Professor Opaschowski, "holiday travel is for the well-to-do, but no longer a luxury for everyone."„

In 1989, the most expensive domestic holiday destinations were the Black Forest and Lake Constance (1,408 and 1,417 DM respectively), while the cheapest holidays were spent in the inland regions of northern Germany (829 DM per person).

Holidays on credit are a legend.

Modern vacation essentials include Eurocheques and credit cards, but "holidays on credit" are a myth. Germans prefer to stay home on vacation rather than travel on credit. Only 2 percent overdraw their accounts, and none of those surveyed were willing to take out a loan. The American motto "travel now, pay later" is apparently perceived as unsound by Germans.

One in three vacationers (33%) finances their trip from savings. Another 29% of Germans set aside extra money each month for their planned trip. Thirty percent of Germans finance their vacation from their regular income. This, of course, depends on income level. For example, one in two self-employed individuals and freelancers (50%) live off their regular income while on vacation, compared to only 28% of blue-collar workers.

Teenagers have their parents finance 70 percent of their holidays, and one in seven 18- to 24-year-olds earns additional money through part-time jobs so they don't have to miss out on the trip.

It's worth noting that Germans are consistent when it comes to financing their holidays. As a rule, they only travel once they have saved or earned enough. The money has to be available beforehand, or they forgo the trip altogether.

Travel plans 1990: Are Germans becoming tired of traveling?

At the beginning of 1989, 42 percent of West German citizens aged 14 and over expressed their intention to pack their suitcases for a holiday of at least two weeks. In reality, however, only 40 percent actually followed through on their intention.

And 1990 will hardly go down in travel history as a record year. A third of German citizens (33) answered the question about a possible extended vacation this year with a clear "no." Never before in the last six years has there been such a high percentage of potential travel refusals at the start of a vacation season as this year. The lowest percentage of "no" votes was recorded in 1987 (27) – a year that also became the record year to date.

At the start of the 1990 travel season, only two out of five Germans (40) had a firm intention of taking a vacation of at least two weeks. As the 1990s approached, it became clear that the white clouds of the "white industry" were casting ever longer shadows. Social inequalities in the vacation market were intensifying. The BAT study demonstrated that while the majority of the population had to curb their desire to travel, higher earners were traveling more and more. While a well-paid middle class remained steadfast in its positive travel intentions in 1990 (employees: 57 – civil servants: 62), the number of blue-collar workers (36), the unemployed (27), and pensioners (23) lagged significantly behind.

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Ayaan Güls
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