Travel year 1993: Recession curbs desire to travel.
Is the East German travel boom coming to an end?

Last year, the unfavourable overall economic situation also dampened Germans' desire to travel. This is the result of the fourth all-German tourism analysis by the BAT Leisure Research Institute, which has now surveyed 5,000 German citizens aged 14 and over about their holiday behaviour in 1993 and their travel intentions for 1994. According to the survey, 60 per cent of West Germans (1992: 61 %) and 59 per cent of East Germans (1992: 66 %) went on holiday last year. West Germans spent an average of 16.5 days travelling, while East Germans only spent 13.0 days. While the travel behaviour of West Germans hardly changed compared to the previous year, there are signs that the East German travel boom is coming to an end.

Since German reunification, the proportion of East Germans travelling on holiday has steadily increased. However, a trend reversal became apparent last year: Shorter trips of up to 14 days in particular saw a significant drop. And only 40 per cent of the East German population took a longer holiday trip, while 41 per cent stayed at home on holiday (1992: 34 %). The proportion of non-travellers in 1993 was therefore just as high as in 1990, shortly before German reunification. Falling real incomes, the ongoing recession and rising unemployment figures are leaving their mark: „For many East Germans, the question is no longer how often and for how long they should travel, but whether they can travel at all,“ says Prof. Dr Horst W. Opaschowski, Director of the BAT Institute.

The holiday market is increasingly becoming a mirror image of the labour market. A two-tier society is emerging nationwide: most people not in employment had to stay at home on holiday in 1993 (pensioners: 59 % - unemployed: 61 %). Those in employment, however, were keen to travel - depending on their occupation and income group. Two out of five blue-collar workers (40 %) stayed at home on holiday in 1993, whereas only one in four white-collar workers or civil servants (27 %) and one in seven senior managers and senior civil servants (16 %) did so.

Destinations 1993:
Bavaria on a downward trend - Spain less in demand

For two out of five Germans (41 %), Germany was once again their favourite holiday destination in 1993 - as it was in 1992 (42 %). At first glance, the proportion of domestic travellers appears relatively stable. Germany „has“ its regular holidaymakers. In each of the last two years, 39% of West German travellers have been on holiday in their own country. Although this proportion declined among East Germans in 1993, at 51 per cent it was still well above the national average. However, even „regular holidaymakers“ can become a brake on growth if it is not possible to attract younger visitors. Domestic holidays have become the domain of the older generation. Twice as many older people (over 65s: 62 %) as younger people (14 to 29-year-olds: 31 %) holidayed in their own country in 1993. This is a challenge for domestic tourism as a whole.

The Bavarian holiday regions of Eastern Bavaria/Upper Bavaria/Allgäu, although still „the“ domestic destination, have been steadily losing favour with holidaymakers for the past three years. The rush of East German visitors to Bavaria is on a clear downward trend (1991: 16 % - 1992: 12 % - 1993: 11 %). West German holidaymakers are also increasingly losing interest in Bavarian lakes and mountains (1991: 11 % - 1992: 9 % - 1993: 8 %).

In contrast, the German coastal holiday regions have recorded relatively stable shares over the last three years. One in seven German holidaymakers chose the North Sea (7 %) or the Baltic Sea (7 %) as their holiday destination last year. There was also a slight increase in interest among West Germans in East German holiday destinations. With the improved tourist infrastructure, the East German holiday regions are beginning to catch up. In 1993, the new federal states as a whole attracted as many West German holidaymakers as the Black Forest (5 % each). However, the proportion of East German holidaymakers, at 16 per cent, continued to decline last year.

There was little change in the traditional ranking of German holiday destinations abroad in 1993. However, Spain (10 %), Austria (8 %) and Italy (7 %) suffered slight losses as the main holiday destinations. In Spain, this was mainly due to the absence of East German holidaymakers (minus 4 percentage points), while West Germans were responsible for the decline in Italy (minus 2 percentage points). The other European holiday destinations remained at the previous year's level in terms of popularity among Germans. Neither Greece, France nor Turkey were able to match the increases of recent years. The same applies to non-European destinations, which were visited by 8 per cent of German holidaymakers in 1993 (West: 9 % - East: 4 %), compared to seven per cent in 1992. The USA remained the most important holiday destination (3 %), followed by Tunisia/Morocco (2 %) and the Caribbean (1 %).

Travelling intentions 1994:
Unbroken desire to travel among West Germans

Despite all the talk of a crisis, West Germans are more determined to travel in 1994 than they have been for many years. A slight majority of the West German population definitely wants to go on holiday in 1994 - an exceptionally high increase in the desire to travel compared to previous years (1994: 54 % - 1993: 46 %).

Such an increase has more psychological than economic causes. The impending travel boom is more like a defiant reaction on the part of West Germans who want to „know it one more time“. Prof Opaschowski comments: „Out of the recession, away from the economic crisis is the goal, the holiday destination is almost a minor matter. But next year, the tourism industry could also feel the effects of the consumer's red pencil.“

The East German population is already pulling the emergency brake this year: the seemingly unstoppable rise in East German travel enthusiasm has peaked and passed its peak for the time being. There is less room in 1994 (51 %) for last year's travel euphoria (54 %). And one in five East Germans (21 % - 1993: 14 %) already know that they do not want to or cannot travel this year.

Everything points to this: West Germans are „still“ immune to the effects of recession and crisis in their travel plans. Their desire to travel is unbroken, but their travel budget is certainly limited. The tourism industry may be pleased about more bookings, but should not rely on higher travel spending. This applies in particular to the East German holiday market, where record bookings are no longer expected this year.

Destinations 1994:
More domestic travel, especially among East Germans

In 1994, an opposing trend is emerging: West Germans want to take fewer domestic holidays, while East Germans want to take more. After last year's disappointing German summer, three quarters of West German holidaymakers want to turn their backs on their own country again. True to the motto „If you're going to go on holiday, then go to the sun“, they have their sights set primarily on sunny destinations. Only a quarter want to go on holiday in their own country in 1994. The proportion of East German holidaymakers who will forego trips abroad in the coming year and plan their holidays in Germany is significantly higher (39 % - 1993: 34 %). Most of them are travelling to the old federal states (28 %), with the remainder (11 %) choosing the new federal states as their destination.

Sunshine destinations dominate among Germans planning to travel abroad in 1994. For West Germans, Spain (13 %), Italy (8 %), Greece (4 %) and the USA (4 %) are the top destinations for the ’94 travel season, while East Germans favour Austria (9 %), Scandinavia (7 %) and Italy (7 %).

Turkey, the rising star of recent years, cannot expect any major growth rates. Only 3 per cent of Germans intend to choose Turkey as a holiday destination in 1994. Even the Scandinavian north (4 %) can outstrip Turkey in this respect.

The USA remains attractive as the No. 1 long-haul destination - in terms of price and supply. The really big travel boom is still to come for the USA in the next few years, when the economic outlook improves and tourists can play it safe again.

The results of the BAT tourism analysis lead to the conclusion that West Germans in particular are currently managing to square the circle almost like world champions: Their real income is falling, but their desire to travel is increasing. Professor Opaschowski: „Today, going on holiday is part of the basic equipment of a good life. For many, it is a ‚must‘ for personal motivation - so people are saving elsewhere, e.g. on everyday purchases from clothes to cars.“

Atmosphere, performance, safety.
Is Germany losing its competitive edge in tourism?

5,300 Europeans from Germany, France and the Benelux countries of the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg were asked by the BAT Leisure Research Institute for their opinion on what a destination or holiday destination should offer holidaymakers. The results show that for more than two thirds of respondents, a beautiful landscape (72 %) and good value for money (68 %) are at the top of the list of expected quality features, followed by cleanliness and a healthy climate (48 % each). In fifth place (45 per cent) is the foreigner-friendliness of the destination as an important decision criterion - ahead of the appeal of the available sights (43 %).

Against the backdrop of last year's events, the guarantee of safety at the holiday destination (41 %) has now achieved the same level of importance as the guarantee of sunshine (40 %) or good tourist infrastructure (38 %). In contrast, a high standard of environmental protection is surprisingly less important, with only 18 per cent of the Europeans surveyed considering it a decisive factor when choosing a holiday destination.

If you measure Germany as a travel destination against this catalogue of quality, the BAT survey shows: While the classic qualities such as beautiful scenery, good infrastructure, interesting sights and German cleanliness were confirmed by the vast majority of Europeans surveyed, only one in two Europeans said that Germany offered good value for money. This means that this second most important selection criterion slips to the penultimate place in the assessment of Germany. Germany also performs comparatively poorly in terms of friendliness towards foreigners. At 53 per cent, this is only the eighth most important quality feature of a holiday in Germany. The Dutch (30 %) and, surprisingly, the Germans themselves (46 %) are the least convinced of this. On the other hand, the safety of German holiday destinations (56 %) and the high environmental standard (71 %) are positive, although this is only a secondary selection criterion for the Europeans surveyed.

A direct comparison of the neighbouring countries Germany and France clearly shows Germany's strengths and weaknesses in tourism. The only areas in which Germany performs noticeably better as a holiday destination are cleanliness (+31), safety (+14) and environmental standards (+31). According to Prof. Opaschowski, Germany is in danger of offering „tourist qualities in the wrong place“. Travellers find a high standard of environmental protection in Germany - at a high price that is too high for many Europeans. And Germany gives travellers a safety guarantee at their holiday destination, but does not give them the feeling of a welcoming and foreigner-friendly destination.

The new realism of travelling.
The „perfect holiday world“ no longer exists

The ’93 holiday season brought sobering results. Tourists around the world were increasingly the target of aggression and victims of violence and crime. The philosophy of the „best weeks of the year“ is in a deep crisis. The gulf between brochure and reality, between the promise of an ideal holiday world and the reality of a holiday as a risky private affair, contributes significantly to the insecurity of tourists in Europe.

Almost every second European surveyed (45 %) is now of the opinion that „tourists are less and less welcome guests and increasingly often victims of crime“. And 53 per cent of Germans are of the opinion: „Tourism sells an ‚ideal world‘ that has not existed for a long time“. Holidaymakers don't just want the famous tan, they also want to return home with their skin intact. When in doubt, they opt for safety over sunshine. No holiday region can afford to be a risk area for holidaymakers in the long term. Or should holidaymakers in future flee to perfectly organised holiday worlds that are artificial but fenced in and guarded around the clock?

The light and dark sides of tourism

2,600 German citizens aged 14 and over were asked to give their opinion on the topic „Is tourism a blessing or a curse?“ and take a stand. Views, opinions and statements on the benefits and harms, advantages and disadvantages were presented to the respondents in the form of formulated statements for their decision. Half of the statements consisted of possible opportunities and half of possible risks. In the very subjective assessment of the population, tourism development today goes hand in hand with a gain in material prosperity and a loss of cultural identity.

On the opportunities side, it is undisputed that tourism creates many jobs in the countries travelled to. 92 per cent of Germans consider the creation of jobs to be the most important achievement of the tourism service industry. In connection with this, tourism has become an important source of income for the inhabitants of many countries and, in the opinion of the vast majority of the population, it has created many jobs.

(86 %) has brought social security to the inhabitants. 81 per cent of the population are also convinced that tourism has become the most important source of livelihood in many holiday regions and has significantly improved the quality of life of residents. A small majority of the population (57 %) also associate the global expansion of tourism with the hope that holiday trips are a way of achieving greater understanding and bringing people in industrialised and developing countries closer together.

The mobility of millions of tourists and means of transport also has its downsides. Nature and the environment suffer particularly from the effects of tourism. 85 per cent of the population cite the destruction of nature and the environment through hotel construction, water pollution, the destruction of coastal and mountain regions and deficiencies in waste disposal as the greatest negative consequences of tourism. In addition to the ecological problems, there are also socio-cultural consequences. Almost two thirds of the population (63 %) are of the opinion that tourism has a negative impact on the attitudes and behaviour of locals - from the increase in prostitution to people's declining self-esteem. And every second German citizen (52 %) also blames tourism for the decline of traditions, customs and traditions in the countries travelled to.

More prosperity does not necessarily create more well-being. And the greater material prosperity brought about by tourism has not made the inhabitants of the holiday destinations happier and more satisfied (57 %). The overall assessment of the population with regard to the effects of tourism is therefore both sober and realistic: Tourism makes travellers, not necessarily those who have travelled, happier. Tourism is a guarantee for greater material prosperity in a country, but it is no guarantee for the well-being of its inhabitants.

Technical data of the survey 4. overall German tourism analysis

Number and representation of respondents: Germany, 5,000 people aged 14 and over (4,000 West - 1,000 East)
Survey period: 7 to 21 January 1994
Survey institute: Sample Institut, Mölln

Technical data of the survey 2. European tourism analysis

Number and representation of respondents: Belgium, France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands
1,000 people aged 15 and over in each case, in Germany 1,300 people aged 14 and over
Survey period: 6 August to 30 September 1993
Survey institutes:
S.A. Marketing unit N.V. in Brussels for Belgium
SAMPLE Institut GmbH in Mölln for Germany
TMO Consultants in Paris for France
ILRES/Institut Luxembourgeois de Recherches Sociales et d'Etudes de                
Marches S.A. in Luxembourg for Luxembourg
NIPOS/Het Nederlandes Institut voor de Publiche opinien                         
het Markt-Onderzoek B.V. in Amsterdam for the Netherlands