How child-friendly is Europe? Denmark in the lead - Germany at the bottom 

Current research, 244

6 February 2013

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The Foundation for Future Issues presents the 29th German Tourism Analysis

Travel summary 2012:
Germans' desire to travel continues to rise.

Holiday travel retained its fascination in 2012, and Germans' desire to travel remained unbroken. Overall, the travel intensity of German citizens increased – for the fourth year in a row – to its current level of 54 percent. This is according to the 29th German Tourism Analysis by the BAT Foundation for Future Issues, in which a representative sample of 4,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were surveyed about their holiday behavior in 2012 and their travel plans for 2013.
Travel activity has increased particularly among those over 55, with more than half of them having traveled in the past 12 months. Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, Scientific Director of the BAT Foundation for Future Issues, explains: „Experienced generations are shaping tourism – they have the time, money, and enjoyment of travel. The trend of taking vacations well into old age continues. Now, it's not just many 50- to 64-year-olds who travel, but one in three people over 75 packs their bags at least once a year.“.

Domestic travel destinations 2012:
Germany is booming – the Baltic Sea and Bavaria are neck and neck.

Germany remains by far the most popular travel destination for Germans. Last season, almost two out of five citizens spent their main vacation between Flensburg and Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Even though the growth rates of recent years have slowed, the trend towards domestic holidays continues unabated.
The rivalry between Bavaria and the Baltic Sea continued: While the Baltic coast was the most popular travel destination for Germans in 2010, Bavarian holiday regions took the lead in 2011. In 2012, both holiday regions were on par, with the Baltic Sea showing growth while Bavaria narrowly missed its previous year's level. The holiday regions on the North Sea and in Baden-Württemberg proved relatively stable, welcoming roughly the same number of guests as the previous year.

Foreign travel destinations 2012:
Spain remains in first place ahead of Italy and Turkey.

Spain remains a popular destination for foreign travelers. The Balearic Islands, in particular, which welcomed as many visitors as the whole of Italy, are very popular with German tourists. However, the proportion of German tourists in all Spanish holiday regions declined compared to the previous year. This benefited both Italy, in second place, and Turkey, in third, both of which recorded increases. France and Scandinavia also enjoyed rising visitor numbers in 2012. In contrast, the decline in tourist numbers continued in Greece. Within just three years, the proportion of German holidaymakers, both on the Greek islands and on the mainland, has halved (2009: 3.31 million – 2012: 1.71 million).
In 2012, roughly one in nine Germans flew to destinations outside Europe. Despite slight overall gains (+0.41 per capita), more Germans still travel to Spain than to all long-haul destinations combined. Among non-European destinations, North Africa – especially Tunisia – was able to regain some market share for the first time since the Arab Spring (+0.81 per capita). However, the situation remains highly dependent on political and economic developments in the region. Destinations in Central America and the Caribbean, as well as in the Middle East, also recorded increases. In contrast, the USA and – for the first time in years – Asian destinations such as China, Thailand, and India experienced declines in the number of German travelers.

Trip duration 2012:
The travel time decreases further – the closer you get, the shorter the journey time.

Germans still cherish their holidays, but they now only last a little over 12 days. They are unwilling and unable to dedicate more time to what they consider "the best weeks of the year." This downward trend of recent years continues slowly but steadily. Compared to 1990, the average vacation time is now four days shorter. A direct correlation can be observed between the duration of the trip and the distance to the destination. Despite the prevalence of budget airlines, the principle remains: the further away the destination, the longer the stay. Within Germany, vacationers spent an average of less than ten days at their holiday destination (9.8 days). In contrast, vacations in other European countries lasted three days longer (12.8 days), and long-haul trips, averaging more than two and a half weeks (18.4 days), took twice as long as domestic holidays.

Travel expenses 2012:
Türkiye is significantly cheaper than Spain

Germans spent an average of €1,093 on their holidays last season, around €80 more than the previous year. This figure included not only travel and accommodation costs, but also all other expenses – from day trips and entrance fees to restaurant visits and shopping trips, as well as souvenirs and tips.
The distribution of actual travel costs across holiday destinations proved revealing. As expected, total costs increased almost in parallel with distance and length of stay. A domestic holiday, at €777, cost significantly less than a trip to another European country (€1,136). Holidays outside Europe were considerably more expensive: at €1,954, long-distance travel cost roughly two and a half times as much as a holiday between northern and southern Germany.
Within Europe, destinations reached by private car (e.g., Austria, Italy) tended to be cheaper than destinations reached by air. Two countries stood out in terms of daily costs: Turkey, where daily costs were around ten percent below the European average, and Spain, where these costs significantly exceeded the average. This can be at least partially explained by the Canary Islands, as visiting them is quite expensive due to higher airfares.

Travel forecast 2013:
Trust has returned – Germans are sitting on packed suitcases.

Germans' desire to travel remains strong in 2013, and the tourism industry can expect slight increases once again. One in three Germans is already certain they will travel this year, and another tenth of the population is even planning two or more trips. In contrast, only 22 percent of citizens said they will not be going on vacation this year. 
The number of people who are still uncertain about their travel plans remains consistently high; they would like to travel but are unsure whether they will be able to. Experience from previous years shows that at least a third of these people who are uncertain about traveling do eventually go on vacation during the year. Therefore, there are strong indications that this year's travel volume will exceed the level of 2012.

Travel destinations 2013:
Turkey gains market share, future of Greek holiday resorts remains uncertain

The travel destinations for 2013 clearly show that the trend towards domestic tourism continues. Almost one in four Germans is already planning to spend their main vacation in their own country. Whether holiday regions in Bavaria or on the Baltic Sea coast are visited more frequently will depend, not least, on the weather. A third of Germans are currently planning to travel to other European countries this year. Spain remains the undisputed number one destination, but risks losing further market share. Turkey could benefit from this, having even overtaken Italy in terms of confirmed travel plans. The future of Greek holiday destinations remains uncertain. Currently, less than one percent of Germans plan to spend their 2013 vacation in Greece.

Professor Reinhardt's conclusion regarding the outlook for the 2013 travel season: "Instead of distant lands and warmer climates, 2013 will be all about proximity and nature – and Germany will benefit from this. At the same time, Mediterranean destinations will remain attractive. Price and the image of the holiday destination will ultimately determine where tourists travel. Currently, Greece's reputation is still too negative for Germans to return this summer. The long-haul travel market will continue to be a complement to, not an alternative to, Mediterranean holiday destinations in 2013, because these require not only money but, above all, time. However, all holiday regions – from Bavaria to Bali and from Crete to the Canary Islands – can hope for the large number of undecided travelers. More than one in three Germans is still waiting for the right offer so they can finally pack their bags and escape for the best weeks of the year.".

Technical data of the 29th German Tourism Analysis 2013

Number and representativeness of respondents: Germany, 4,000 people aged 14 and over
Survey period: January 2013
Survey institute: GfK Marktforschung/Nuremberg

Former „Forschung aktuell“ on the topic of „Tourism analysis“

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