Foundation for Future Studies presents 30. German Tourism Analysis 

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5 February 2014

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The Foundation for Future Issues presents the 30th German Tourism Analysis

Travel summary 2013
More travelers – trend towards multiple trips

„"Germans' desire to travel remained strong in 2013, and the tourism industry could once again expect slight gains," predicted the BAT Foundation for Future Issues 12 months ago for the recently concluded travel season. And that's exactly what happened: the travel intensity of Germans increased for the fifth consecutive year in 2013, reaching its current level of 57 percent. This is according to the 30th German Tourism Analysis, for which 4,000 Germans aged 14 and over were surveyed about their vacation behavior in 2013 and their travel plans for 2014.
„The renewed increase can be explained by the strong economic year of 2013, which was characterized by a low unemployment rate and a high export surplus. The worries and anxieties of the population decreased in parallel with this development, and as a consequence, significantly more Germans traveled than in the past,“ said Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, the Scientific Director of the BAT Foundation for Future Issues.
Whether beach vacation, skiing, wellness weekend, cultural trip, sports week, or city break – one in five Germans (201,000) didn't want to limit themselves to just one vacation last season and therefore traveled multiple times. Compared to the previous year, this represents an increase of three percentage points, and in a five-year comparison, almost double the figure (2009: 111,000). Looking solely at the travelers, it becomes clear: those who can afford it are particularly mobile. Around one in four traveled twice, seven percent even three times, and almost one in 25 traveled four times or more.

Domestic travel destinations 2013
Baden-Württemberg gains market share

Germany remained by far the most popular holiday destination for German citizens last season. In 2013, almost two out of five Germans once again spent their holidays between northern and southern Germany. However, for the first time in years, no growth in domestic tourism was recorded – at least not for the main holiday. Among domestic destinations, the Bavarian holiday regions slightly outperformed the Baltic coast in Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. However, like the North Sea coastal areas, the holiday regions in Bavaria and on the Baltic Sea were unable to quite maintain their previous year's levels. In contrast, the Black Forest and Lake Constance regions in Baden-Württemberg saw an increase in visitors and were among the winners of the 2013 travel season. Numerous smaller holiday regions in Germany also recorded rising market shares – including the Mecklenburg Lake District and the Lüneburg Heath, Saxon Switzerland and the Ore Mountains, as well as the Eifel and the Sauerland. 

Foreign travel destinations 2013
Spain gains market share, Italy loses market share

Spain was undoubtedly one of the winners of the past travel season. More than one in eight Germans spent their holidays on the Iberian Peninsula or the Spanish islands in 2013. This means that more Germans traveled to Spain than to all other long-haul destinations combined, and almost twice as many as to third-placed Turkey. While Turkey didn't gain any market share, it did narrow the gap with second-placed Italy, as the regions from South Tyrol to Sicily welcomed fewer German tourists. 
Croatia and the Scandinavian countries also suffered losses, while Poland and the Benelux countries enjoyed increases. For the first time since the outbreak of the crisis, Greek tourist areas around Athens, Crete, and the Peloponnese were able to welcome more tourists from Germany. The extensive image campaign and a good price-performance ratio policy have paid off here. 

Long-haul travel destinations 2013
The fascination with the wider world persists.

More than one in nine Germans traveled to destinations outside Europe in 2013, representing an increase of 5 percent. Despite slight declines, North African holiday destinations proved to be the most popular long-haul destinations. Reinhardt: „Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, the situation in the entire region has remained dependent on local developments. Sun, sand, sea, hospitality, and good value for money alone are not enough to convince tourists. Guaranteed safety on-site remains a prerequisite for visitors to return. This was particularly true for Egypt in the past holiday season: travel warnings, media reports of unrest, and fluctuating political conditions have had a lasting negative impact on the tourism industry along the Nile.“
Far Eastern holiday destinations saw significant gains: whether China, Hong Kong, Thailand, or India – an increasing number of Germans wanted to experience Asian culture. Tourist flows to the Caribbean and Central America shifted slightly back towards the USA and Canada. Not only a favorable exchange rate between the euro and the dollar, but also the inherent allure of the national parks and landscapes, cities, and leisure activities allowed many Germans to fulfill their dream of "visiting North America.". 

Trip duration 2013
Vacation duration reaches new low 

In 1980, German citizens traveled for an average of 18.2 days. In 1990, this figure dropped to 16.3 days, and in 2000 it was still a respectable 14.8 days. Currently, visitors stay for only 12.1 days. "From the most beautiful Weeks of the year are increasingly the most beautiful days of the year. Many German citizens are content with a shorter stay; the main thing is that they are still traveling at all,“ said foundation director Reinhardt.
The equation "the further away, the longer" remained true for the past travel season. Guests stayed less than 10 days in domestic German holiday regions – though they lingered longer on the coasts than in the south of the country. Within Europe, a holiday lasted just under 13 days, although with significant variations: there was almost a week's difference between Austria (9.8 days) and Greece (16.1 days). Long-distance travel was not only a journey to another world geographically, but also temporally: travelers stayed at their destinations for an average of more than two weeks.

Travel expenses 2013
88 EUR per day and person

Germans spent an average of €1,062 per person on their holidays in 2013. This sum included not only travel and accommodation costs but also all incidental expenses: from souvenirs and entrance fees to ice cream for the children and tips for the waiter. Compared to the previous year, total spending decreased slightly (by €31), which can be explained by the generally increasing frequency of travel. A day trip within Europe cost €86, 15 percent less than a day in Germany (€75). Long-distance travel was significantly more expensive: with daily costs of €120, it's no wonder that few Germans could afford this luxury. 

Travel forecast 2014
Almost half are already sitting on packed suitcases.

Anticipation for the 2014 travel season is high. 45 percent, two percentage points more than 12 months ago, are firmly planning to travel this year. Almost one in eight Germans even plans to take multiple trips. However, more than a third of Germans are still unsure whether they will travel at all this year. Past experience shows, however, that at least ten percent of these will take a vacation. Overall, a further increase in travel activity can therefore be expected. Despite all the uncertainty and existing awareness of the crisis, the majority of the population will not want to forgo a vacation in 2014. 

Travel destinations 2014
Spain and Italy can expect growth

Where will Germans travel in 2014? To far-flung destinations – perhaps Canada or the Caribbean, Asia or Africa – or will it be a more traditional beach holiday on the Mediterranean? Perhaps once again to Austria, or maybe a holiday in Germany between the North and Baltic Seas, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg? Almost one in three Germans with firm travel plans is facing this very question and doesn't yet know where they will go this year. Indecisiveness decreases with age. While older Germans are already researching local offers and highlights and enjoying the anticipation, the younger generation prefers to wait for the right offer and then spontaneously decide where to go this year.  
One thing is already certain: Germany will remain by far the most popular travel destination for German citizens in 2014. Despite guaranteed sunshine in Spain or Greece, dream beaches in Turkey or Croatia, and exotic destinations in the South Pacific or Asia, more than one in four are planning their holidays in their own country. However, the peak seems to have been reached, and the rapid growth rate has ended; instead, a stagnation at a high level is emerging.
Among European destinations, Spain's dominance will continue and may even expand. Almost one in ten tourists is already certain they will visit Spanish beaches and cities. Italy, too, is poised for a comeback and can expect growth. The situation is somewhat more subdued for Turkish holiday destinations – negative media coverage in recent months has created uncertainty. However, this can and will change over the course of the year, and Turkey will be able to defend its place among the top three. France, Scandinavia, and Austria can also expect consistent visitor numbers. Greek holiday destinations can be expected to see growth in 2014: German tourists will slowly but surely return to one of their favorite travel destinations.

Technical data of the 30th German Tourism Analysis 2014

Number and representation of respondents: 4,000 people aged 14 and over in Germany
Survey period: January 2014
Survey institute: GfK Marktforschung/Nuremberg

Former „Forschung aktuell“ on the topic of „Tourism analysis“

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