9th All-German Tourism Analysis

Travel Balance 1998
Dampener for the tourism industry: holidays are getting shorter and shorter

Even a rainy summer cannot curb the Germans' desire to travel. As in the previous year, almost one in two Germans (48%) firmly intend to go on holiday in 1999. Despite these positive travel intentions, the tourism industry must look with concern at a fundamental change in the holiday behaviour of Germans: Holidays are becoming shorter and shorter. The length of stay at holiday destinations is falling continuously (1980: 18.2 days - 1990: 16.3 days - 1998: 15.1 days). This is the result of the ninth All-German Tourism Analysis conducted by the Leisure Research Institute of British American Tobacco, in which 5,000 Germans aged 14 and over were asked about their holiday behaviour in 1998 and their travel intentions in 1999.

The coming travel season suggests more stagnation than growth, albeit stagnation at a high level. Are the boom times in tourism over for the time being? "The economic worries have now also reached the tourism industry," says Institute Director Prof Dr Horst W. Opaschowski. "Domestic holiday destinations are feeling the effects of the shortening of holiday periods the most." One in four domestic travellers only stays at their holiday destination for 5 to 13 days. The average length of stay for domestic holidaymakers is 12.9 days, compared to 15.7 days (Europe) and 20.9 days (non-European countries) for holidaymakers travelling abroad.

The duration of the trip depends on the destination: holidaymakers spend 11.3 days in the eastern German holiday regions and 13.0 days in Bavaria. The longest length of stay can be found at holiday destinations on the German North Sea and Baltic coasts: the North Sea is the leader here with an average of 14.7 days, followed by the Baltic coast of Schleswig-Holstein (14.3 days).

The Germans" favourite holiday destination abroad has a significantly higher value: Spain (16.3 days). German holidaymakers invest the most time in long-haul destinations such as the USA (23.1) and the Caribbean (17.5). However, only a minority can afford such time-consuming and expensive long-haul holidays. The vast majority of holidaymakers have to do the maths. "Time" is also "money" on holiday.

West Germans flee abroad - East Germans rediscover "their" holiday destinations

East Germans have successfully exemplified the necessary austerity course of "shortening their stay" for years without losing their desire to travel. Quite the opposite: the travel intensity (5 days and more) of East Germans was also slightly higher last year (55%) than that of West Germans (54%). Their alternative was not: "Balcony instead of Bahamas", but: "Short holiday instead of long holiday". East German holidaymakers travelled for an average of 12.9 days, compared to 15.7 days for West Germans.

An industry spoilt by success has to rethink. Having lived with explosive growth for decades, the travel industry can now almost only hope for growth rates in the low-price segment and for offers with shorter lengths of stay. Professor Opaschowski: "Less is more is the new philosophy of modesty at the end of an expansive tourism century."

Dream holidays and budget holidays are actually contradictory. And yet: most holidaymakers manage the balancing act by opting for a budget trip rather than doing without. Saving on and during holidays is the order of the day. Today, every third German citizen "has to" save money on holiday (30% in the West - 34% in the East) and at the same time save money and time, i.e. shorten the duration of their trip. This is how they save their most popular form of happiness even in difficult economic times. The holiday trip as the last bastion of consumption for Germans is faltering, but it is not falling.

Domestic destinations: Increased cut-throat competition

The most popular domestic holiday destinations are still the Baltic Sea (8%), the North Sea (7%) and Bavaria (7%). Compared to previous years, it is noticeable that the Baltic Sea has now permanently displaced the Bavarian holiday regions from their top position. As recently as 1991, six per cent of all German holidaymakers stayed on the Baltic coast, whereas twice as many (12%) stayed in Bavaria. In the meantime, the ratio has almost reversed.

German reunification has permanently changed the domestic travel market. Cut-throat competition has intensified. West German holiday regions in particular have to fear for their attractiveness. Changes in domestic travel flows are increasingly being determined by East German holidaymakers, as West Germans are increasingly turning their backs on their own country when on holiday. There are signs of a change in mood among East German holidaymakers: Some of them are returning to "their" holiday destinations, which now offer improved infrastructure and higher holiday quality.

Destinations abroad: Spain as the lone frontrunner

Last year, the sun rose almost exclusively in Spain. Every sixth to seventh holiday traveller (15%) chose Spanish climes as their destination, as in the previous year, compared to only 11 percent in the years 1994 to 1996. The increase of over one million additional travellers leaves Spain alone at the top of the list. West Germans in particular are in the grip of Spain fever: the run on Spanish sunshine destinations has seen explosive growth and has no end in sight. Since the mid-seventies, the proportion of West Germans travelling to Spain has almost doubled (1975: 9% - 1995: 12% - 1997: 16% - 1998: 17%). Never before in the history of modern tourism have so many West German holidaymakers travelled to Spain as last year.

The growing attractiveness of Spanish holiday destinations is increasingly causing problems for other European sunshine destinations. Italy is stagnating (1997: 8% - 1998: 8%) and Turkey also has to fear for its share of German holidaymakers (1997: 4% - 1998: 3%). Only Greece gained one percentage point compared to the previous year (1997: 4% - 1998: 5%), but still has to mourn the loss of its peak value from 1990 (6%).
Austria has passed its low point and is obviously on the rise again. The proportion of German holidaymakers in Austria halved between 1990 and 1997 (1990: 10% - 1997: 5%). Last year, Austria's popularity among German holidaymakers rose again for the first time (1998: 6%). Has the downward trend ended?

There are clear financial limits to Germans' desire to travel abroad. Neither the USA nor the Caribbean (including Cuba and the Dominican Republic), with 2 per cent each, were able to increase their share in 1998.

Travelling year 1999
Travel intentions: "Yes, but..." Uncertainty continues

German citizens" mood for the coming travel season remains unchanged: An exact mirror image of last year. Stagnating to falling real incomes and uncertainty about further social security contributions leave Germans little room for manoeuvre when it comes to making big travel plans. Most Germans are cautiously optimistic ("Yes, but...’) about the '99 travel season. As in the previous year, almost one in two Germans (48%) have already decided to travel or have already packed their bags. Compared to the mid-1990s (1994: 53% - 1996: 52%), however, there is no sign of an excessive desire to travel.
 
In 1999, many travelling suitcases will probably have to stay in the cupboard. As in the previous year, almost one in four Germans (23%) will not be travelling at all. No reason to be in a crisis mood, but a boom year is certainly not to be expected. The travel industry must also be concerned about those who are still unsure whether they want to or can travel (1994: 25% - 1999: 29%). The tight travel budget dampens the desire to travel. It has been a long time since Germans have been as uncertain about travelling as they were this year and last year.

Destinations 1999: Interchangeable sun destinations

And where will the journey take us in 1999? The representative survey conducted by the British American Tobacco Leisure Research Institute on the destinations planned for 1999 shows that Three quarters of German citizens with firm travel intentions (75% - last year: 72%) definitely want to travel abroad in 1999. Domestic holiday destinations will then be left behind. Only around one in five Germans (22%) want to go on holiday in their own country.
As in previous years, Spain remains the Germans' favourite travel destination. One in eight Germans who want to travel this year choose this destination (13%). It is followed by Italy (9%) and Austria (8%). However, there is still fierce competition from other holiday destinations - especially Greece (7%), Turkey (5%) and France (4%). Alongside Spain, the winner of 1999 could be Greece in particular.

Tourism in the 21st century: Where we will go on holiday in the future

British American Tobacco's Leisure Research Institute is focussing on "the" question at the turn of the century in its latest tourism analysis: Tourism in the 21st century. What will the holiday paradises of the future look like?

A representative sample of 3,000 people aged 14 and over were asked which travel destinations they think will be trending in the next few years and where they simply "have to" go. All respondents named the Caribbean as the No. 1 trend destination (40%). Australia (29%) and Florida (27%) follow at a clear distance. The Dominican Republic (26%) and the Maldives (26%) are on a par. The Dominican Republic, Australia and South Africa have experienced the greatest increases in attractiveness since the early 1990s (1991): Dominican Republic (+15 percentage points), Australia (+6) and South Africa (+5).

Political and social changes have a noticeable influence on subjective travelling moods and travel plans. This explains why a number of destinations have become less attractive to German holidaymakers. This applies in particular to Russia (1991: 20% - 1998: 7%) and Florida (1991: 34% - 1998: 27%). The tourism trend barometer of the Leisure Research Institute is proving to be a sensitive seismograph.
"At first glance, the answers to the questions of where and how we will go on holiday in the future seem like an open game of fantasy. Many Germans can only describe ‚their‘ holiday destination of the future with one word: different," says Professor Opaschowski. Only when the respondents are given specific guidelines and possible holiday destinations are named do the answers become more concrete.

Trend destinations also have their trendsetters. Travelling preferences change with age and stage of life. Young people aged 14 to 17 currently favour California, Australia and New Zealand more than any other population group. For young people aged 18 to 24, the South Pacific and Thailand, China and Japan are in vogue. For singles, who have more freedom and independence in terms of time and finances than others, the Caribbean, Dominican Republic and South Africa are among the future travel trends. For childless couples, Israel, Kenya and Hong Kong are of particular interest. Families with children are particularly keen on the Maldives. And retirees most appreciate Scandinavia as a holiday destination.

Distance, warmth and space as well as exoticism, the tropics and the Caribbean will determine the travel trends of the future and decide where we want to go on holiday in the future. The travel wishes of Germans range from Nepal to Hawaii, Siberia to California.
"Pure nature" or "theme park holidays": How we will go on holiday in the future

Nature as an experience is increasingly taking centre stage: freedom. Wildness. Adventure. Nature is becoming an event: "Pure nature", i.e. an intensive experience of nature in unspoilt countryside, is the most important holiday wish for the future. More than one in four holidaymakers (27%) express this wish, which becomes more important with increasing age (e.g. 14 to 24-year-olds: 16%; 50 to 64-year-olds: 35%).

Every fifth German citizen (20%) is on holiday in search of wellness oases and wants to do something specifically and systematically for their own well-being. That is more than 12 million German citizens. Opaschowski: "Refuelling, recharging and having fun are key elements of the new wellness wave. Sometimes it's about wellbeing in an exotic ambience and sometimes it's about holidays for body and soul. Vitality, beauty and joie de vivre are challenged and encouraged."

The exotic is the formula under which 16 per cent of the population aged 14 and over would like to see their holiday world. They associate holidays of the future with the Caribbean, the South Seas and the Maldives. In concrete terms, this means: "As far away and as exotic as possible." This is particularly true for the younger generation. The wanderlust of 14 to 29-year-olds for exotic destinations is almost four times as high (26%) as among the 50-plus generation (7%).
Around one in six Germans (16%) want to "get to know more cities and metropolises around the world" in the future. This is particularly true for singles (22%) and childless couples (25%), who have more time and financial resources than other population groups and know how to utilise them.

For 11% of German citizens, artificial holiday worlds are also among the "in" destinations of the future: Attractive theme parks are now visited by over 22 million day trippers in Germany every year. Traditional excursion destinations are becoming new holiday destinations. For the first time in 1997, more visitors flocked to Disneyland to see Mickey Mouse than to the classic attractions of the metropolis of Paris, such as the Louvre, Notre Dame or the Centre Pompidou.
Travelling on the "Dream Ship" to the Caribbean, on board the "Sea Cloud" through the Aegean and on the "Danube Princess" from Passau to Budapest: almost one in ten Germans (9%) are enthusiastic about it. A new generation of cruise travellers who are hungry for life and experiences want to know less and less about dress codes and seating arrangements, rituals and ceremonies. As a result, the middle generation of 25 to 49-year-olds (10%) now see adventure holidays on the water as "the" holiday form of the future more than retirees and pensioners over the age of 65 (7%).

Major events and happenings (‚events‘) in the fields of sport, culture and entertainment with superstars and celebrities will be worth travelling to more often in the future. Every twentieth German citizen (5%) currently sees themselves in the role of the future event tourist - always on the move, restless and in search of new experiences.

Tired of travelling? The ageing society as a challenge for the tourism industry

The population in Germany is ageing dramatically. After 2010, the baby boomers will reach retirement age. Germany will then have one of the highest proportions of old people in the world.

A major challenge for the tourism industry: Compared to all other age groups, the over-65s are the least likely to travel. With increasing age, the desire to travel decreases noticeably. Almost every second senior citizen (45%) aged 65 to 74 no longer wants to travel and is of the opinion: "I generally don't or won't travel - not even in the future." Among the over-80s, as many as two thirds (67%) no longer want to go on holiday.

The ageing society could become a problem for the tourism industry, which is spoilt for success. The proportion of people who refuse to travel is growing: more than one in five Germans no longer want to travel in the future - and the trend is rising (1994: 18% - 1998: 22%). The growing number of those who refuse to travel may also be due to travel fatigue or a lifetime of travel experience: those who have travelled almost everywhere in their lives set different priorities as they get older, focusing more on the quality of life at home and their immediate social environment.

Demographic developments will force the tourism industry to develop offers that are just as attractive to the older generation as they are to the younger generation. And these future forms of tourism are called day trips, weekend breaks and short holidays. If you want to participate in the predicted 350-billion-euro market of the "new seniors" in the future, you will have to offer more one- to four-day holidays. Leisure tourism or short-term tourism has great future and growth opportunities.

See also directory of all publications