Foundation for Future Studies presents 31. German Tourism Analysis 

Current research, 260

4 February 2015

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Foundation for Future Studies presents 31st German Tourism Analysis

Travel summary 2014
Stopover at a high level

In 2014, 57 percent of German citizens went on a vacation of at least five days. Even though the frequency of travel was not higher than the previous year, a look back at recent years clearly shows a trend: travel continues to fascinate the majority of Germans, and there is no end in sight to the travel boom. This is according to the 31st German Tourism Analysis by the BAT Foundation for Future Issues, in which a representative sample of over 4,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were interviewed face-to-face about their vacation behavior in 2014 and their travel plans for 2015.

Summer, sun, seniors
More and more older German citizens are traveling

Demographic trends in Germany are increasingly impacting the tourism sector: Fewer children and families, but more singles and childless couples are shaping the travel landscape. The aging population is having an even greater effect on the industry. Ten years ago, around 25 million people over 55 lived in Germany; now that number has risen to 29 million, and in ten years' time, over 33 million Germans will be considered young retirees and pensioners.
Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, Scientific Director of the BAT Foundation: „"Without this target group, hotels, restaurants and cafes, airlines, railway and bus companies, travel agencies and tour operators already find it difficult to be successful. Therefore, many destinations, providers and travel companies have gradually tailored their offerings to this target group."“
Experienced older generations readily take advantage of these offers and are consequently traveling more and more frequently. While only 44 percent of all retirees traveled ten years ago, it is now almost every second person. This means that older travelers pack their bags almost as often as young adults between the ages of 18 and 24, and even more often than middle-aged singles.
But it's not just those over 65 who are continuously increasing their travel frequency; the "young seniors" between 50 and 64 are also traveling in ever-growing numbers. There are now even more travelers in this demographic than among families, and it probably won't be long before seniors have overtaken childless couples in terms of travel frequency.

Domestic travel destinations 2014
The North is leaving the South behind.

Germany is and remains by far the most popular holiday destination for German citizens. Just as in the past five years, around 37 percent of all main holidays again took place between Flensburg and Garmisch-Partenkirchen.
While the total number of domestic tourists remained the same, travel patterns shifted from south to north. Holiday resorts on the Baltic coast saw around 5 percent more visitors than the previous year, displacing Bavarian destinations from the top spot. Hotels and guesthouses on the North Sea coast also recorded gains, whereas Baden-Württemberg was unable to maintain its previous year's level.
Professor Reinhardt: „"The reasons for the boom on the North and Baltic Seas are manifold and range from an overall more favorable price level to the numerous investments of recent years and the fundamental fascination with the combination of water, sun and beach."“

Foreign travel destinations 2014
Spain remains unchallenged, long-haul destinations are losing ground.

Spain remained the most popular foreign travel destination for German citizens in 2014. During the past travel season, Spain further consolidated its leading position, welcoming more than twice as many tourists as the Italian holiday destinations in second place. For the second year in a row, slightly fewer German citizens chose holiday destinations between South Tyrol and Sicily, thus narrowing Italy's lead over Turkey. Turkey, in turn, managed to maintain its visitor numbers consistently. For the first time in years, Austria recorded an increase in German tourist numbers, and more German citizens also traveled to Greece.
The long-haul travel market retained its appeal, even though, for the first time in years, the number of people taking long-haul trips did not increase further. On the contrary, it even declined slightly. While the North African countries of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia remained popular, they are still 30 percent below the level seen before the Arab Spring. Contrary to the trend of fewer long-haul trips, more Germans were drawn to America; the USA and Canada, in particular, are enjoying increasing popularity.

Trip duration and holiday costs 2014
1,071 EUR for 12.1 days or 89 EUR per day and person

Last year, Germans spent an average of €1,071 on a 12.1-day vacation. This figure included not only travel and accommodation costs, but also all other expenses – from day trips and entrance fees to restaurant meals and shopping trips, as well as souvenirs and tips. Compared to five years ago, the total cost increased by just over €30 (2009: €1,038). However, due to the shorter average length of stay (2009: 13 days), the daily cost rose significantly: by over ten percent, or €10 per day.
The distribution of actual travel costs across different holiday destinations also proved revealing. As expected, total costs increased almost in parallel with distance and length of stay. A domestic holiday, at €728, cost considerably less than a trip to another European country (€1,128). Holidays outside Europe were significantly more expensive: at €1,925, long-distance travel cost more than two and a half times as much as a holiday between northern and southern Germany.
A look at daily costs reveals where vacations were cheapest on average in 2014. While, for example, daily expenses were almost equally low on the North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts, a vacation day in Bavaria cost around €10 more. Within Europe, Croatia proved significantly cheaper than Spain. A vacation starting with a long-haul flight also represents a journey into a different price world: daily costs in North America, for instance, amounted to €131.

Travel forecast 2015
The desire to travel remains unbroken

Germans' desire to travel remains strong in 2015, and tourism operators, destinations, and travel agencies can expect a large number of guests and customers. 44 percent of Germans are already certain they will travel this year; one in eight even plans to pack their bags several times. In contrast, only one in five Germans (19%) has confirmed that they will not be going on vacation this year.
The number of undecided travelers (35%) remains constant; these individuals would like to travel but are unsure whether they can afford it. Past experience shows that at least one in three of these travelers end up going on vacation during the year. Therefore, there are strong indications that travel activity in 2015 will exceed that of the previous year.

Travel destinations 2015
One in three Germans has not yet decided.

Whether it's the Mediterranean, the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Alps, or America – many Germans already know exactly where they'll be traveling this year. Almost one in four Germans plans to spend their 2015 vacation in their own country. More than one in three cites a European destination, and one in ten intends to take a long-haul trip. Spain will once again be the most popular foreign destination, and Italy and Turkey are expected to retain their top spots. Among domestic destinations, the "sea versus mountains" battle continues, with the Baltic Sea likely to emerge victorious once again. 
Currently, a large number of people have firm travel plans but don't yet know where they'll be going this year. One in three Germans hasn't decided yet and is waiting for the right offer to finally start looking forward to the best weeks of the year – because, as everyone knows, they are the best.

Technical data of the 31st German Tourism Analysis 2015

Number and representation of respondents: 4,000 people aged 14 and over in Germany
Survey period: January 2015
Survey institute: GfK Marktforschung/Nuremberg

The evaluation of the 31st German Tourism Analysis 2015 can be found at www.tourismusanalyse.de on the Internet. A free PDF download of the complete study is also available there.
The comprehensive analysis of the travel behavior of Germans contains data on travel destinations, travel duration, travel costs and trends for 2014 as well as forecasts for 2015.

Former „Forschung aktuell“ on the topic of „Tourism analysis“

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