Foundation for Future Studies presents 32nd German Tourism Analysis 

Current research, 267

17. February 2016

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You can find the latest study in detail on our Format website.

Foundation for Future Studies presents 32nd German Tourism Analysis

Holiday frustration instead of wanderlust

Uncertainty has reached the tourism industry. For the first time in years, the intensity with which Germans are travelling has fallen. This is the conclusion of the 32nd German Tourism Analysis by the BAT-FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE QUESTIONS. For the study, a representative cross-section of the German population - over 4,000 people aged 14 and over - were asked about their own travel behaviour in personal interviews (face-to-face). 
The Ukraine conflict and the VW scandal, the refugee crisis and terrorist attacks from Paris to Istanbul. All of this has also left its mark on the tourism industry. Many German citizens are increasingly unsettled and are questioning the most important prerequisite for a holiday: local safety. It is therefore not surprising that Germans are travelling less frequently for the first time since the financial crisis.
From an international perspective, however, 2015 was a successful year for the tourism industry. According to the World Tourism Organisation, 16% of the world's population travelled - more than ever before. Germany also enjoyed an increase in international visitors, which more than compensated for the decline in domestic travel intensity.
Nevertheless, the question remains as to what the future holds. Can Germany regain its title as world champion traveller? Will travel flows and holiday types change and shift? And will travelling remain indispensable for the majority of German citizens even in times of crisis? 

Travel balance 2015
Travel intensity falls for the first time since 2010 - uncertainty reaches tourism industry

  • Travel intensity falls by three percentage points to currently 54 per cent 
  • Strongest decline among the 55-plus generation (-6 percentage points)
  • Contrary to the trend, the intensity of travelling among the middle generation (35-54 years) rose by two percentage points 
This decline can be explained in particular by the population's growing uncertainty with regard to holidays. On the one hand, this is fuelled by the (perceived) growing number of terrorist attacks; on the other hand, numerous survey results from the BAT FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE QUESTIONS show a fundamental increase in fear of the future among the German population. For example, 55 per cent of Germans currently state that they are rather anxious about the future. Older Germans are particularly sceptical (around two thirds). Germans' assessment of economic development also gives cause for concern: four out of five expect a recession in Germany in 2016. They are therefore already showing a declining propensity to consume and even greater price sensitivity. Both of these factors are no longer exclusive to utility consumption, but are also having an increasing impact on leisure consumption, which includes holidays.

Domestic destinations 2015
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is the winner in a 10-year comparison

  • Germany remains by far the most popular holiday destination
  • Year-on-year, Germany is losing market share (2014: 37%, 2015: 32%)
  • Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is the winner in a 10-year comparison
There are many reasons for the decline in the proportion of the population who spent their main holiday in Germany. For some German citizens, the changeable weather in summer was reason enough to switch to sun-safe holiday destinations, others took advantage of the low petrol and paraffin costs to travel abroad and still others chose German destinations for second rather than main holidays.
The main reasons for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's increasing popularity are the newer infrastructure, the natural conditions, a good price-performance ratio and a high proportion of regular customers.

Destinations abroad 2015
Front runners extend gap

  • Spain was, is and remains the most popular holiday destination abroad
  • Italy and Turkey recorded growth in a 10-year comparison
  • In the past travel season, Turkish holiday destinations recorded a decline in visitor numbers for the first time in years
  • Austria and France are the losers in a 10-year comparison
Sun, beach and sea remain of central importance for holiday happiness. Crises - such as in Greece in the past or currently in Turkey - may lead to a short-term shift in the flow of travellers, but the fundamental popularity and attractiveness of a holiday destination remains the same. Holiday destinations from the Atlantic coast to the Bosporus and from the Mediterranean to the archipelago retain their popularity, especially in comparison to long-distance travel, as they score points for shorter journeys, many regular guests and a comparably high holiday quality.
The main reason for the decline in Austria is the popularity of Mediterranean holiday destinations and the competition in Bavaria. France „suffers“ from the still limited package deals, a comparatively high price level and fewer flights than in other tourist holiday regions.

Long-haul destinations 2015
Long-haul travel market stable for 10 years

  • The long-haul travel market remains stable at 11.3 per cent
  • The winners are Asia and the Caribbean
  • Almost a third fewer guests in North Africa
  • Around one in five childless couples chose a destination outside Europe, compared with only around one in 13 families
The North African countries of Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia continued to be popular holiday destinations in 2015, but remain dependent on the local political situation. Political unrest and an increase in terrorist attacks in this region explain the sharp decline in the number of holidaymakers in 2015. The actual or perceived uncertainty was more important when choosing a holiday destination than the guarantee of sunshine, hospitality or value for money.
While destinations in the Middle East also recorded losses, the number of Germans travelling to America, especially the USA and Canada, remained almost unchanged. Due to the financial means of the typical North American tourist - who is usually one of the higher earners - even a weaker exchange rate between the euro and the dollar had little impact on the popularity of destinations between Florida and California.
The winners in the long-haul travel market in 2015 were travel destinations in Asia (from 2.3 to 2.6 per cent within one year) and Central America and the Caribbean (from 1.6 to 2.0 per cent). Destinations in the Caribbean benefited in particular from the uncertainty in the otherwise very popular long-haul destinations in the southern Mediterranean.
Numerous Asian holiday destinations have impressed many German holidaymakers with their high standards - from hotels to food and transport. In addition, there is impressive nature in many places, numerous cultural sights and an overall attractive price-performance ratio. These are all factors that many Germans consider important when it comes to a successful holiday.

Trip duration 2015
The trough has bottomed out - journey duration increases for the first time

  • Trip duration increases for the first time in years
There are two main reasons for the increase in the length of trips in 2015: firstly, the above-average number of trips abroad, as the number of overnight stays abroad increased in line with the distance travelled. Secondly, many German citizens do not seem to want to shorten the best weeks of the year any further. They would rather save on travel or accommodation and limit their spending on holiday than have even less time on location.
The equation "the further away - the longer - but also the less often" continued to hold true in the past holiday season. Although most Germans spent their holidays in the holiday regions within Germany, they only spent 10.6 days there - although they stayed longer on the coasts than in the south of the country. Within Europe, a holiday lasted 12.7 days and here too the length of stay increased with distance (e.g. Austria 10.1 days, Turkey 13.7 days). Although long-distance holidays were the least frequent, they lasted by far the longest (17.3 days).

Travel expenses 2015
88 EUR per day and person

  • Last year, German citizens spent an average of EUR 1,109 on their main holiday 
  • Compared to 2014, total costs rose by EUR 38 per person, and by as much as EUR 165 in a 5-year comparison (2010: EUR 944) 
  • Daily costs averaged EUR 88 per person 
  • Higher daily costs in Germany than abroad in some cases
When analysing the daily costs (total costs of the holiday divided by the number of holiday days), it is noticeable that a holiday in Germany is often more expensive than a holiday abroad. For example, holidaymakers in Bavaria spend slightly more on average per day than holidaymakers in Turkey, a day at the North Sea was more expensive on average than in Croatia and people also paid more for a holiday in the Black Forest than in Greece. On the other hand, holidays were more expensive than in Germany in the most popular German destination abroad: Spain. This can be explained on the one hand by the high flight costs to the Canary Islands, for example, but on the other hand also shows the generally somewhat higher prices in Spanish destinations.
The total costs show a different picture to the daily costs, as the duration of the trip varies. At EUR 1,254, a trip abroad cost around EUR 450 more than a holiday in Germany (EUR 805) - but also lasted two days longer on average. Those who like to travel abroad even had to spend over EUR 2,000 in 2015, two and a half times as much as for a holiday in Germany - but then the holiday also lasted 17 days instead of 11.

Travel forecast 2016
Slight decrease in travel intensity

  • Increase in non-travellers by two percentage points
  • More than one in three is still unsure
The general increase in fear of the future may also lead to a slight decrease in the intensity of travelling among German citizens in 2016. However, interest in holidays and the fascination for travelling will remain high in the future. However, the humanitarian crisis, which is no longer taking place outside Europe's borders but is being experienced right on our own doorstep, terrorism targeting holiday destinations and innocent tourists, and unresolved economic issues are already causing more than one in five Germans not to plan a holiday for 2016.
However, there is also a large number of people who are still unsure whether they will be packing their suitcases this year. Although more than one in three would like to go on holiday in principle, they do not yet know exactly whether they will be able to fulfil this wish by the end of 2016. Past experience shows that around one in three undecided people will go on holiday during the course of the year. However, pessimism about the future this year could lead to slightly fewer people leaving their familiar surroundings for at least five days. In this respect, there are some indications that the intensity of travel in 2016 will not quite reach the level of the previous year.

Travel destinations 2016
Security determines travel flows

  • 71 per cent of travellers already know where they will be going 
  • Safety at holiday destinations determines travel flows in Europe
For the vast majority of Germans with firm travel plans, the detailed planning for the best weeks of the year is already beginning. This is a positive development, as there is less planning stress and decision-making pressure and, as we all know, anticipation is the greatest joy. As far as destinations are concerned, holiday regions within Germany can expect a constant number of guests. One in four German citizens is already certain to spend their holiday between Flensburg and Freiburg. Once again, it will be older guests and families in particular who will provide hotels and guesthouses with fully booked beds.
There will be slight changes within Europe. Spain and Italy remain popular and Greece can also expect to see growth. Bookings for Turkey are currently more restrained - the coming months will show whether lost confidence can be regained. However, if there are any negative reports, German citizens will switch to other Mediterranean destinations.
As long-haul trips are generally planned and booked for longer periods, the long-haul travel market can look forward to constant booking figures. Once again, around one in ten trips will be to a destination outside Europe. America, Asia and the beaches of the Caribbean remain popular destinations. North African destinations, on the other hand, can hardly expect any growth, as it will probably take some time to regain the lost confidence of holidaymakers.
However, there is also hope for all those undecided German citizens who do not yet know where they want to go on holiday this year. For them, the weather, the holiday budget, local safety and the right all-round offer are decisive factors in the final choice.

Technical data of the 32nd German Tourism Analysis 2016

Number and representation of respondents: 4,000 people aged 14 and over in Germany
Survey period: January 2016
Survey institute: GfK Marktforschung/Nuremberg

You can find the evaluation of the 32nd German Tourism Analysis 2016 at www.tourismusanalyse.de on the Internet. A free PDF download of the complete study is also available there.
The comprehensive analysis of German travel behaviour contains data on destinations, travel duration, travel costs and trends for 2015 as well as forecasts for 2016.

Former „Forschung aktuell“ on the topic of „Tourism analysis“

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