This is how German citizens view 2026
- Only about one in five (22%) expect greater social cohesion in 2026. Ten years ago, twice as many citizens were optimistic (2015: 44%).
- Three out of five German citizens (60%) are anxiously looking ahead to the year 2026. Compared to 10 years ago, this fear has increased significantly (2015: 45%).
- Four out of five (80%) expect an increase in economic problems in Germany. The figure was almost identical in 2015 (79%).
- Nearly nine out of ten expect a further loss of trust in politicians. However, distrust has only increased slightly compared to 10 years ago (2015: 87%).
The fear of societal division has risen significantly, but the objective problems have remained the same. This is the conclusion of the latest study by the non-profit Foundation for Future Issues, for which 2,000 German citizens aged 18 and over were surveyed in a representative sample. While economic pessimism and the loss of trust in politicians have hardly changed, the hope for social cohesion has halved. Consequently, anxiety about the future has also increased considerably.
Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, scientific director of the BAT Foundation: „"Division doesn't arise solely from crises. It also arises from narratives about what is possible – and what isn't. We are therefore currently experiencing not only a crisis of facts, but also a crisis of our shared understanding of what we as a society can achieve. This is a crucial difference: Citizens can cope with difficult circumstances as long as they believe in a better future. If this confidence is lost, fear and selfishness grow."“
Economic pessimism
Around 80 percent of the population expects an economic downturn in 2026. This figure has remained virtually unchanged for over a decade (2015: 79 percent) and points less to short-term economic fluctuations than to a entrenched economic uncertainty, which many now perceive as a structural condition. At the same time, the roughly 20 percent who expect an improvement represent a stable segment – and by no means a naive one. Rather, they represent those citizens who, under the same conditions, also recognize opportunities: in innovations, new business models, and strategic change. Historically, economic change does not arise from pessimistic majorities, but from proactive minorities.
Politics is perceived as powerless.
89 percent of the population expects a further loss of trust in politics. It's not so much the numbers themselves that have changed, but rather the reasons behind this. While in 2015 the prevailing impression was often that the wrong people had been elected, today a feeling of resignation dominates: politicians are unable to deliver what is needed – regardless of who is in office. This form of alienation runs deeper than the evaluation of individual governments.
Fear as a sign of an existential crisis
Sixty percent of Germans view the year 2026 with anxiety – compared to 45 percent in 2015. This shift of 15 percentage points reflects not only growing challenges but also an increasing, yet somewhat intangible, fear of losing control. Many feel that the future is slipping away from them because key sources of guidance, such as politics, business, the church, and the media, are no longer perceived as reliable. The 40 percent who nevertheless look to the future with confidence do so not out of naivety, but because, despite the same problems, they continue to believe in the capacity for collective action.
Professor Reinhardt: „"The central divide in Germany is not between those who see problems and those who ignore them. It is between those who still believe they can change something and those who have lost that belief.".
His conclusion: „The most important thing for 2026 is this: We must distinguish between real problems and a feeling of hopelessness. The problems are real. But the belief that they are unsolvable is not real – it is constructed. This presents an opportunity: If we break through this narrative barrier, if we talk again about shared solutions – not naively, but realistically – perceptions could change. After all, the hope for shared solutions is itself part of the solution and no less important than any political or economic measure.”
