British-American Tobacco publishes new future study from the Leisure Research Institute

On the road to the third millennium, Germany, a country of prosperity and welfare, faces unprecedented challenges. The balance between economic performance and social benefits is becoming increasingly precarious. The end of the work-based society is looming, a model in which only a quarter (24%) of the German population still believes. Similarly, only one in three Germans (34%) is convinced of the "industrial society" model. For the majority of Germans, however, only two terms accurately describe the current social reality: Germany is and will remain both a meritocracy (60%) and a consumer society (56%). These findings come from recent representative surveys conducted by the Leisure Research Institute of British-American Tobacco, which were recently presented in a comprehensive report entitled "Germany 2010" in Hamburg.
In their subjective assessment of accelerated social change, the population places more value on reality than wishful thinking. Declining real incomes have shaken the belief in further increases in prosperity: only 31 percent of the population still believe that we live in an affluent society. And only one in seven Germans (15%) is convinced of the reality of a new information society.
„The future in Germany has a new name: meritocracy,“ says Prof. Dr. Horst W. Opaschowski, author of the BAT Future Study. „The population apparently has a sense of what counts in professional life just as much as in private life: those who achieve something in life deserve recognition.“ The only remaining question is: achievement – for what? In work, in sports, or as social engagement? Opaschowski continues: „The traditional opposing worlds of work and leisure are increasingly being replaced by the tension between achievement and enjoyment of life. The meaning of life must be redefined in the future. Humans cannot endure work without enjoyment or leisure without achievement in the long run.“
The younger generation, in particular, is on the path to a new work-life balance: for them, achievement and enjoyment of life are no longer opposites. A comparison of the years 1986, 1992, and 1996 shows that 18- to 29-year-olds increasingly value achievement and enjoyment of life as equally important. Both areas have lost their alternative or even confrontational character. The feared reluctance to perform is not occurring.

Working world 2010: Change in career awareness

Quantity, or working hours, is no longer the central focus of people's lives. The call for shorter working hours is becoming less and less audible. Job satisfaction has now become the most important motivating factor; that is, work "must" offer variety, challenges, and a sense of accomplishment. People always desire what they don't yet have or subjectively perceive as a deficiency. The fact that employees are currently calling so loudly for work that is enjoyable and meaningful indicates a qualitative shift in the workforce's expectations. Companies and entrepreneurs need to rethink their approach. Enjoyable work is more important (1996: 70%) than a higher income (45%) or additional performance bonuses (34%). And meaningful work content (51%) is more important than status and career advancement (34%).
At the same time, career consciousness is changing. Young careerists are discovering the joy of life in general. They no longer live solely for their jobs and careers. For two-thirds of the younger generation, a professional career primarily means "having a job that is fun" (67%). In contrast, leadership positions are only of secondary interest (20%). Most young people who want to pursue a career ask how they can "realize their own professional aspirations" (59%). They ask about opportunities for personal development in their work, for more freedom to shape their own lives, and for what their work personally brings them.
However, the commodification of work is looming. By 2010, weekend work, annual working time models, and flexible working hours will increase. A clear trend is emerging: future employees will increasingly become temporary workers who can no longer develop a sense of belonging. Underemployed individuals will suffer noticeably in the future under the societal norm and public ideal of full employment if it is not possible to redefine "work," "activity," and "employment" by then. Otherwise, those affected will have to live with the perception of being underpaid, underqualified, or even inferior, which harbors considerable potential for social conflict.
Despite shorter working lives (and simultaneously higher life expectancy), the public believes that a meritocracy should be maintained under all circumstances. A life without challenges is simply unsustainable for humans in the long run. Politics and society must consider new forms of employment that are meaningful and fulfilling, and they must also demand more of and support individual citizens, meaning they must be given more social responsibility and their contributions to society must be appropriately recognized.

Consumer world 2010: From supply-oriented to experiential consumption

In 2010, German citizens will have an average of more than 1,000 marks available for leisure activities. Monthly leisure expenditures between West and East Germans are becoming increasingly similar, although equality in living standards between East (950 DM) and West (1,150 DM) is still a long way off.
The prosperity and changing values of the 1970s to 1990s led to a shift in Germans' consumption priorities: consumer experiences became more important than consumer goods. Consumers increasingly bought experiences and feelings, not just products or merchandise. The experience triumphed over fulfilling needs. Going out became as important as housing, and vacations as essential as clothing.
Many markets will reach their saturation point in 2010. Advertising is increasingly relying on experiential strategies to further stimulate consumers' desire to buy. As a result, there will be more experience-driven consumers than purely consumer-driven consumers. Then it will be time to say goodbye to the post-war generation. Earning and spending money will be focused on only one goal: wanting to live a good life.
The experience consumer becomes a split personality, equally adept at saving and wasting. Subjectively speaking, experience consumption knows no recession. Even in economically challenging times, the affluent generation refuses to forgo experiences.

Media landscape 2010: Doing more in the same amount of time

The information society is still a long way off: In 2000, one in five Germans will use a PC after work, and a decade later, this figure will be at most 40 percent. Most Germans (601,000,000) will therefore not use a PC in their private lives even in 2010. As employees, they "have to" use a PC, but as consumers, they find TV and video, radio and CDs, newspapers and telephones more appealing. When new media emerge, old media are not abandoned. Quite the contrary: Compared to 1996 (341,000,000), at least as many books will be read in 2010 (approximately 381,000,000).
But the day will still only have 24 hours. In that same amount of time, more needs to be "done"—more reading, more radio listening, and more television watching. The result: less and less time remains for "one" thing. The harried consumer increasingly lives by the motto "Do more in the same amount of time." The old rule of thumb "One thing at a time" will be forgotten by the year 2010, just as looking out the window has become a relic of the past.

Sports world 2010: The experience becomes more important than the result

The future looks bright: active athletes will become a minority. Back in 1987, 21 percent of the West German population described themselves as active athletes, exercising regularly at least once a week. By 2000, this figure was projected to be 17 percent, and by 2010 it was expected to drop to nine percent. Germans will continue to exercise in the future – but moderately and no longer regularly.
The number of members in West German sports clubs is steadily declining. In 1990, 29 percent of the population identified as sports club members, and in 1996, this figure dropped to 25 percent. If this trend continues, only 20 percent of West Germans will be members of a sports club by 2010. Young people, in particular, are dropping out. This development could be dramatic: the proportion of young sports club members could fall from 52 percent in 1990 to 25 percent in 2010. This would amount to a halving of youth membership within 20 years.
For sports enthusiasts, it's becoming increasingly difficult to stick with one activity. The range of attractive leisure activities is exploding: in the 1960s there were around 30 sports; today there are over 240. These new recreational sports are hardly suitable as an incentive for competitive and high-performance sports in clubs. Professor Opaschowski: "Tomorrow's athlete is sometimes a fan, sometimes a fanatic, sometimes an all-rounder or outdoor enthusiast, very trend- and fashion-conscious, and always with the right feeling for fun and adventure, excitement and thrills."„

Cultural World 2010: Between Boom and Business

The cultural sector is facing an expansive future. Never before has there been a generation that has grown up with so much free time and access to education. The number of people interested in culture could almost double by 2010. Looking ahead, a shift in interest from sports to culture is becoming increasingly apparent. Interest in watching sporting events is stagnating (1986: 91,300 – 1996: 81,300), while attending cultural events is becoming ever more attractive. The percentage of West Germans who regularly (at least once a week) attend operas, concerts, theater performances, museums, or art exhibitions more than doubled between 1986 and 1996 (1986: 51,300 – 1996: 121,300). This trend is further amplified by cultural events such as theater festivals, open-air concerts, and cultural and city trips.

Social world 2010: More love of freedom than sense of duty

In the future, individualization will be more important than organization. The exodus from institutions seems unstoppable. Between 1990 and 1996 alone, the percentage of West Germans who were no longer members of a club or organization rose from 38 to 45 percent. By 2010, the majority of Germans will "voluntarily" no longer form any organizational affiliations.
What began as a trend in the mid-1980s is increasingly becoming reality. More and more young people aged 14 to 34 find their personal leisure interests in sports, hobbies, and vacations "more important than marriage and starting a family" (1985: 39% – 1988: 43% – 1994: 46%). By 2010, most young Germans (around 58%) will hold the view that one can live happily without children and family. A prediction by the B·A·T Institute from 1981 is becoming increasingly likely: "The danger of a leisure culture that tends to be childless is emerging for the future."„
Starting a family and the desire for children are increasingly competing with consumption and leisure time. "Leisure interests now have a greater influence on the declining attractiveness of marriage and family than professional interests," says Professor Opaschowski in the B·A·T Future Report. "The fear of a 'career setback' is often just an excuse." The main reason given by those surveyed for not wanting to marry and start a family is: "They want to enjoy their free time and not give up anything.".

Outlook: Finding meaning in life beyond work

Social justice must be defined in two ways in the future. Younger generations are more concerned with maintaining their standard of living, while older generations are more focused on securing their pensions. Both want to share in prosperity and not be excluded. Being excluded from the affluent majority is subjectively perceived as poverty. No generation wants to be among those on the decline of social welfare. Consequently, by 2010, three-quarters of the German population will be worried about maintaining their standard of living. And for approximately 90 percent of the population, pension security will be "the" issue.
In the future, a widening wealth gap with potentially explosive social consequences could emerge. An increasing number of young people, as well as single parents and single individuals without family ties, are falling below the poverty line. The causes of this growing impoverishment include not only unemployment, separation, and divorce, but also private debt incurred for consumption. Private debt has already nearly doubled in the past ten years.
In 2010, work—partly due to increasing life expectancy—no longer represents even half of life. The post-retirement phase of life could become the "New Social Question" of the 21st century. How the shortening working life affects meaning and purpose in life will become a central socio-political problem and question for the future. Meaning in life can and should no longer be found solely in paid work, but must also be possible through unpaid activity that serves the individual and the community: from raising children within the family to voluntary social work in the neighborhood or a club.
The population hopes that in 2010 – even beyond paid employment – meaning in life is possible: through social contacts and social engagement. Family (45%), friends (39%), volunteering (11%), and social engagement (12%) are mentioned alongside sports, hobbies, and travel as future priorities in life. This is linked to the desire to find more time for oneself and more time with and for others.
In politics and society, the prevailing view has been that paid work, as the center of life, cannot be replaced by anything of equal value. However, the study "Germany 2010" demonstrates that the population can indeed imagine finding fulfillment in life outside of work: A re-evaluation of the meaning of life is emerging for the future. Meaning in life beyond work can also mean seeking in extracurricular activities what many people can no longer find in paid employment: a sense of purpose, self-expression, and a sense of accomplishment.

Germany 2010:
The book about the future of our society

„"Germany 2010" is a scientific report that points the way to the future – not a trend report on fleeting or fashionable trends. The transition into the third millennium brings profound changes and uncertainties. Decision-makers in politics, business, and society are called upon to ensure the preservation and safeguarding of our quality of life.
For a quarter of a century, the author, Prof. Dr. Horst W. Opaschowski, has observed and studied the lifestyles of Germans. His current analyses have since attracted considerable interest in academic and media circles. Together with the B·A·T Leisure Research Institute, he ventured into new territory a decade ago with the publications "How Will We Live After the Year 2000?" (1987) and "How Will We Work After the Year 2000?" (1989): situational analyses were expanded to include future perspectives. Not speculative, but realistic. Based on empirical surveys.
Now he approaches 2010. Engaged and incisive. Again based on sound empirical data. Without fantasy, but with enough social imagination to responsibly consider the future of our society.

As part of its socio-political commitment, British-American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH supports the publication of this futures study, which provides answers to the question: How will we – indeed, how do we want to – live in the future? The futures study by Prof. Dr. Horst W. Opaschowski: „Germany 2010. How We Will Live Tomorrow – Scientific Predictions on the Future of Our Society“ is now available in bookstores (price: DM 49.80; ISBN 3-616-06870-3).