British American Tobacco presents the 10th all-German tourism analysis by the Leisure Research Institute.

Travel summary for 1999: Fewer, shorter, and more modest. The world travel champions bid farewell to the "ever more" mentality."

Triple savings are the order of the day for vacationers: traveling less, shortening trips, and living more modestly on vacation. Compared to the previous year, the travel intensity of Germans fell from 54 percent (1998) to 52 percent (1999). At the same time, the trend toward shorter average trip duration intensified (1980: 18.2 days – 1990: 16.3 days – 1999: 14.8 days). Domestic holiday destinations, in particular, are finding it very difficult to attract even two-week vacationers. This is according to the 10th German Tourism Analysis by the Leisure Research Institute of British American Tobacco, in which 5,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were surveyed about their vacation behavior in 1999 and their travel plans for 2000.
""Shorter trips are increasingly becoming the norm," says institute director Prof. Dr. Horst W. Opaschowski. "Annual vacation is turning into a short break." Only a third of the population (34%) still adheres to the principle of longer vacations. Everyone else is shortening their vacation duration. Domestic holiday destinations are most affected. Vacationers now stay on the North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts for just under two weeks (13.1 and 13.4 days, respectively). In the Black Forest, the average trip duration is only 11.7 days, and in Bavaria, it's a mere 10.0 days. Germany is in danger of becoming a short-break nation.
A travel industry accustomed to success is caught in the grip of time and money. The traditionally ironclad rule of "vacation is the last thing to be cut" is beginning to crumble. Even vacations have their everyday realities, and the tourism industry has its new normal. This means stagnation at a high level – but simultaneously, growth in Mediterranean sun destinations and a continuous decline in domestic travel. Even a record-breaking summer like last year's cannot stem the exodus of German vacationers abroad. The appeal of domestic holidays is steadily declining (1996: 411,300 – 1997: 391,300 – 1998: 381,300 – 1999: 351,300).

Domestic travel destinations: Intensified competition "coast versus mountains""

Because domestic holiday regions are losing more and more market share in the travel market, competition is also intensifying. For years, this intensified competition has been evident: coast versus mountains. Waves, wind, sand, and beach chairs have become increasingly popular with domestic holidaymakers in recent years. Despite strong domestic and international competition, the holiday regions on the North and Baltic Seas have been able to maintain their position (Baltic Sea 1991: 6% – 1999: 8% – North Sea 1991: 7% – 1999: 6%).
Almost all Alpine countries suffered near-catastrophic losses from the early 1990s onward, including the Bavarian holiday regions, as well as Austria and Switzerland. There was talk of a general "Alpine fatigue." The proportion of German tourists in Bavaria, for example, fell noticeably from 12 percent in 1991 to 7 percent in 1998. Just in time for the turn of the millennium, the downward trend seems to have slowed. For the first time since 1991, the proportion of tourists visiting the Alps rose slightly again to 8 percent in the last travel season. Is a renaissance of Alpine tourism imminent? Opaschowski: "The Alps have more to offer today than just high mountains. Many mountain villages have now developed into wellness oases, sports areas, and entertainment centers." The competition between "coast versus mountains" in Germany is more open than ever.

Foreign travel destinations: Spain breaks all records

More and more German holidaymakers are feeling the urge to visit the Mediterranean islands. The Balearic and Canary Islands, as well as mainland Spain, were the undisputed leaders in the last travel season. The holiday destination boasts an unparalleled track record (1991: 111,300 visitors – 1999: 171,300 visitors). One in six German holidaymakers vacations in Spain at least once a year – more than in the sunny destinations of Italy (71,300 visitors), Greece (41,300 visitors), Portugal (21,300 visitors), and Turkey (31,300 visitors) combined.
Tourism in Spain is largely comprised of both air travel and package holidays, which explains the relatively long average trip duration of 16.4 days (in contrast to Austria: 12.8 days). A two-week holiday on-site is practically standard.
The growing and almost overwhelming appeal of Spanish travel destinations is increasingly posing a challenge to other European travel destinations. Italy can, at best, hope for stagnation; the figures for recent years are certainly not encouraging (1991: 101,300 visitors – 1999: 71,300 visitors). Austria, too, has seen its share of German tourists halve over the course of a decade (1991: 91,300 visitors – 1999: 51,300 visitors). The growth market of Spain, from which tour operators in particular are profiting, is causing all other travel markets to stagnate. Turkey remains at the same level as it was at the beginning of the 1990s (1991: 21,300 visitors – 1999: 31,300 visitors). The same applies to Greece (1991: 41,300 visitors – 1999: 41,300 visitors). Even possible serious alternatives to the southern sun destinations, such as Scandinavia (1991: 2% – 1999: 3%), cannot counter the pull towards Spain.
And the long-haul travel market, for financial reasons alone, can only be an attractive complement (and not an alternative) to tourism in Spain. Thus, the Caribbean, especially Cuba and the Dominican Republic (1992: 11,030 – 1999: 21,030), as well as North America (1991: 21,030 – 1999: 21,030), failed to achieve a real breakthrough. Long-haul destinations remain a stable market segment in the tourism industry. However, they will not be able to exceed the 5 percent mark in the foreseeable future.

Travel plans for 2000: A lack of funds for travel? Not even half of all Germans have firm travel plans.

A representative survey on travel intentions conducted by the Leisure Research Institute of British American Tobacco in 2000 reveals that many suitcases will remain unused this year. Not even half of all Germans plan to travel (47%). The proportion of Germans eager to travel is the lowest it has been in many years. In the mid-1990s, the figure was around 53 percent, but it has been declining steadily ever since. There is little room for euphoria or cautious optimism at present. Consumers are more inclined towards caution, restraint, and a wait-and-see approach.
Given the current climate of eco-taxes and rising social welfare costs, it's not surprising that 29 percent of the population is still unsure whether to pack their bags for vacation this year or forgo travel altogether. Many households are finding it increasingly difficult to save up for a holiday. And Germans aren't particularly fond of the "travel now – pay later" approach to vacations anyway.
Thus, all the travel industry's hopes rest on the 47 percent of the population who have firm travel plans and are practically sitting on packed suitcases. Once again, the consumer pioneers are overrepresented: the young, the urbanites, and the higher earners – that is, 14- to 24-year-olds (511,000), city dwellers (551,000), and those with a net household income of over DM 5,000 (631,000). The less others can travel, the more money they apparently want to spend on vacations.

Travel destinations 2000: Boom in Mediterranean beach destinations

And where will travelers go at the turn of the millennium? Distant destinations, warmth, and wide open spaces continue to dominate travel trends for the coming season. Only about one in five Germans with firm travel plans (221) intends to stay in Germany – as was the case last year – while the rest are drawn abroad. One in six respondents (161 – compared to 131 last year) plans to visit Spain. Other sunny destinations such as Italy (81), Greece (61), Turkey (41), and France (41) follow at a considerable distance. The boom in popularity of Mediterranean beach destinations among German vacationers continues, and Spain remains the undisputed leader.
Only two foreign travel destinations can somewhat compete: Austria (61,000, 330,000) and Scandinavia (41,000, 330,000). The USA (31,000, 330,000) and the Caribbean (21,000, 330,000) also remain dream destinations for Germans. However, tight holiday budgets will ensure that the gap between desire and reality in long-distance travel remains significant.

Quality in tourism: Beautiful scenery, healthy climate, good food: Holiday regions as judged by tourists.

The dominant theme in the coming years will be quality in tourism. The quality of what's on offer will determine where travel flows will go in the future. For the first time, the Leisure Research Institute of British American Tobacco commissioned a product-related quality analysis of domestic and international holiday destinations, conducted by the tourists themselves. The study examined the holiday regions chosen by German tourists as destinations during the 1999 travel season.
According to the results of the representative survey, the ten most important quality features from the public's perspective are: Beautiful scenery (71%), Healthy climate (61%), Good food (61%), Cleanliness (58%), Cozy atmosphere (57%), Good value for money (57%), Swimming opportunities in the sea/lake (56%), Hospitality/Friendliness (52%), Affordable accommodation (52%), and Low traffic (49%). These ten quality features are of greatest personal importance for the holiday experience. Environmental protection aspects, such as "Environmentally friendly holiday destination," are – once again – not favored by holidaymakers and have the same marginal importance as, for example, "Well-maintained public sanitary facilities" (both 36%).
For German citizens, atmospheric factors such as cleanliness (58%), coziness (57%), and friendliness (52%) rank significantly higher than material offerings that can be bought and consumed. Good shopping opportunities (29%), sports facilities (27%), or varied entertainment (28%) are only of secondary importance. "A good vacation" has more to do with feeling good than with wealth.
Two survey waves were conducted to determine representative data:
The ideal value, i.e., how holidaymakers ideally imagine the quality of a holiday destination, and the real value, what holidaymakers actually find on site.
A comparison of vacation quality between desired (ideal) and actual (real) values reveals remarkable results. The ideal value is not always higher than the real value. In some cases, reality even exceeds vacationers' expectations.
71 percent of the population desires beautiful scenery on vacation; 81 percent actually found it. Clearly, the language of tourist advertising strikes a chord: "Dream vacation," "Holiday paradise," "Fairytale-like." The beautiful landscape of a vacation region can be even more impressive than the expressive language of advertising. Vacation impressions linger, remaining in the imagination, even though they are essentially ineffable. For some vacationers, the sight of natural landscapes (e.g., glaciers, the Grand Canyon) literally leaves them speechless.
On the other hand, holidaymakers also have the opposite experience. Most holidaymakers arrive by car or plane and then feel bothered by the traffic noise they actually want to escape. Every second German citizen (49%) wants "plenty of peace and quiet and little traffic" on holiday, but only just under half of them (24%) actually find the peace and quiet they crave.
""Bathing in well-being": Coziness at home – hospitality abroad
Of all domestic travelers, those who vacation in the Black Forest return home the most satisfied. In terms of hospitality, a cozy atmosphere, comfortable accommodations, and good cuisine, the Black Forest seems to be unrivaled in Germany – at least according to the subjective view of vacationers. In a quality comparison, the North Sea regions are praised for having the healthiest climate, the best medical care, the cleanest beaches, and an excellent restaurant, café, and pub scene. Vacationers cite the Mecklenburg-Western Pomeranian Baltic coast as the best place for swimming. And, according to them, the most beautiful landscapes are found in Bavaria and the Black Forest.
What at first glance appears entirely positive also has its downsides. In a quality comparison of domestic holiday regions, the North Sea region scores worst in terms of value for money (42% satisfaction – other regions: 52%). And however beautiful the Black Forest, Baltic Sea, and North Sea may be, few holidaymakers are satisfied with the traffic calming measures in the resorts (Black Forest: 20% – Baltic Sea: 25% – North Sea: 29%).
Even among the most popular holiday destinations abroad, there are remarkable differences in holidaymakers' opinions. Italy is considered by holidaymakers to be the noisiest holiday destination. Only one in ten (101) is satisfied with the peace and quiet there. Scandinavia is significantly quieter, but few holidaymakers are satisfied with the value for money (351 – other holiday destinations: 521). According to German holidaymakers, Austria has the most beautiful scenery compared to all other holiday destinations (931 – other countries: 811).
And another interesting point: German citizens who come from Germany, often perceived as a "service desert," and vacation abroad are most surprised by the friendliness of their host countries. Only about half (52%) expect hospitality in their holiday destination. In reality, these expectations are far exceeded: Greece (77%), Turkey (71%), Tunisia/Morocco (71%), and Austria (71%) are the top-ranked countries for hospitality.

The new generation of holidaymakers: Between "Lifeseeing" and "Luxese""

A generation of seasoned travelers is getting older. The unexplored areas on the tourist map are shrinking, expectations for the experience of new destinations are rising, but vacation budgets are shrinking. "Everything, immediately – and as cheaply as possible": This attitude is reaching the limits of what is feasible.
A new attitude towards travel is emerging in the post-millennium era: sometimes saving, sometimes splurging; sometimes luxury, sometimes austerity. The new trend in tourism is called Luxese. What the divided consumer has been practicing in everyday life for years is now also being implemented on vacation: foregoing mediocrity, but not foregoing the luxury of a holiday. However, this also means embracing budget-friendly options. Opaschowski: "The 'New German Modesty' has now arrived in tourism as well. Modesty, yes – deprivation, no." Three pragmatic attitudes are characteristic of the Luxese approach to travel after the turn of the millennium:
First: "Better shorter trips, but more frequent throughout the year." One in five Germans (21%) lives by this motto and has become a short-trip traveler by principle. The tourism industry has long been feeling the effects of this shift in attitude. Vacation trips are getting shorter and shorter. In this way, travelers are resolving the dilemma between time and money in their own way.
Secondly: "Sometimes a holiday trip, sometimes a staycation" is the second pragmatic shift in attitude among today's generation of vacationers. The dream of the perfect holiday remains, but the rhythm of vacations is changing. Approximately one in six Germans (16%) now only takes holidays in intervals: sometimes a staycation on their balcony, and then a year later, another big trip.
Thirdly: "Better a budget trip than foregoing a vacation." In times of increasingly tight vacation budgets, seven percent of the population reveal themselves as purely budget-conscious tourists who only look at the price because they have to manage their finances and have to calculate their expenses on vacation just like at home. "The main thing is to travel" is their motto. They aren't bothered by the cheap image.
Young people are also transforming event tourism into a unique form of experiential travel. Almost one in five young people aged 14 to 24 (181,000 – total population: 71,000) now want to be nothing more than an event tourist, sacrificing their annual leave or traditional vacation to experience the year's highlights in sports, culture, and entertainment. Lifeseeing, not sightseeing, is the motto. The stories and anecdotes "afterwards" are becoming the new status symbol for youth since the turn of the millennium.

Technical data of the survey
10. Nationwide German Tourism Analysis

Number and representativeness of respondents: Germany, 5,000 people aged 14 and over (3,980 West – 1,020 East)
Survey period: January 8 to 24, 2000
Survey institute: INRA Deutschland Gesellschaft für Markt- und Sozialforschung mbH, Mölln
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