Current research, 208
26 August 2008
BAT Foundation for Future Issues presents book publication „Germany 2030. How we will live in the future“.
Planning for Germany's future: "Let's get to work!" This is how we want to live in 2030 – this is how we will live in 2030.
Current situation:
Between fear of the future and optimism about life
Germany in 2008: Expensive oil and a strong euro, rising living costs and declining consumer demand, Europe in crisis and bank failures in the USA. Such dire news is reflected in stock prices as economic anxieties and raises fears of an end to the economic upswing and general prosperity. Despite the spreading economic pessimism in business and society, the population's personal optimism about life remains unbroken. The almost oppressive fear of the future of recent years ("The German angst") is giving way to a new hope for the future. Germans are looking to their own future with more hope (39%) than worry (33%).
The world may be changing. But on a personal level, Germans are preparing for a positive future. Young people are proving to be a great source of hope. Two-thirds of 14- to 17-year-olds (64%) are convinced they can easily manage their future. They have little regard for the threat of poverty (21%).
„Courage for the Future“ is the population’s concrete answer to the question of how we will live in twenty or thirty years. Instead of passively or depressively facing the future, people across all generations want to actively fight for a future worth living: Young people are doubling their efforts. Women are entering the workforce; the world of work is becoming more female. „Re-start at 50“ is the motto for older employees. And three-quarters of the population want to voluntarily work beyond the age of 65 and supplement their pensions, instead of complaining about poverty in old age. This is the conclusion of a comprehensive representative study by the Foundation for Future Issues, an initiative of British American Tobacco, which Professor Dr. Horst W. Opaschowski, the author and scientific director of the foundation, presented today in Hamburg.
The future report, also published as a book entitled "Germany 2030: How We Will Live in the Future," predicts a shift in values with a positive overall trend: These include helpfulness (64%), friendship (66%), and social justice (74%). And for every second German citizen (49%), a sense of security will once again be just as important as freedom (49%). These are the population's answers to the question of what will be important and valuable in the future. Professor Dr. Horst W. Opaschowski: "Citizens want an end to the looming threat of social erosion and are quite willing to actively contribute. This is an extremely positive vision of the future, which suggests serious social deficits in recent years. The outlines of a dual meritocracy are emerging: on the one hand, a service-oriented society that costs money, and on the other hand, a social-service-oriented society that helps save money and will soon make us forget the age of self-centeredness."„
Performance explosion.
Youth redoubles their efforts
Four out of ten German citizens (43%) believe that the meritocracy best describes the reality of life in Germany. The meritocracy is alive and well. It is the very foundation for a future worth living. The focus on achievement is increasing almost explosively among young people (1992: 32% – 2000: 41% – 2007: 56%). For the younger generation, achievement and enjoyment of life have lost their alternative or even confrontational character. The proportion of hedonists who "only" want to enjoy life has declined almost dramatically: from 33 percent in 1992 to 27 percent in 2000, and then to 10 percent in 2007. Pleasure without achievement is finding fewer and fewer adherents.
By 2030, the performance explosion of the younger generation could reach its peak. Over two-thirds (68%) will then seek their purpose in life through work – twice as many as in 1986. Achievement is once again enjoyable and creates meaning at the same time. Opaschowski: „Politics and business should prepare in good time for the emerging shift in values towards a new ethic of balance and create more fluid transitions between professional and private life. The younger generation wants to achieve something in life and enjoy life at the same time. A drive for achievement is the life concept of the young generation in the 21st century, who want to be neither overwhelmed nor underwhelmed in their lives.“
The women are coming.
The working world is becoming more female.
As recently as 1970, women comprised just over a third (371,000) of the workforce in Germany. By 2010, this figure will have risen to approximately 47 percent. And by 2030, men could become a minority in the workforce for the first time (men: 481,000 – women: 521,000) if women's increased qualification efforts continue. The transition from qualifications changes in the education system to employment patterns in the workplace is a short one: Today, over fifty percent of high school and university graduates are female. Yet, even with equal qualifications, men still dominate top management positions. In twenty years, thanks to their higher qualifications, women will be just as successful and respected in leadership roles.
„Because more and more highly qualified women aspire to higher positions and will reach them by 2030, the air will become thinner for male careers. This will not be entirely without conflict,“ says Professor Opaschowski. „Both genders are confronted with a double work-life balance crisis: The question of reconciling career and family is compounded by the question of reconciling women’s and men’s roles. Role reversals are on the agenda: Who will play the main role of provider in the future, and who the supporting role of supplementary earner? Status battles, both upward and downward, will become part of everyday life in partnerships.‚ By 2030, emancipation will also arrive in the world of work.
Re-start at 50.
The economy needs older workers
With the aging of society, the public's attitude towards "midlife" and "old age" has fundamentally changed in recent years. The official retirement age of 65 exists only on paper: according to the population, one is not considered "old" until 72. And the new ideal of life for Germans is no longer youth, but midlife around 40. An end to the obsession with youth is also becoming apparent in the workplace. Older workers are becoming more important again. Since 2000, the employment rate among those aged 50 to under 65 has risen from 54 to 66 percent. According to the Federal Employment Agency, the number of employees over 50 subject to social security contributions even reached a new high of 6.3 million in 2007. And the trend is continuing to rise. This puts Germany significantly above the EU average. Only Sweden and Great Britain have more older people working.
Demographic change in society will lead to a fundamental shift in employment over the next twenty years. The saying will no longer be, "Over the hill at 50," but rather, "Restart at 50!" The economy will once again need older workers. Four out of ten people in the workforce will be over 50 by 2030. "The 50-plus generation is getting a second chance. These 'best agers' are being rediscovered as indispensable employees and are no longer just seen as customers and consumers ('master consumers')," says the scientific director of the BAT Foundation.
The business world and the world of work can benefit from the dual experience – life experience and professional experience – of older generations. Calmness and consistency are once again finding their way into working life. These are time-tested principles such as persistently pursuing goals, putting pace and hectic activity into perspective, combining personal and professional life, and recognizing the causes of mistakes and learning from them. Younger people are increasingly learning from the example set by older generations, which encourages them to follow, emulate, and learn from their experiences. Of course, younger people will continue to want to gain their own experiences and not simply learn from the mistakes of others. But in professional life, the motto is increasingly: Learn from older generations. And also: Learn with older generations.
Voluntarily working beyond the age of 65.
Instead of combating poverty in old age, increase pensions.
Attitudes towards pensions and retirement ages are undergoing fundamental changes. Foundation director Opaschowski explains: „The statutory retirement age of 65 is increasingly perceived by many as a forced retirement with the feel of a guillotine. Germans therefore want to determine their own retirement age in the future and make the transition to retirement more flexible.“ Almost three-quarters (73%) of all employed people in Germany are already willing to work voluntarily beyond the age of 65 if it allows them to supplement their pension. This desire for a pension increase and additional income is expressed by all occupational groups – slightly more so by manual laborers (78%) than by salaried employees and civil servants (70%) or the self-employed (71%). Employees want more money to live on, but also to continue being needed in old age. They are demanding more options for individually shaping their working lives and less mandatory statutory retirement.
Employees have very clear ideas about how employment and supplementary income opportunities should be regulated in the future. One in five employees (22%) is interested in continuing full-time employment beyond the age of 65 – with full pay and a simultaneous increase in their pension upon later retirement. And half of all employed people (51%) would like to remain part-time employed even in old age: provided, however, that they can earn unlimited additional income – without any deductions from their full pension.
The statutory pension will no longer be sufficient to prevent poverty in old age. The political consequence is clear: the best way to combat poverty in old age is to maintain full employment for as long as possible, because the statutory pension alone will no longer be enough to sustain one's accustomed standard of living. With pension levels declining in the coming years, a growing number of older people will have to and want to continue working. Only a minority (11%) rejects any further employment beyond the statutory retirement age, citing having "made adequate provisions" and not suffering "hardship." However, one thing is common to all working people: they want to be needed and employed – with or without pay – well into old age, either to contribute or to be able to afford more.
Lifestyle.
The younger generation wants marriage, children and family again.
Consumption instead of children? Preferring to spend the money children cost on oneself? That's a thing of the past. In the 1980s and 1990s, the younger generation, up to the age of 34, wanted less and less to do with children and starting a family (1985: 58% – 1994: 53% – 1999: 52%). Now a trend reversal is evident: no longer are sports, hobbies, and vacations the focus of life, but rather marriage, children, and family – with an increasing trend (2003: 56% – 2008: 67%). Stability is in demand again. At some point, the fun of freedom and independence ends if the question of meaning remains unanswered. The trend toward individualizing life has passed its peak. The majority of young people are rediscovering the value of reliability. They recognize that caring for family and their own children ultimately provides more personal fulfillment than always thinking only of themselves.
Opaschowski: „By 2030, the family will not be a thing of the past. And consumption or children will no longer be a real alternative. If the changing attitudes of the younger generation continue to stabilize, perhaps as early as 2020 three-quarters of young people will vote in favor of starting their own family. And by 2030, it could be eighty percent of those under 34 who are saying goodbye to being single and childless.“
A fundamental shift in attitudes is emerging, although it is developing slowly and will not translate into demographic changes overnight. This is primarily evidenced by the still considerable reservations of young men, who place significantly more value on their personal freedom than young women (55% – young women: 37%) and are less convinced that sufficient time for personal interests remains within family life (39% – young women: 60%). There are significant differences between the sexes regarding attitudes toward starting a family, which will likely require another generation before they noticeably converge around 2030.
Social convoys.
Life in a welfare society
In economically challenging times, when money is tight, people increasingly rely on their "friends in need" and appreciate their dependability. Relationships with "good friends" often last a lifetime and are frequently more intense than relationships with one's own family. Regular assistance is offered to friends just as often as to relatives. This is especially true for single-person households, who tend to cultivate friendships more intensively. Opaschowski explains: "Friends and neighbors act as social convoys and lifelong companions. As a result, acts of friendship are increasing across the board, which also includes the resurgence of the 'good neighbor' dynamic. People are growing closer and experiencing the mutual dependence."‚
The worries and troubles of others don't burden us, but rather evoke positive feelings of being able to help and being helped. Not only the service-oriented society, but also the society of caregivers has a bright future. Those who don't want to be alone or abandoned in life, especially in old age, must cultivate friends as social support networks. This can be an important investment in one's own future, one that has a lasting impact and even pays off in the long run.
Live well instead of having a lot.
Trend towards sustainable prosperity thinking
A renewed focus on what is lasting is taking place. And this is less and less a question of money. Germans would rather be "happy" (67%) than "rich" (46%), have a family (64%) and good friends (64%), and live in an "intact natural environment" (67%). Their attention is once again turning more towards the qualitative, i.e., worthwhile, aspects of life. And that means: feeling good, well-being, and prosperity. It's about the essence of life. In the purely economic growth-oriented thinking of recent decades, the factor of stability had largely been overlooked. Against the backdrop of a steadily increasing life expectancy and a society of longevity, people are now placing greater value on sustainable prosperity that is not solely dependent on economic cycles and stock market prices.
Many Germans are rediscovering the value of quality of life, and increasing one's standard of living is no longer the most desirable goal. The realization is taking hold that experiencing nature intensely is more beneficial and healthy social relationships are more fulfilling than simply accumulating material possessions. Reflecting on sustainable prosperity is about living a good life. And that also means satisfying the needs of the current generation without compromising the quality of life for future generations.
Nature. Culture. Religion.
The winners of demographic change
In an aging society, the life spheres of work, leisure, and consumption, which have expanded since industrialization, are losing their undisputed dominance. Work-centeredness, leisure orientation, and a consumerist approach to life are likely to be among the losers of demographic change: identification with work is declining, and consumption and leisure experiences are becoming less important. Professor Opaschowski: "For personal well-being and determining one's own quality of life, intangible aspects of life are moving to the forefront. These are nature, culture, and religion. They are losing their niche status." Culture no longer exists in the shadows alongside consumption. And churches can hope for a revaluation of religion's significance. After all, health, nature, and religion represent constants in life. They will therefore also be the well-being and growth markets of the future.
The entire consumer sector will feel the effects of demographic change in the near future. An aging society leads to altered consumer needs: for older generations, the desire to consume is becoming almost foreign, as quality of life is gaining importance. Nearly two-thirds of those aged 50 and over (62%) believe that "consuming and spending money will soon no longer be enjoyable." Intangible aspects of life are more important and also more sustainable. Gone are the days when money could be spent freely. In the future, saving will be more important than wasting.
Professor Opaschowski: „The future will once again be more about finding meaning – realized in the formula: from escapism into sensory experiences to the search for meaning. This focus on meaning will become the most important resource of the future and a major challenge for the economy. Because with every new consumer offering, the question of meaning, ‚What is the purpose of all this?’ must be answered.“ Consequently, future markets will also be markets of meaning – relating to health and nature, culture and education. Ultimately, it's about quality of life. Consumers, who see themselves as a generation of meaning-seekers, will demand messages of value instead of advertising messages. They want little to do with abstaining from consumption, but all the more with the value and sustainability of the consumer experience.
On the other hand, a counter-trend is also observable: the more some save, the more others can afford. In the area of consumption, a two-tier society is becoming entrenched, with families and retirees on one side and young adults, singles, and childless couples on the other. Polarization in consumer behavior is increasing. The proportion of frugal consumers, whose budget "just covers daily needs," is growing (2000: 151,300 – 2008: 201,300), while the proportion of experience consumers, who can still "afford a good life" (2000: 241,300 – 2008: 221,300), remains almost stable. The middle ground is shrinking: the group of "average consumers" is getting smaller and smaller (2000: 451,300 – 2008: 331,300).
Optimism for the future prevails.
Changing attitudes towards the future
German citizens, especially young people, are relatively hopeful about their future. This is equally true for families with children. "Families and the younger generation are the greatest sources of hope. They are looking ahead with courage. This gives us hope for the future. Because it has been proven that confidence in the future also increases the potential for civic spirit and community spirit. This is something policymakers can build on," said the head of the BAT Foundation.
Heinrich Heine's famous saying, "When I think of Germany at night, I am robbed of sleep," is experiencing a positive turn in the 21st century. Enthusiasm for the idea of progress is experiencing a renaissance. Belief in progress and hope for the future are no longer mutually exclusive. When Germans think about the future, they mention work (44%), progress (44%), and hope (39%) – followed by technology (33%), performance (28%), and ideas (23%). The younger generation places the greatest hopes in Germany's future: work (70%) and progress (54%) represent their most important associations with the future. For them, progress means getting ahead – both professionally and personally.
The ideal and guiding principle of a "Generation V" (trust/responsibility/reliability) is emerging for the future, a generation that confidently develops more initiative and cultivates strong relationships. The younger generation wants to know what their country "should" look like in the future. They are looking for far-sighted visions that create a positive atmosphere and provide answers to the question: What will move us forward? They also desire visions of responsibility that give them back more personal accountability and inspire them to embrace shared goals. Opaschowski: "Germany's future belongs to a world of responsibility for people – and not just for institutions."„
Socio-political visions of the future, as expressions of meaning, are still scarce in public discourse because they do not appear to be economically or technically viable, or necessarily subject to the imperative of utility. In reality, questions of meaning are increasingly being posed as questions about the future. Shaping the future means asking today how we want to live tomorrow.
Agenda 2030.
What still needs to be done politically
The economic downturn has reached people's everyday lives: Living standards are declining. Germans are becoming poorer. The achieved quality of life is being called into question. The population is calling for urgent political action. Alongside combating unemployment (87%) and preventing aggression and violence (58%), the call for a sustainable state social security system is growing ever louder. "A fundamental shift in public sentiment is emerging. Citizens want to take responsibility for their own well-being. However, they expect and demand that politicians fulfill the core tasks of the welfare state and provide social security against life's risks," says Prof. Opaschowski.
In the aging society of the future, political priorities are shifting. The desire for secure healthcare has almost doubled among the population since 2000 (2000: 351,300 – 2008: 671,300). Comparably dramatic increases have also been seen in demands to combat rising prices (2000: 501,300 – 2008: 711,300), and, to a lesser extent, in maintaining living standards (2000: 391,300 – 2008: 521,300). Underlying all of this is the fear of downward social mobility. Today and in the future, issues and problems that did not garner majority support during the prosperous times of the 1980s and 1990s are dominating the discourse.
The public debate surrounding poverty among the elderly has also intensified the desire among some segments of the population for a flexible retirement age (2000: 271,300 – 2008: 371,300). A growing number of Germans want to determine the end of their working lives themselves, meaning they want to retire earlier or work longer to maintain their standard of living in old age. The demands of the German people are clear: politics must become about future security. This applies particularly to the still unresolved pension issue. The focus is not on a guaranteed pension, but rather on securing the current level of pensions, which well over two-thirds of the population (671,300) consider a pressing future problem. Given demographic trends, the pension issue could become a decisive factor in elections. Eighty-one percent of the 65-plus generation already see finding a solution to this problem as the most important future task for the state.
With the rise of unresolved social problems, environmental issues are temporarily pushed into the background. Combating pollution remains important, but its societal relevance is declining. As recently as the late 1980s, ecology ranked significantly higher than the economy in the eyes of the public. Environmental protection was considered exceptionally important at that time (79%). Two decades later, a clear shift in priorities is evident. Contrary to public and published opinion, the public's assessment of environmental problems has reached an all-time low (1989: 79% – 1995: 65% – 2008: 51%). Now, according to the public, securing pensions and living standards, as well as combating crime, are the most pressing societal problems. Combating pollution appears only in 13th place on the list of future political priorities – surpassed only by demands for a ban on animal testing. Otherwise, economic interests and social issues dominate.
Opaschowski: „Apparently, a large part of the population has the impression that Germany’s high environmental standards can hardly be improved any further and that the need for environmental policy action is less urgent.“ Furthermore, many German citizens feel more affected by environmental issues than they do about them. To solve the problems, they place more trust in government regulations, even practically waiting for bans: penalty taxes for gas guzzlers, congestion charges for cars with poor CO2 emissions, climate passes for drivers, stricter energy-saving regulations for homeowners, or hefty fines (66%) for environmentally harmful behavior.
The public believes that politicians should provide concrete answers to the crucial question of what the future truly holds for citizens. They desire a policy that demonstrates foresight and remains committed to the common good – through honesty and reliability. Only in this way can a looming double crisis of trust be averted in the future, a crisis in which citizens and politicians distrust each other.
Germany 2030 can come.
This is how we want to live tomorrow
The future of living won't be shaped by UFOs, air taxis, or moving walkways, but rather by singles and seniors, co-housing projects and multigenerational housing, neighborhood volunteer exchanges, and community hubs. The radical separation of work, living, and leisure is gradually being reversed. Commuters are increasingly returning to the city, and small, independent shops are re-establishing themselves in residential areas because shopping habits are changing in an aging urban society, with people preferring to shop closer to home rather than in out-of-town shopping centers. And because there are fewer large families, there's less need for large supermarkets and bulk shopping trips. Supermarkets and hypermarkets on the outskirts are increasingly being replaced by neighborhood shops that combine everything under one roof: bakery and grocery store, newsstand and post office.
Lowered curbs, level access, and wide entrance doors make life easier for older people in centrally located, relatively small apartments – with less interior comfort but more in-house services. Some neighborhood managers will offer shopping and escort services. And for co-housing communities, there are guest rooms, common rooms, and courtyards that everyone can use. Many people will continue working until age 70, but will also offer and receive mutual assistance. And because they want to live independently for longer, there won't be more nursing homes. Quite the opposite: In the future, people will want more outpatient services than inpatient care, more neighborhood support than social services assistance, and more living at home than being placed in a nursing home. Co-housing projects, senior shared apartments, and multigenerational housing will become increasingly common. Life tomorrow will be life in a multigenerational society.
Summary and outlook until 2030: Citizens are no longer passively waiting to see what the future holds. Driven by goals and performance, they are shaping their own future with a "let's-do-it" mentality: "This is how we want to live!" They are genuinely proud of Germany, the land of work, achievement, and progress: The willingness of young people to perform is exploding. Women are entering the workforce with a powerful presence. Re-entry at 50 is becoming a reality, and a comeback at 65 is increasingly likely. The family will no longer be obsolete, as the majority of the population is prepared to cultivate family relationships intensively and, above all, to encourage children to form lasting bonds. The desire for stability is growing, as is the yearning for meaning ("How do I actually want to live?"). And sustainable prosperity is gaining more and more adherents: living well instead of having a lot. The future is rooted in our origins. Life in Germany in 2030 begins now. Bring on 2030!
The book
GERMANY 2030. HOW WE WILL LIVE IN THE FUTURE
784 pages/148 graphics/index
is available in bookstores now.
ISBN 978-3-579-06991-3 Gütersloher Verlagshaus, 29.95 euros
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