The world travel champion returns in 2010:
„Holiday spirit instead of crisis frustration“

The German tourism industry can breathe a sigh of relief. Despite uncertainty and concerns about the future, Germans intend to live up to their reputation as world travel champions once again in 2010. Forty-two percent of Germans are already mentally packed and planning to take at least one trip in 2010. One in nine citizens (11%) even plans to take two or more trips in the coming season. The large number of undecided travelers remains constant: More than one in three respondents (35%) are cautious in their planning and are remaining in a holding pattern for the time being. These findings come from the 26th German Tourism Analysis by the BAT Foundation for Future Issues, in which 4,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were surveyed about their vacation behavior in 2009 and their travel intentions for 2010.

Travel intensity 2009:
„"Only one in two Germans was on vacation"“

„"Germans' desire to travel remains strong, and the tourism sector has weathered the worst of the downturn. However, vacation travel is no longer a viable option for everyone," said Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, the foundation's tourism expert. On average, half of all Germans still traveled for five days or longer (50 %), meaning travel intensity was at the same level as in 2008.
Nevertheless, an almost dramatic divide ran through society. This is illustrated, among other things, by a comparison of occupational groups: Four-fifths of all civil servants took a trip (80), while only about half as many blue-collar workers did so (41). An even greater gap is evident in terms of income: Higher earners (net household income over €3,500) took vacations as a matter of course. For three-quarters of them, an annual trip is almost obligatory (74), and two-fifths (39) of this income group even treated themselves to two or more trips in 2009. Those with low incomes (net household income under €1,000) can only dream of such things: Only one in five (20) could afford a vacation. „A two-tier society has emerged in the mobile and immobile sectors. Some people worry more about travel destinations than about their travel budget, while others increasingly have to calculate and save, and often spend their holidays on their balcony or in Bad Meingarten,“ said Reinhardt.

Domestic travel destinations 2009:
„"Black Forest is the winner of the season"“

Germany remains by far the most popular holiday destination for German citizens. Almost two out of every five trips (37 %) took place between Flensburg and Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Demographic change, in particular, supports this trend and will simultaneously lead to lasting changes in the travel industry. Reinhardt: "Today's and tomorrow's seniors want more than just sun, fun, and sand. Entertainment, variety, and attractions alone are not enough in the long run to win over this experienced traveler. Above all, their holidays must offer them added value: service and quality, communication and conviviality, comfort and atmosphere – in other words, the softer aspects of a holiday that allow them to lose track of time and truly enjoy their vacation. That's what older travelers are looking for and expecting.".

In the distribution of travel flows, the two previous frontrunners lost market share. The share of tourists visiting Bavaria decreased to 8.1 percent (2008: 8.7 percent). Similarly, the number of travelers to Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania declined (6.8 percent; 2008: 7.3 percent). The coastal states of Schleswig-Holstein (5.6 percent) and Lower Saxony (4.3 percent) remained constant. The winner in the German tourist distribution in 2009 was Baden-Württemberg, with its destinations around the Black Forest and Lake Constance, which significantly increased its share from 2.9 percent in 2008 to 3.7 percent.

Foreign travel destinations 2009:
„"Spain remains in the lead, Türkiye and Italy are almost neck and neck"“

Spain remains a popular holiday destination for Germans. More than one in eight trips (13.2%) led to the Iberian Peninsula. Even second-placed Italy (6.9%) can only dream of such visitor numbers, and it is increasingly feeling the competition from Turkey (6.6%). Turkey has clearly overtaken Austria (4.1%), Greece (3.3%), Scandinavia (2.1%), and France (1.8%) and can expect further growth. Turkey's great advantage lies in its diversity: natural resources, guaranteed sunshine and beaches, cultural highlights from the Hagia Sophia to the travertine terraces of Pamukkale, plus a high level of hospitality and excellent service. This offer appeals to broad target groups and is just as popular with young adults (9.9 %) and childless couples (8.5 %) as it is with families with children (8.1 %) and families with teenagers (10.0 %).

The long-haul travel market saw losses, attracting approximately ten percent fewer guests than the previous year. Overall, one in ten trips taken by German citizens took them outside of Europe (2009: 10.2 percent – 2008: 11.1 percent). Package holiday destinations in North Africa, such as Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco (3.7 percent), as well as destinations in North America (1.4 percent), proved particularly popular. Asia, on the other hand, continues to wait for its tourism breakthrough. The entire Far East, from India and Thailand to China and Hong Kong, attracted "only" 1.5 percent of German holidaymakers – less than Switzerland alone (1.8 percent).

Trip duration 2009:
„"Vacation duration remains constant at 13 days"“

The average trip duration in 2009 was exactly 13 days. This continued the trend of the last ten years, with average trips lasting just under two weeks. The dream of even longer vacations remained unfulfilled. Only one in eight vacationers (13 %) traveled for three weeks or longer. A direct correlation exists between the distance of the vacation destination and the duration of the trip. For example, a vacation between the German coast and the mountains lasts only about ten days (10.2). Austria can also only welcome German tourists for eleven days. In contrast, a visit around the Mediterranean – to Turkey, Greece, Italy, or Spain – lasts significantly longer, at about 14 days each. And those flying to long-haul destinations stay for an average of about three weeks, if not longer (USA 20.4 days; Far East 21.1 days). The short-trip market stagnated – for the first time in years (2.8 %). The winner of the past decade had to cope with significant setbacks, especially in city tourism.

Travel expenses 2009:
„"As cheap as it hasn't been in five years"“

Germans spend an average of €1,038 per person on their holidays. This keeps the holiday budget roughly at the same level as in 2004 (€1,025). These costs include not only travel and accommodation expenses, but also all incidental costs, from dining out and excursions to entrance fees for attractions, shopping, souvenirs, and tips.

The analysis of spending and travel duration across different life stages reveals remarkable differences:

• Retirees stay the longest at 14 days – they also have the largest time budget and spend an above-average amount of money locally (€1,095).
• The relatively short length of stay on site of only 10.6 days for the young adults fits with the limited holiday budget (€790).
• Childless couples spend the most money on their holidays (€1,198), and they also stay for a long time (13.2 days).

The distribution of actual vacation costs across destinations proves revealing. Costs increase almost automatically with travel distance. A trip abroad, at €1,221, is nearly 70 percent more expensive than a vacation in Germany (€723). A vacation in long-haul destinations like the USA (€2,315) or in Far Eastern countries like China, Thailand, or India (€2,292) is indeed a journey "to another world"—but also into a different price bracket. Destinations around the Mediterranean are all at a similar price level of around €1,200. Austria, on the other hand, can only dream of such revenues per guest. The Alpine republic earns significantly less than its competitors, at €899.

Travel destinations 2010:
„"Türkiye could be the winner of the year"“

Regarding travel destinations for 2010, almost one in four Germans plans to spend their vacation in their own country (22%). One in three wants to travel to another European country (33%), and one in ten (10%) plans to fly to a destination outside of Europe. More than a third of those with firm travel plans (35%) have not yet decided which country will be their destination in 2010. Spain (9.2%) will undoubtedly remain the most popular foreign travel destination this year.
Turkey (4.8 %) can hope to displace Italy (4.0 %) from second place. The bonus of Istanbul being the European Capital of Culture 2010 could attract additional travel-loving couples and singles to Turkey. North African destinations, from Egypt to Tunisia and Morocco (2.6 %), can also look to the future with relative optimism, whereas Austria (3.2 %) and Greece (1.6 %) face the threat of further market share losses. However, all travel destinations, from the Black Forest to the Caribbean, can continue to rely on the large group of undecided travelers who are simply waiting for the right offer before embarking on their holidays.

Travel desires and tourism potential:
„"More all-inclusive than virtual"“

Travelers' vacation interests are diverse. There are interested parties in almost every segment. However, a closer analysis reveals that not every type of vacation can expect increasing numbers of guests. Some need to focus more on retaining their existing clientele and less on attracting new target groups. The greatest potential lies in the all-inclusive segment. Almost two out of five Germans express interest in this (37). This is closely followed by the classic relaxing vacation (35), and slightly further back are renting a holiday home (28) and long-haul travel (25). Shortly after – perhaps the winner of the future – is the cruise market (19), where there is currently a significant gap between aspiration and reality. City tourism will at best experience stagnation (20 %), whereas mountain and hiking holidays (11 %) and camping tourism (10 %) are poised for a comeback and growth can be expected.
Very different preferences are expressed within the population:

• Singles show the strongest interest in city tourism (22 %) and cultural tourism (16 %).
• Medical wellness and mountain/hiking tourism (each 15 %) remain interesting for the best agers (50-64 years).
• Young people want caravan trips (23 %) and want to go camping (31 %).
• Young adults have a tendency towards adventure holidays (32 %).
• Bus travel is relevant for retirees (27 %).
• And families have a great interest in holiday homes (48 %).

Reinhardt: „The wishes and interests are as diverse as they are varied, but at the same time offer numerous opportunities for providers, who should increasingly focus on specific target groups in the future rather than trying to please everyone. This would effectively counter the risk of fragmentation of offerings and conflicts between target groups. However, the population agrees on one thing: only one in a hundred is interested in virtual travel „at home.““

Technical data of the TA 2010 survey.
Results of the 26th German Tourism Analysis

Number and representation of respondents: Germany, 4,000 people aged 14 and over
Survey period: January 2010
The publication of the 26th German Tourism Analysis (TA 2010) will be available free of charge as a magazine from March 11, 2010 (orderThe study includes, in addition to current analyses and forecasts on travel behavior in 2009/2010, presentations on the key topics of "holiday costs", "means of travel", "travel booking methods", "evaluation of travel destinations" and "activities during holidays".