Current research, 229
4. January 2011
BAT Foundation for Future Issues presents the 27th German Tourism Analysis
Travel summary 2010
More travelers, smaller vacation budgets
„"The world travel champion is back – a desire for holidays instead of crisis frustration," was the forecast last year by the BAT Foundation for Future Issues regarding the recently concluded 2010 travel season. And that's exactly what happened – the travel intensity of Germans increased by more than two percentage points compared to the previous year, reaching 52 percent. This is according to the 27th German Tourism Analysis by the Foundation for Future Issues, an initiative of British American Tobacco, in which 4,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were surveyed about their holiday behavior in 2010 and their travel plans for 2011.
„"The desire to travel knows no bounds, but the vacation budget does. This formula sums up the travel behavior of Germans. While the majority of citizens did travel, they reduced their vacation spending by an average of almost 100 euros," says Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, Scientific Director of the BAT Foundation. "Travelers agree: they would rather travel more cheaply than forgo a vacation altogether."“
Travel intensity 2010
Division in society continues to increase.
Despite the volcanic eruption in Iceland and the resulting ash cloud across Europe, despite the Euro crisis and the multi-billion euro bailout packages for Greece and Ireland, despite the largest oil spill in US history, despite heat waves from Russia to Italy, despite terror warnings and attempted attacks in Germany, more Germans traveled in 2010 than in a long time. A total of 52 percent of German citizens were away for five days or more in 2010. Travel patterns in West and East Germany continued to converge, and the differences between urban and rural populations also diminished. However, significant disparities remained between income groups. Four out of five high earners traveled during the past holiday season (79%). Compared to the previous year, this represented an increase of five percentage points, and there is little sign of the affluent Germans' appetite for travel abating.
In contrast, the number of low-income travelers in Germany stagnated at a low level – not even one in three of this income group (31%) could afford a five-day vacation in 2010. Professor Reinhardt: „Vacation travel is no longer a common good. And the travel industry is threatened with further division into a two-class society of those who are mobile and those who are not.“
Domestic travel destinations 2010
The sun rises on the Baltic Sea.
Germany is and remains by far the most popular travel destination for Germans. In the past travel season, more than one in three travelers (37%) spent their vacation between Flensburg and Garmisch-Partenkirchen. The winner of the 2010 travel season was the Baltic Sea, which welcomed approximately one in eleven German vacationers.
The Baltic coast in Schleswig-Holstein, in particular, enjoyed a significant increase in visitors compared to the previous year. Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, on the other hand, benefited from the growing number of tourists in the hinterland, such as the Mecklenburg Lake District. The Bavarian holiday regions, as well as the North Sea coast, were able to maintain their visitor numbers. However, holiday destinations in Baden-Württemberg (e.g., the Black Forest and Lake Constance regions) had to cope with declines – the first in years – and were unable to maintain their high levels from the previous year.
Foreign travel destinations 2010
Croatia the winner of the season
Spain once again topped the list of foreign travel destinations. More than one in eight Germans (12.91%) spent their holidays in the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands, or mainland Spain. Italy (6.71%) and Turkey (6.61%) followed closely behind.
Only the second decimal place determined the ranking on the popularity scale. Austria and Croatia also welcomed many German tourists. "Croatia was the winner of the 2010 travel season. The excellent value for money, as well as the hospitality and the beautiful landscapes in the holiday regions along the coast and on the more than 1,000 offshore islands, particularly impressed German tourists. In the coming years, the country on the Adriatic could develop into a real competitor for the other Mediterranean destinations," said the head of the BAT Foundation. Greece, on the other hand, experienced losses. In the wake of the Greek financial crisis and the associated loss of image and tourist confidence, the number of German tourists between Athens, Crete, and the Peloponnese decreased by about ten percent.
In contrast, long-distance travel has lost none of its appeal. Despite terrorist attacks and natural disasters, more than one in nine Germans embarked on a "big" trip in 2010. Compared to the previous year, all overseas destinations, from North America to Asia and from Africa to the Caribbean, recorded slight increases.
Travel duration and travel costs 2010
12.5 days for 944 euros
The average length of vacation for Germans in 2010 was 12.5 days. This is half a day less than in 2009 (13 days). The vacation philosophy of "the best weeks of the year" is increasingly failing due to time constraints and, above all, financial limitations. However, the desire to avoid spending vacations at home remains strong, and to make this a reality, Germans are continuously shortening their trips. Reinhardt explains: "Over the past thirty years, the average vacation duration has steadily decreased by about two days per decade: in 1980 it was 18.2 days, in 1990 16.3 days, in 2000 14.8 days, and in 2010 12.5 days. If this trend continues, the average trip duration could fall below ten days for the first time by the end of the decade." Currently, domestic trips average only 10.3 days.
On average, Germans spent €944 per person on their holidays. This sum included not only travel and accommodation costs, but also all incidental expenses – from shopping trips and excursions to souvenirs and tips for service staff. Compared to the previous year (2009: €1,038), total spending thus decreased by almost €100. For Germans, the principle remains: it's better to save on the holiday itself and the length of the trip than to stay home altogether.
The difference between domestic and international travel costs was enormous. A trip to another European country cost €981, almost 50 percent more than a vacation in Germany (€662). Long-haul trips to the USA, the Caribbean, or Asia are dream destinations and will likely remain so for most Germans. At €1,668, these trips to far-flung destinations cost significantly more than Germans were willing or able to spend.
Travel forecast 2011
One in four people still doesn't know where to go.
Germany will remain by far the most popular travel destination for German citizens in 2011. Despite the variety and competition from destinations in Europe and overseas, almost one in four Germans intends to spend their vacation in their own country. It remains completely open whether Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania or Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein or Lower Saxony, Baden-Württemberg or some other holiday destination in Germany will be the winner of the season. Anything is still possible.
Spain remains the undisputed leader among foreign travel destinations. The Balearic Islands, in particular, can expect a large number of visitors again in 2011. Meanwhile, the battle for tourists between Italy and Turkey will continue. Both destinations are expected to welcome a similar number of travelers. Turkey can anticipate an above-average number of East Germans and younger travelers, while Italy is expected to attract more West Germans and older visitors. The survey results also show that destinations in Greece, Scandinavia, Croatia, and Austria can expect a significant influx of travelers from Germany.
SPECIAL TOPIC:
Holidays in crisis zones – Germans show risk awareness
Following the unrest in Tunisia at the beginning of the year, tensions have also been simmering in Egypt since the end of January. And while all tourists were evacuated from Tunisia at short notice, many German tourists are still sunbathing on the beaches from Hurghada to Sharm El Sheikh. Unrest and travel warnings are nothing new in Egypt. Since the mid-1990s, there have been repeated political crises that have impacted tourism in the Mediterranean country (e.g., attacks in Luxor in 1997, in Taba in 2004, in Sharm El Sheikh in 2005, and in Dahab in 2006). German tourists have always reacted with immediate awareness of the crisis, but have subsequently returned relatively quickly to North Africa's most popular holiday destination. Will this pattern continue in the future? And what influence will the travel warnings have on holiday behavior in 2011?
The result is clear: Almost half of all Germans say they are adjusting their current travel behavior in response to terrorism and travel warnings. Germans are primarily considering changing their destination and travel dates. And more than one in eight are reacting decisively by postponing their vacation altogether. In addition, one in three Germans is already exercising general caution when traveling, stating that they only travel to lower-risk areas (e.g., within Germany). In contrast, only 13 percent of Germans say they will not be influenced by travel warnings and intend to proceed with their vacation as planned. Compared to the past, for example, the year of the first Gulf War in 1991 (78%: vacation plans not changed) or after September 11, 2001 (67%: vacation plans not changed), citizens are demonstrating a significantly higher risk awareness and choosing their vacation destinations more carefully.
The conclusion of the BAT Foundation's scientific director: "Even in times of crisis, Germans want to travel. The tourism industry will therefore experience short-term fluctuations rather than collapses, and these will only apply to specific regions. And destinations in Egypt and Tunisia could once again become popular travel destinations for Germans in the long term. However, it is questionable whether tourists will return this summer. This time it could take a little longer.".
Technical data of the TA 2011 survey
Results of the 27th German Tourism Analysis
Number and representation of respondents: Germany, 4,000 people aged 14 and over
Survey period: January 2011
Survey institute: GfK Marktforschung/Nuremberg
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