Only two per cent 'surf' the Internet: A boom is a legend for now

The international computer network Internet is set to spread inexorably around the world. Around 30 to 40 million people worldwide have access to the global data network. Anyone expecting a boom in the future in view of these figures will be disappointed for the time being, at least in Germany. Only two per cent of German citizens 'surf' the Internet occasionally. This is the result of a recent representative survey by the Leisure Research Institute of British-American Tobacco, in which 3,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were asked about their media consumption. The survey shows that there are far fewer net surfers in Germany than generally assumed or surmised. 20 per cent of Germans have a computer at home, only twelve per cent use it regularly and only two per cent log on to the international data network once a week.

"The information highway does not resemble a data highway, but rather a beaten track in which a few electronically educated people virtually lose themselves," says Prof Dr Horst W. Opaschowski, Director of the Leisure Research Institute. "The main reasons for this are not just convenience or a lack of time, but above all a lack of skills: cyberspace is populated almost exclusively by the highly educated." The problem-free data search in the blink of an eye is dominated more by high school (4%) and university graduates (8%), while the proportion of secondary school and primary school graduates is less than 0.5 per cent. The typical Internet users are also not the 14 to 17-year-old multimedia kids (1%), but rather the 30 to 39-year-olds in middle age (4%).

Using a PC is still largely a "man's job"

Leisure-orientated PC users could travel around the world online in five seconds. But they think little of clicking into the future. Most only use their PC as a typewriter for writing letters (16%) or have fun with games programmes (11%). Programming and database applications (4% each) or video, image and music editing (1% each) are more the exception than the rule. For the majority of consumers, video games are easier and television more convenient. After the generational change in devices, the generational change in consumers is yet to come.

One in five Germans has a PC at home, but only around one in eight makes frequent use of it. In concrete figures: Around 12.5 million Germans aged 14 and over have their own home computer and 7.5 million use it regularly. Almost half of the PC devices are sitting around relatively unused in households. And today's PC world is still largely male. The proportion of male PC users is more than three times as high (19%) as that of women (6%). Do men see using a PC as a test of patience and a technological challenge, while women tend to have doubts about the technology and user-friendliness of the device?

Multimedia: Young generation as a beacon of hope

The media world of tomorrow is divided: The war and post-war period has led to the emergence of two technology generations. The majority of older people are resistant to the new multimedia offerings. Younger people, on the other hand, take a much more positive view of the multimedia opportunities for privacy. The opportunities of the future multimedia age are recognised by the older generation, but their significance is rated relatively low.

The young generation of under-30s is quite different. In their assessment, the opportunities and risks of the future multimedia age are roughly balanced. It is striking that the positive attitude is clearly increasing. The young generation is becoming the bearer of hope. Around two in five young people hope that this will "enrich" their private lives (39%), that the new technologies will "make life more pleasant and easier" (39%) and that new jobs will be created (38%). Just under a third of young people (31%) believe that the private use of new media also has professional advantages.

Goethe lives: multimedia cannot replace the book

In 1986, one in three West Germans (32%) counted reading books among their regular leisure activities. A decade later, book reading has become much more attractive and important among West Germans (1996: 44%). Books have not been marginalised, and women in particular have contributed to this. Women are significantly more likely (48%) than men (39%) to read a book at least once a week. Professor Opaschowski: "The more female-dominated book world could be the greatest counterweight to the male multimedia domain in the future."

Books and multimedia are not mutually exclusive. 38 per cent of the population believe that multimedia will not be able to replace books in the future. Confidence increases with the level of education. Just under a third of secondary school and primary school graduates (31%) give books a chance in the future, while the proportion of college and university graduates is almost twice as high (59%). Educated readers are not dying out in the 21st century. And reading will remain a vital cultural technique in the future.

Teleworking: more individual, but more lonely

There are high hopes that "teleworking" will create new job opportunities for copywriters and contacts, accountants and secretaries in the 21st century. Teleworking includes all screen-based work that can be carried out independently of the employer's location. Teleworkers are equipped with a PC, telephone, modem, ISDN connection and printer. Teleworking saves travelling time to the workplace and makes it easier to combine family and career, but also promotes isolation.

From the population's perspective, the future opportunities and risks of teleworking are balanced. On the one hand, reference is made to the possibility of being able to organise working hours more individually when teleworking (23%). On the other hand, a problem is also seen in the fact that teleworkers miss social contacts at the workplace (22%). Working women tend to emphasise the risks, working men more the opportunities of teleworking. Obviously there is still too little experience in Germany. Can multimedia contacts ever replace interpersonal relationships? Is teleworking without social contacts responsible? Teleworking can become the great social challenge of the 21st century.
The study "The multimedia future. Analyses and Forecasts" can be obtained for a nominal charge of DM 28 from the Leisure Research Institute of British-American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH, Alsterufer 4, 20354 Hamburg. We will provide journalists and editorial offices with a review copy free of charge on request.