Our future begins now
Germany 2010 - A new study gives positive signals

One hand measures the pulse - another points the way: this is the metaphorical denominator for the well-founded analyses of the present and committed forecasts on the future of our society, which have now been published by the Leisure Research Institute of British American Tobacco under the title "Germany 2010 - How we will work and live tomorrow". The author of the 360-page book is Hamburg University Professor Dr Horst W. Opaschowski. The renowned futurologist manages an unusual balancing act. He brings uncomfortable truths to light, but at the same time his problem scenarios serve to search for solutions, prepare decisions and call for action.

Opaschowski's analyses initially focus on the systematic investigation of the population's living habits. The results of representative surveys compared over time, which are documented in numerous charts and a detailed data section, form the basis of his predictions on developments in the coming years. The result is a socially critical analysis that does not forget to send out positive signals. Impact assessment, sustainability thinking and social responsibility are the guiding principles of his book "Germany 2010."

Opaschowski's view of the next ten years is neither utopian nor speculative. The period he has chosen extends far enough beyond day-to-day politics to make structural changes visible. At the same time, however, this time perspective is still close enough to realistically assess the opportunities and risks of social development and to be able to act in a future-oriented manner. In the tradition of the Club of Rome, Opaschowski sees futurology as synonymous with the hope factor or, even more aptly, with youth as a source of hope. He wants to prepare the generation of tomorrow for a changed world, whereby doubts about seemingly immovable structures are certainly welcome. His message is intended to encourage the next generation: "Put aside your pessimism about the future. You are the actors of the future!"

When the "Germany 2010" study was first published in 1997, it was soon out of print as a standard work for business, politics and science. The new edition, which has now been completely revised, updated in terms of the database and also expanded thematically, is likely to meet with a similar level of interest. It is a committed and pointedly formulated book that gives courage for the future. Opaschowski's theses on the transitional problems of post-industrial societies are not fanciful, but are written with enough social imagination to make us think responsibly about the future of our society. "Germany 2010" offers the reader a wealth of social science facts so that everyone can form an opinion on how we can take precautions to maintain and secure our quality of life. The book is now available in bookshops everywhere (Verlag Germa Press, ISBN 3-924865-35-3) for DM 39.90.

Excerpts from the book:
HORST W. OPASCHOWSKI
Germany 2010
How we work and live tomorrow
Scientific predictions about the future of our society
Hamburg: Germa Press Verlag
ISBN 3-924865-33-7 - DM 39.90 (€ 20.40)

Changing values: friends are more important than family

The change in values is fundamental: in the mid-1980s, family, marriage and partnership were the most important personal aspects of life for Germans. In the year 2000, friends, leisure clubs and acquaintances are at the centre of life for the first time: friends have become more important than family. What used to be just a kind of "second family" has now become the centre of life. Friends have taken the place of family. The trend towards a single society, a society of loners and cliques, can have serious consequences. In future, a growing proportion of people will belong to a generation without a single parent in old age. Relational support can then hardly be expected.
The social climate in Germany is becoming harsher and colder. The dominant topics will not be shop closures, Sunday opening or service deserts. In the next decade, there will be a change of subject in Germany: social well-being will be at the centre of social debate rather than increasing prosperity, securing pensions rather than securing peace, fighting crime rather than combating environmental problems.
The change in public sentiment indicates a new need for political action. The fight against unemployment remains the most important political task of the present for citizens. However, securing pensions and combating crime are now seen as new urgent problems to be solved.

The world of work 2010: 0.5 x 2 x 3

It is foreseeable for the future: For the privileged full-time employees, work will become ever more intensive and concentrated, longer and more mentally stressful, but also - from the company's point of view - ever more productive and effective. The new labour formula for the future is: 0.5 x 2 x 3, i.e. half of the employees earn twice as much and have to do three times as much as before. The constant increase in productivity means that fewer and fewer employees have to do more and more.
 
Three population groups in particular want to make use of the offer to reduce working hours - from a shorter working day to a four-day week: City dwellers, the more highly educated and the higher earners. This points to an almost impossible task that resembles squaring the circle. Many higher-qualified people want to work less, but lower-qualified people cannot easily take on their jobs.

The consumer world 2010: Between time and money constraints

Experiential consumption is not for free. It means sacrificing mediocrity: being able to afford quality and luxury, but having to accept cheap goods and sacrificial purchases in other areas. Cheap and expensive are no longer mutually exclusive.
Consumers are becoming split personalities who are just as adept at saving as they are at wasting. This leads to a polarisation in purchasing behaviour: Brands from the lower price segments and top-of-the-range products are booming. In the long term, mid-range products fall by the wayside.
Today's young people define themselves more than ever through the consumption of experiences. However, the high value placed on expensive activities comes at a price: many can hardly escape the urge to consume. A clear majority of 14 to 29-year-olds now feel that they "spend too much money". Consumers have literally ‚bought‘ their consumption of experiences at the expense of leisure time: many can no longer afford to enjoy their lives in peace and quiet. This is because consumer prosperity and time prosperity are not for sale.

The media world 2010: Between quota and quality

By 2010, the fourth media revolution will be upon us: the first was television, the second the remote control, the third the Internet. The fourth media revolution will be the TV-PC-mobile phone set. The computer will become TV-capable and the mobile phone Internet-capable. Everything will be transformed into a multi-medium for TV programmes, computer games, Internet surfing, photo CDs and video phones. The media high-tech phase leads to the high-end phase, in which information, entertainment and communication technologies (I-U-K) merge.
The predicted knowledge society will have to be postponed until the day after tomorrow. The future belongs to an infotainment society that has hardly any time left to process information and experience. Event culture is increasingly replacing knowledge culture.
In the Internet age, e-communication is more important than e-commerce. For private consumers, the computer is primarily a communication and entertainment medium and only occasionally an information or shopping platform. What comes after the Internet? In the post-PC age, health and quality of life will be the megamarkets of the future. In an ageing society, biotechnology and genetic engineering, pharmaceutical research and research industries against cancer, Alzheimer's and dementia as well as health-related industries offering care and wellness, vitality and revitalisation will boom.
The world of sport 2010: between individualisation and staging
Germany is no longer a sporting country. Germany can hardly compete with its two neighbours, Austria and Switzerland, for example. The proportion of active sportspeople who do sport at least once a week is more than twice as high in Switzerland as in Germany.
Against the backdrop of growing experience-orientation and demographic trends in Germany, neither an increase in club membership nor an increase in sporting activity among the population can be expected in the coming years. Young people aged 14 to 17 in particular are leaving the clubs almost like refugees. There is more likely to be an ageing of the clubs in the future: The proportion of pensioners is increasing.

The holiday world 2010: between risk and relaxation

In the future age of experiences, the "best time of the year" must also be redefined. The time is ripe for new holiday concepts between green oases and artificial paradises, adventure tours and round-the-clock mobility. The experience strategies in tourism must focus on highlights, variable modular programmes and niche marketing, have imagination and master perfection so that holidaymakers can dream away reality or make their dreams come true.
 
A look at the holiday world of tomorrow makes it clear: the holidaymaker of the future will no longer be just "the" recreational holidaymaker. They will change their holiday styles like experience consumers change their clothes. Multiple holiday identities are the order of the day: this way today and that way tomorrow. Individualisation in mass tourism is accelerating. People have the feeling that they are living in a culture of missing out. They want to experience everything and, above all, not miss anything on holiday.

The cultural world in 2010: between boom and business

What the marketplaces and fairgrounds were in earlier centuries, mass events and large-scale cultural and entertainment events can be in the future: a mixture of hunger for experience and the desire for movement, sensation and happening at the same time.
Culture stages its festivals: mere opera music quickly turns into a classical entertainment show with superstars. A cultural event becomes an "event" when the media report extensively on it before the event has even taken place.
It is not the fossilisation and preservation of culture that will become a problem in the future, but rather the opposite: the obsessive demonstration of topicality in conjunction with growing commercialisation.

The social world 2010: Between a thirst for experience and a sense of duty

In the future, individualisation will be more important than organisation. The flight from institutions seems unstoppable. In 2010, the majority of Germans will no longer "voluntarily" join an organisation. Trade unions, political parties and church organisations will be most affected by this. The parties will lose their base.
In the future, there is a danger that the idea of social duty will die if we do not succeed in turning the social burden back into a social pleasure. Society and politics have a role to play here. Social commitment must become more attractive.
In future, people must be given more opportunities outside of work to actively participate in the tasks and problems of society. The passive consumer culture must be replaced by an active community culture in which people can put themselves at the service of social issues to a greater extent than before. These social tasks must be so attractive that people are willing to participate voluntarily and with pleasure and commitment. However, this presupposes that such voluntary non-profit services are socially valorised through new symbols of status and prestige.

The world of values in 2010: Between a flood of meaning and a longing for meaning

There is no longer a moral authority that could be a guiding light for communicating values. Churches have to deal with themselves, as do politicians to a large extent. Creative artists hardly make themselves heard in public. Parents are often relinquishing their role model function and their educational responsibility at the school gate. Schools, on the other hand, feel overwhelmed and pass the responsibility on to the media like a challenge cup.
Citizens, voters and consumers are hardly predictable anymore, but they are spontaneous, flexible and mobile. Regular customers and regular voters are dying out. Mood and floating voters are spreading. People consume and vote according to their personal feelings or social mood.
The plea for more public spirit must be made acceptable to the majority if Western affluent societies want to have a future worth living. For multipliers, political and social decision-makers, there is a duty to get involved publicly. Getting involved means leading the way in the search for orientation, not finding all the solutions yourself, but rather asking questions and encouraging others to find answers.

Outlook: The new meritocracy of tomorrow

The meaning of life must be redefined in the 21st century: Life is then the desire to create. The joy of creation (and not just the joy of work) describes the future optimum performance of people who do not want to be over- or underchallenged in their lives. Creative joy includes pleasure and performance in equal measure.
On the way to a multi-active meritocracy, in which self-determined personal performance is becoming more important, the traditional concept of performance/performance principle must be rethought. The debate on performance, which for decades has been focussed almost exclusively on economic issues, must be expanded to include human and social dimensions.
The transformation of the old gainful employment society into a "new meritocracy" can succeed through the equal value of paid and unpaid work, of gainful employment and non-profit work.