British American Tobacco Research Institute publishes new representative study

Since its foundation in 1979, the B-A-T Leisure Research Institute has systematically and continuously researched living conditions in Germany. The research studies „How will we live after the year 2000?“ (1988), „Leisure and quality of life. Perspectives for Germany“ (1993) and „Germany 2010“ (1997 and 2001). With the publication of the present study „Konfliktfeld Deutschland. The population's concerns about the future“, the research institute is once again pointing the way to the future. It identifies lines of conflict and possible areas of tension in the future that can still be politically controlled and shaped today.

Quality of life in Germany:
Farewell to the always-more

Germans, especially West Germans, have to say goodbye to "always more": In the last ten years, the proportion of West Germans who believed they were "better off than before" fell from 42 per cent (1992) to 33 per cent (2002). The group of those losing out on prosperity has grown. Fewer and fewer are able to continue living in their accustomed affluence between going out, shopping and going on holiday as before. The prosperity gap between West and East has remained, but the loss of prosperity - according to the population's assessment - has been more at the expense of West Germans. This is the result of a new research study by the Leisure Research Institute of British American Tobacco, in which 2,000 people aged 14 and over in Germany were asked about their current quality of life and their concerns about the future.
"Many German citizens in the East and West are having to come to terms with stagnating or even falling incomes and a loss of prosperity," says Prof Dr Horst W. Opaschowski, Director of the Institute. "The dream of feeling good in the warm bath of Western prosperity has not been fulfilled, especially for many citizens in the new federal states." Two years after German reunification, only 16 out of 100 East Germans were of the opinion that most people were better off than before. Even today - a decade later - this assessment has not changed.
Quality of life is one of the core values of a society. Information on the quality of life and life satisfaction of citizens must therefore be of fundamental importance for politicians. Opaschowski: "It certainly cannot be the task of the state to guarantee every citizen a carefree life, which would be neither possible nor desirable for society. After all, perceived deficits are an important driving force for social change. However, the quality of life achieved must also be ‚received‘ or subjectively perceived by the population." Only then can life satisfaction or area satisfaction (e.g. in relation to work, leisure, education, health) materialise. Ideally, the objective conditions of society and the subjective judgements of citizens will coincide.

Germany as an area of conflict:
Social tensions as fuel for the future

The unequal distribution of wealth could lead to major potential for conflict in the future: taxpayers turn away from or marginalise (28%) welfare recipients.
In future, welfare recipients will be increasingly exposed to discrimination and the need to justify themselves. The unemployed will also have to explain themselves more to employees or "labour owners". Almost one in five Germans (19%) expect tense disputes here in the future. East Germans in particular (27% - West Germans: 17%) fear very strong conflicts between these two population groups. Opaschowski: "The unemployed will therefore have to justify themselves twice - in the private sphere to family, friends and neighbours and in the public sphere to those in employment who feel they have to work and achieve more and more."
The population currently sees the conflict between foreigners and locals as the greatest threat to social peace in Germany. A good third of Germans (37%) expect "very strong conflicts" here in the future. Families with young people in particular express great fears here (46%). Only one in ten Germans (10%) believe that the two groups will live together without any conflict at all. All others expect the conflicts in this relationship to intensify. The relationship between Christians and Muslims is seen as similarly tense. Just under a third of the population (30%) expect very strong conflicts and a further 35 per cent expect "not so strong" conflicts.
ndifferent cultures and religions clash here and threaten to turn Germany into an area of conflict. "The aforementioned conflicts between Christians and Muslims, foreigners and locals will essentially be integration conflicts," says Professor Opaschowski.
The only reassuring aspect of the assessment of future conflict potential is the fact that the generation conflict between young and old is not (yet) of major significance (10%). Awareness of the social and economic consequences of demographic change is limited. This is supported by the moderate answers to the question: "Due to the ageing of society, there are increasing financing problems in pension and health insurance. Do you think that this will lead to greater conflict between the old and the young in our society, or do you not think so?"
This question - first asked of 1,502 eligible voters by the Institute for Practice-Oriented Social Research (IPOS) in November 2000 - revealed broad support (65%) for the intergenerational conflict at the height of the public debate on pension security and pension reform. In the current representative survey by the B-A-T Freizeit-Forschungsinstitut on the same question two years later, however, the answers are less dramatic. Now only two out of five Germans (42%) believe that there are major conflicts between young and old. The conflict situation has largely eased.

Is the social glue being lost?
The population's concerns about the future

When thinking about the future, people are most concerned about problems in the interpersonal sphere. People's worries about the future are centred on the question: Will social cohesion be lost? It is no coincidence that fear of crime (1999: 63% - 2002: 69%) dominates, with fear of a loss of prosperity also playing a role. However, most of the problems are seen in interpersonal relationships: Aggressiveness (1999: 40% - 2002: 47%) and selfishness (1999: 32% - 2002: 38%), indifference and superficiality (1999: 27% - 2002: 34%) through to callousness and social coldness (1999: 42% - 2002: 52%) are criticised. The consequences can be loneliness (1999: 20% - 2002: 27%) and social marginalisation (1999: 19% - 2002: 27%). This calls into question the entire social network that connects and supports people. What will keep people together in the future?
When thinking about the future, the population is less and less hopeful. Uncertainty tends to spread since it is no longer clear whether citizens can feel safe or not. Uncertainty as a feeling of threat is a consequence of a loss of security and trust - and this in a society in which up to now almost everyone has been able to be their own neighbour. Trustworthiness plays an increasingly important role in personal relationships. Concerns about an uncertain future are growing, as is the longing for safety and security. Every second German citizen (51%) is of the opinion "that you can't trust most people" (West: 50% - East: 55%). The social trust that people feel towards their fellow human beings is being called into question.
Professor Opaschowski: "Building trust is becoming the greatest challenge of the 21st century - in interpersonal relationships as well as in international politics, in global economic and trade relations, in working and business life (e.g. in employee motivation and customer loyalty) and, of course, in the very private cultivation of contacts in the neighbourhood, among friends and in social networks."

Between voter fatigue and disenchantment with politics:
Are young voters losing interest in politics?

Is politics losing its children? Or are children losing their interest in politics? Are young people increasingly disenchanted with parties and politics? Or are they just tired of voting because politicians seem increasingly interchangeable and parties are less and less in favour of a particular direction? The B-A-T Leisure Research Institute got to the bottom of the motives of non-voters in the latest representative survey. When asked why many citizens no longer go to the polls, one in two young voters aged 18 to 29 answered that non-voters are "fundamentally dissatisfied" with politicians and parties. One in three (37%) cite a lack of interest in politics (the rest of the population only 25%). And two in five 18 to 29-year-olds believe they are "lied to by election promises."
In their opinion, it almost doesn't matter if you go to the polls because your vote "has no influence anyway" (31% - rest of the population: 29%). And a third of the young generation (33% - rest of the population: 42%) also believe that politicians today are "no longer moral role models". And so 36 per cent of young people (like the rest of the population) come to the disappointing conclusion that "no party meets their expectations".
Perhaps it is not interest in politics that is waning, but only interest in "this" type of political presentation that turns citizens into television consumers: the stage for politics today is less and less the Bundestag and more and more political staging on television. Serious political issues are being popularised and commercialised. Voter democracy can thus quickly become viewer democracy.

Technical data of the survey Conflict area Germany

Number and representation: Germany, 2,000 people aged 14 and over
Survey period: 23 to 30 May 2002
Survey institute: INRA Germany; Gesellschaft für Markt- und Sozialforschung mbH, Mölln

A summary of the study "Konfliktfeld Deutschland. The population's concerns about the future" is available for a nominal fee of €9.80 from the Leisure Research Institute of British American Tobacco (Germany) GmbH, Alsterufer 4, 20354 Hamburg or on the Internet at www.bat.de. The documentation contains the most important overview tables and a detailed interpretation of the data in text and graphics. We can provide journalists and editorial offices with a review copy free of charge on request.
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