BAT Foundation for Future Studies publishes new Europe study
„Work without end.“ „Poverty without limits.“ „Life without security.“

The future has many faces, as does the „Europe of diversity“. And yet there are increasingly fundamental similarities between Europeans when it comes to assessing their own future reality. In the wake of globalisation and the worldwide interdependence of financial markets, Europeans are becoming increasingly similar in their attitudes to life and expectations of the future. The financial crisis and growing fear of recession and loss of prosperity give little cause for confidence. Instead of looking to the future with hope, Europeans are both realistic and worried about a fundamental turnaround in prosperity with far-reaching consequences: Work without end, poverty without limits and life without security.
The main fears are an explosion in the price of everyday goods, especially food (61%) and a widening gap between rich and poor (57%), resulting in poverty in old age (52%). In future, more and more people will have to rely on second and part-time jobs (50%) or even „have to work until the age of 75“ (41%). And around one in two Europeans are concerned about the social consequences of „organised crime“ (49%). These are the findings of the European study conducted by the Foundation for Future Studies - an initiative of British American Tobacco - in which over 11,000 people aged 14 and over in the nine European countries Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Spain, Switzerland and the UK were asked about their expectations for the future.
Prof Dr Horst W. Opaschowski, Scientific Director of the BAT Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen: „Fewer and fewer Europeans can afford to hope for the future. They must realise that no country is able to cope with the economic and social consequences of globalisation on its own. The fight against poverty and social exclusion must therefore become the most important future task of European social policy. Otherwise, social expenditure will swallow up an ever larger share of gross domestic product - at the expense of growth, innovation and technological progress.“
The European study „How Europeans see their future“, also published as a book by Primus Verlag (Darmstadt 2009), contains answers and assessments by futurologists from eleven countries. Under the research coordination of Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, Europe expert at the BAT Foundation, the population of these countries was surveyed simultaneously on eight topics: work, security, consumption, integration, education, environment, family and the relationship between rich and poor.
Dr Ulrich Reinhardt: „Europe's future is at a crossroads. The citizens“ fear of an increasing division of society is clearly evident everywhere. Many citizens are afraid of being among the losers in the end." Concerns about the future are at the centre of expectations. In contrast, only a minority of Europeans have positive expectations, such as full employment due to a declining population, equal educational opportunities for all children (16% each) or the solution to famine through genetically modified food (15%).

The future of work:
Working longer, higher retirement age and second job

Many Europeans (50%) expect to have more than one employer in the future and to have a second or part-time job. Due to increasing life expectancy, the retirement age will also shift upwards. Two fifths of respondents (41%) see most employees working until the age of 75. In contrast, only one in five (20%) hope that automation will lead to a reduction in working hours. Europe as a production location will also come under pressure. Almost one in three (31%) believe that the production of goods will largely take place in developing countries.

The future of consumption:
Expensive everyday goods, online shopping and leasing mentality

Almost two thirds (61%) of Europeans expect higher prices for everyday goods. This will also result in savings in areas such as food and clothing. On the other hand, extensive consumer behaviour between shopping trips, visits to the theatre and restaurants seems unlikely - only a minority will not primarily look at the price, preferring instead to make use of service and advice (16%). Similarly, consumers of the future will lease rather than buy products (24%) in order to avoid long-term debt. Online purchases will continue to increase, but even in 2030, only a good third of respondents (36%) expect most consumer goods to be purchased online.

The future of security:
Fear of crime and the surveillance state or personal freedom?

Organised crime remains the unsolved problem in Europe. One in two Europeans (49%) from London to Rome, from Madrid to Berlin, from Helsinki to Zurich and from Vienna to Moscow cite this concern as their top priority. Are we heading for (Latin) American conditions? Will entire streets and neighbourhoods in Europe soon be controlled by private security services? Reinhardt: „For most Europeans today, cameras in department stores and petrol stations, in museums and sports stadiums, in train stations and city centres are almost taken for granted. Protection and security seem to be more important than concerns about constant surveillance and the restriction of privacy.“ Just under a third of respondents (31%) at least believe that their own security will be more important than their own privacy for many citizens in the future and one in four (24%) could also imagine wearing an electronic chip for identification and localisation in 2030. For more than a third of Europeans (35%), surveillance technology will be so advanced by 2030 that criminals will be able to be identified as soon as they commit a crime.

The future of integration:
Potential for conflict and concerns about the future

The successful integration of foreigners is one of the challenges of the present. Although potential conflicts - such as tensions between individual groups of foreigners (38%) - are still to be expected in the future, problem areas are only mentioned by a minority of respondents. The better integration of educated immigrants, which is often cited at present, also no longer appears to be relevant in 2030. Not even one in four (23%) is convinced of this in the future. In contrast, a third of respondents (34%) believe that multinational partnerships will increase. Reinhardt: „Both foreigners and locals are equally responsible for successful integration, which resembles a balanced identity between the culture of origin and the host culture. What could counteract this shared togetherness would be physical separation from one another. This concern is shared by 35 per cent of Europeans. They fear that “most foreigners will live among themselves in certain neighbourhoods".

The future of education:
Lifelong learning - online or on a private basis

In the 21st century, education will become a central resource for every nation, but also for every individual citizen. The relationship between life time and learning time will be redefined: Those who do not continue to learn will not get ahead in the future. The forms of education will be broadly diversified: around a third of citizens expect that at least one further education course per year will be a matter of course (31%). Some believe in online lectures from the best professors at various universities (33%) and one in five (21%) expect the media to take responsibility through special educational programmes. Public schools are becoming increasingly popular in all European countries. „Whether it's PISA results, rising crime rates or the hope of better support for their own children, those who can afford it are sending their children to public schools. By 2030, over a third of Europeans expect more private schools than state schools (34%),“ says Europe expert Reinhardt.

The future of the environment:
Water as a luxury good and little hope for an end to climate change

Climate change has a variety of effects: rising sea levels, shrinking glaciers, the widening of the ozone hole, floods, melting poles and periods of famine and drought. Europeans' hopes of counteracting climate change through technical developments are low. Only 16 per cent believe there is a solution. In Europe, on the other hand, there is growing concern about clean water (42%) and also very personal side effects such as rising energy costs (38%). However, many Europeans also see the environmental situation as capable of development. Half (50%) of those surveyed expect most waste to be recycled and more than a third (37%) believe in renewable forms of energy from the sun or wind.

The future of the family:
The end of traditional marriage, work-life balance and internet dating

Three out of five respondents (60%) believe that the traditional family with a marriage licence has little future. For them, most couples will live together without being married. In contrast, equal rights for same-sex couples will continue. However, only a minority (42%) expect equality in 2030. Increasing importance is attributed to online dating - 30 per cent of Europeans expect an increase in partnerships resulting from online dating. Only a third of Europeans expect the number of children per woman to rise to two (32%). One reason for this is certainly that only 34 per cent believe it is possible to reconcile work and family life. Europe's ageing population is also being taken into account for the first time. Almost two in five Europeans (38%) expect to find more daycare centres for senior citizens than daycare centres for children by 2030. 

The future of the relationship between rich and poor:
Gap is widening. Old-age poverty and minimum income

The division of society into rich and poor is increasing in every European country (57%). Old-age poverty (52%) and insufficient income to save for old age (49%) are also the main concerns of Europeans. In every country surveyed, these three problem areas are in the top three places. Hopes for a state solution to these challenges are low: only one in six (16%) believe in education policy programmes that lead to equal educational opportunities for all children. And only one in five (20%) can imagine a guaranteed minimum income from the state. More and more citizens are living between a desire for prosperity and a fear of poverty. First and foremost, people „only“ want to maintain their standard of living - hardly anyone believes in an increase.

Conclusion: The land of milk and honey has burnt down

This study on Europeans' expectations of the future paints a bleak picture. Trust has been lost across the board. Fear of social decline and an uncertain future prevail. For many Europeans, the view of the future is rather negative and almost discouraging. All areas of society are called upon to tackle the challenges together. Politicians, for example, must create framework conditions and show more foresight than just thinking in terms of legislative periods. The media should become aware of their role as opinion makers and deal with content more responsibly and, of course, each individual is also called upon to shape the future in a positive way. As we all know, nothing good happens unless you do it.

BAT Foundation for Future Studies to publish new European study

“Endless work”. “Poverty that knows no bounds” “Life in an unsafe society”

Like Europe in all its diversity, the future has many faces. And yet increasingly there is fundamental common ground between Europeans where appraising the reality of their own future is concerned. As globalisation gathers pace and the financial markets become more intertwined, Europeans are becoming more and more alike in their attitudes to life and their expectations for the future. Financial crises and the growing fear of recession and loss of affluence give little cause for confidence. Instead of looking towards the future with hope, Europeans are expecting a fundamental change in affluence which will have far-reaching consequences and are both realistic and concerned. Endless work, poverty that knows no bounds and life in an unsafe society.

What they worry about more than anything is an explosion in the price of the commodities of daily life, in particular food (61%), and an increasing gulf between the rich and the poor (57%) with the consequence of poverty in old age (52%). In future more and more people will be dependent on second jobs or other work on the side (50%) or will even “have to work until I'm 75” (41%). And approximately one European in two is worried about the social consequences of “organised crime” (49%). This is what has emerged from a study of Europe carried out by the Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen - an initiative of British American Tobacco - in which a representative sample of over 11,000 people from 14 years upwards in the nine European countries of Germany, Austria, Finland, France, Great Britain, Italy, Russia, Spain and Switzerland were questioned simultaneously about their expectations for the future.

Prof. Dr Horst W. Opaschowski, Director of Research at the BAT Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen, says, “Fewer and fewer Europeans can afford to be hopeful about the future. They are being forced to recognise that no country is now in a position to cope with the economic and social consequences of globalisation alone. The fight against poverty and social exclusion therefore has to become the most important function of European social policy in the future, otherwise social security payments will gobble up an ever-increasing share of the gross domestic product - at the cost of growth, innovation and technological progress.”
The European study on “Future Expectations for Europe”, which has also appeared in book form, published by the Primus Verlag (German version: “Wie die Europäer ihre Zukunft sehen”, Darmstadt 2009), includes responses and evaluations from futurologists from eleven countries. In the research coordinated by Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, an expert on Europe from the BAT Foundation, people in the countries listed above were questioned simultaneously on eight topics: work, security, consumption, integration, education, the environment, family and the relationship between the rich and the poor.

“Europe's future is at a crossroad,” says Dr Reinhardt: “Its citizens’ fear of an increasing divide in society is clear everywhere. Many people are afraid of ending up as losers.” At the heart of their expectations are concerns about the future. However, only a minority of Europeans expect positive changes such as full employment as a result of decreasing population numbers, equal educational opportunities for all children (in each case 16%) or a solution to food shortages using genetically modified foodstuffs (15%).

The future of employment:
Longer working hours, a higher pensionable age and a second job

Many Europeans (50%) expect that in the future they will have more than one employer and a second job or will be doing other work on the side. As a result of increased life expectancy, the retirement age will also go up. Two-fifths (41%) of those surveyed see most employees working until they are 75. However, only one person in five (20%) has hopes of a reduction in working hours as a result of automation. Europe will also be under pressure as a production location. Almost one person in three (31%) expects goods to be manufactured mainly in developing countries.

The future of consumption:
Expensive everyday commodities, online shopping and a leasing mentality

Almost two-thirds (61%) of Europeans expect everyday commodities to cost more, with the result that people will economise even in areas such as food or clothing. In contrast, an extravagant consumerism involving shopping trips and visits to theatres or restaurants appears unlikely - only a minority will not look at the price first but instead will be more concerned about service and advice (16%). By the same token, consumers of the future (24%) will prefer to lease products rather than to buy them in order not to incur permanent debts. Online shopping will increase, but only just over a third of those surveyed (36%) expect that by 2030 the majority of consumer goods will be bought via the Internet.

The future of security:
Fear of crime and the surveillance state or personal freedom?

Organised crime remains the unsolved problem of Europe. One European in two (49%) from London to Rome, from Madrid to Berlin, from Helsinki to Zurich and from Vienna to Moscow names this as their prime concern. Are the standards of (Latin) America moving in our direction? Will whole streets and residential areas in Europe too soon be policed by private security services? According to Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, “Most Europeans nowadays take cameras in department stores and filling stations, museums and sports stadiums, railway stations and city centres almost for granted. Protection and safety seem to be more important than concerns about continuous surveillance and the curtailment of privacy in their lives.” That is, just under a third (31%) of those surveyed believe that in future their own safety will be of greater importance to many citizens than their own privacy, and one in four (24%) could also imagine that in 2030 they would be carrying an electronic chip for the purposes of identification and location. For more than a third (35%) of Europeans the technology of surveillance methods will even have progressed so far by 2030 that persons committing crimes will be identified immediately in the act of doing so.

The future of integration:
The potential for conflict and concerns about the future

The successful integration of foreigners is one of the challenges of the present day. It is true that in future we can still expect potential for conflict - such as tensions between individual groups of foreigners (38%) - but problem areas are only specified by a minority of those surveyed. Even better integration of well-educated immigrants which is frequently mentioned nowadays appears to be no longer relevant by 2030. Not even a quarter (23%) are convinced that this is how it will be in the future. On the other hand, one third (34%) of those surveyed believe in an increase in multinational partnerships. As Reinhardt says, “Foreigners and home country nationals are equally responsible for successful integration resembling an identity balanced between the culture of our country of origin and that to which we are to be assimilated. What could work against this joint cooperation would be a spatial separation from one another. This concern is expressed by 35 per cent of Europeans. They fear that most foreigners in their midst will live in particular areas of their towns.”

The future of education:
Lifelong learning - online or on a private basis

In the 21st century education will become a central resource for not only every nation but also each individual citizen. The relationship between life time and learning time will be redefined. People who do not continue learning will not get on in the future either. At the same time, the form that education takes will be diversified. Thus about one third of citizens (31%) expect that it will be taken for granted that they will attend at least one advanced training course a year. Some people (33%) believe that there will be online lectures by the best professors at different universities, and one person in five (21%) expects that the media will take over responsibility through specialist educational programmes. Private schools in every country in Europe can look forward to increasing popularity. Dr Reinhardt, an expert on Europe, says, “Whether we look at the PISA results, rising crime figures or the hope of better advancement of our own children, anyone can afford it sends his or her offspring to a private school. By 2030 over a third of Europeans (34%) expect there to be more private schools than state schools.”

The future of the environment:
Water as a luxury commodity and little hope for an end to climate change

The effects of climate change are varied: rising sea levels, shrinking glaciers, an increase in the size of the hole in the ozone layer, floods, melting polar ice and periods of famine and drought. The aspirations of Europeans to counteract climate change by means of technical developments are low. Only 16 per cent believe in a solution of this type. In contrast, concern is growing in Europe about clean water (42%) and also very personal concomitant phenomena such as rising energy costs (38%). But the environmental situation is also regarded by many Europeans as capable of development. Thus half (50%) of the people surveyed expects the greater part of our refuse to be recycled and more than a third (37%) believe in regenerative forms of energy using sun or wind.

The future of the family:
The end of traditional marriage, work/life balance and internet dating

Three out of every five people who took part in the survey (60%) acknowledge that there is little future for the traditional family with a marriage certificate. As they see it, most couples will live together without being married. On the other hand, equal rights for same-sex couples will continue to evolve. However, only a minority (42%) expects that there will be equality by 2030. Searching for a partner on the Internet will become increasingly important - 30 per cent of Europeans expect that there will be an increase in the number of partnerships resulting from Internet dating. Only one third of Europeans (32%) expect the number of children to rise to two per woman - one reason for this doubtless being that only 34 per cent believe that it is possible to combine work and family responsibilities. Initially, allowance is also made for the ageing of Europe's population. Almost two out of every five Europeans (38%) assume that by 2030 there will be more day care centres for senior citizens than children's nurseries.

The future of the relationship between the rich and the poor;
an increasing gulf, poverty among the elderly and minimum income

In every European country the gulf is continuing to increase between the rich and the poor (57%). Poverty among the elderly (52%) and insufficient income to save for one's old age (49%) are also major concerns among Europeans. In every country involved in the survey, these three problem areas end up in the first three places. Hopes for the state finding a solution to these challenges are only small: one person in six (16%) believes in educational policy programmes that lead to equal educational opportunities for all children. And just one person in five (20%) can imagine a minimum income guaranteed by the state. More and more citizens are caught between a desire for prosperity and fear of poverty. Their prime concern is to “simply” maintain their standard of living - hardly anybody believes that it is possible to improve it.

To summarise: The land of plenty has fizzled away

This study of the expectations of Europeans with regard to their future shows a bleak picture. Broadly speaking, confidence has disappeared. Fear of social decline and an uncertain future predominates. For many Europeans, the view into the future is more negative and almost disheartening. All sections of society need to tackle the challenges together - for example, politicians must create the right conditions and show more foresight where the future is concerned, rather than simply thinking in terms of legislative periods. The media needs to become more aware of its role in forming opinions and to deal with topics in a more responsible way, and it also goes without saying that each individual is called upon to shape the future positively. It is a well-known fact that there is no good in the world unless people do it. 

Research information/book reference

Nations surveyed: Austria, Germany, Finland, France, Great Britain, Italy, Russia, Switzerland, Spain
Sample size: A total of 11,100 people aged 14 and over
Method: Representative face-to-face surveys via the Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung, Nuremberg (GfK)
The publication „How Europeans see their future - answers from nine countries“ is now available in bookshops at a price of €29.90 - Primus Verlag, ISBN 978-3-89678-802-3 (408 pages, 130 graphics/tables). In the publication, 20 futurologists comment on expectations in nine different countries.

Information on the research / Notes on the book

Countries surveyed:
Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Russia, Spain, Switzerland

Sample size:
11,100 people in total, from 14 years of age upwards

Method:
Representative face-to-face interviews carried out by the Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung (GfK), Nuremberg

Publication:
The publication “Wie die Europäer ihre Zukunft sehen - Antworten aus neun Ländern“ is available as of now at booksellers at a price of 29.90 € - Primus Verlag, ISBN 978-3-89678-802-3 (408 pages, 130 drawings / tables).

In the book, 20 futurologists comment on the expectations in nine different countries.