Foundation for Future Studies presents 28. German Tourism Analysis 

Current research, 236

8. February 2012

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Foundation for Future Studies presents 28th German Tourism Analysis

Holidays remain the highlight of the year in 2012
Almost half of Germans are sitting on packed suitcases

Holidays will retain their fascination in 2012 and the German public's desire to travel remains unbroken. 45 per cent of Germans already have their suitcases packed and are firmly planning to take at least one trip lasting at least five days in 2012. More than one in nine people (11.3%) even want to travel several times this year. A further third (33%) of the population are still cautious about their holiday plans and are unsure whether they will take a trip in 2012. In contrast, only around one in five Germans (22%) are certain that they will not be travelling this year. This is according to the 28th German Tourism Analysis by the STIFTUNG FÜR ZUKUNFTSFRAGEN, an initiative of British American Tobacco, for which 4,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were asked about their holiday behaviour in 2011 and their travel intentions for 2012.
„The tourism industry can breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to stable to slightly rising guest numbers this year,“ says Professor Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, the Foundation's Scientific Director. „Germans will also prefer to tighten their belts a little in 2012 rather than spend the ‚best weeks of the year‘ at home. Holidays are and will remain the highlight of the year for most Germans.“

Destinations 2012
Holidays in Germany are in demand and popular again

The motto of the future is: „Back to the past“. Twenty years ago, almost one in two Germans spent their holidays in their own country (1991: 48%). Ten years ago, however, only around one in three (2001: 33%) opted for a destination within Germany. However, there is evidence of a renaissance of German holiday destinations in recent years. This popularity will continue in 2012. Almost one in four people are already planning to spend their holidays between the German coasts and mountains. The foundation's forecast is that a total of two fifths of all travellers will spend their holidays in Germany in 2012.
Most European destinations can look forward to a stable number of holidaymakers. Spain remains the most popular foreign holiday destination, ahead of Italy. Turkey, Austria and Croatia follow in second place. Long-haul holidays will remain popular this year, although the number of guests will vary greatly depending on the destination: While the USA and Canada, the Caribbean and Central America and, above all, Asian countries can expect numerous guests, scepticism regarding North African destinations is high.
However, all destinations from the Black Forest to the South Seas and from the North Sea to North America can continue to hope for the large group of undecided travellers who are just waiting for the right offer before they disappear on holiday.

Review of the 2011 travel season
Pragmatic instead of panicked

„There are many indications that German citizens will be travelling more again. Confidence is back and the general mood is positive. Germans want to travel more again and are consequently showing their desire to travel,“ was last year's travel forecast for the 2011 travel season by the Stiftung für Zukunftsfragen (Foundation for Future Studies). And that is exactly what has happened. Despite ongoing discussions about bailouts and the euro crisis, and despite nuclear and natural disasters, the travel intensity of German citizens increased slightly for the second year in a row to 53 per cent (2010: 52% - 2009: 50%).
A mixed picture emerged within the population. Education was a decisive factor in whether people travelled or not. The higher the level of formal education, the higher the intensity of travel - secondary school graduates (39%) travelled only half as often as university graduates (76%). The mood to travel also increased with rising income. While less than one in three low-income earners (32%) went on holiday, more than three quarters of higher earners (77%) did so.
The differences within life phases also remained large: „Childless couples and young seniors in particular proved to be especially keen travellers in 2011. Both are relatively free with their time, have money and are independent, so they can continue to visit familiar holiday destinations and discover new destinations.
In contrast, the future of tourism in the family segment remains uncertain: compared to the 2010 travel year, the proportion of travellers in this population group fell again by two percentage points. Family holidays are increasingly becoming a luxury that only every second family will be able to afford in the future,“ says Professor Reinhardt.

Domestic destinations 2011
More guests in Bavaria than at the Baltic Sea

Germany was once again by far the most popular holiday destination for German citizens in 2011. At 37 per cent, more holidaymakers spent their holidays between Flensburg and Oberstdorf than in the five most popular foreign destinations (Spain, Italy, Turkey, Austria and Croatia) combined.
The Bavarian holiday regions alone attracted more guests than North Africa, Asia, North America and the Caribbean combined. Bavaria as a holiday destination increased its market share by around one tenth to nine per cent, displacing the Baltic Sea coast from the top spot for the first time in years. The holiday regions in Baden-Württemberg also made gains. In contrast, the travel regions in Schleswig-Holstein and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania suffered losses, as they were hit harder by the „bad summer“ than other German holiday destinations.

European destinations abroad 2011
Italy wins - Greece loses

Compared to the previous year, Spain was able to slightly increase its market share (+0.4 percentage points) and thus remained the undisputed number one foreign holiday destination in 2011. Italy edged out Turkey to take second place among the most popular German holiday destinations abroad.
While Italy welcomed more German holidaymakers (+1.6 percentage points), Turkey recorded a slight decline (?0.3 percentage points). The same applied to Austria, which was unable to maintain its previous year's level. The discussions about state bankruptcy and bailouts also caused significantly fewer Germans to fly to Greek holiday destinations. Within two years, the proportion of German holidaymakers in Greece has fallen to two per cent, a reduction of around a third (2009: 3.3%).

Long-distance destinations 2011
North Africa loses market share

The long-haul holiday segment presented a mixed picture in 2011. The uprisings and changes in Egypt and Tunisia resulted in a significant decline for North African holiday destinations overall. Only 2.4 per cent of Germans visited the beaches of the southern Mediterranean coast in the past holiday season - in 2010 the figure was still around 50 per cent higher. In contrast, Asian destinations - despite the unrest in Thailand and the nuclear disaster in Fukushima - and North American destinations - despite hurricanes on the east coast and tornadoes in the interior - saw almost the same level of growth.

Trip duration 2011
Only 12.4 days of holiday left

Holidays remained the „most popular form of happiness“ in 2011 - but this happiness only lasted 12.4 days on average. This means that the duration of holidays decreased slightly compared to the previous year (2010: 12.5 days), but significantly in contrast to 2001 (2001: 14.7 days).
Longer holidays in particular were increasingly rare. Only one in four travellers took a holiday lasting two weeks or longer (26%). For the first time in the almost 30-year history of the tourism analysis, the proportion of those who went on holiday for between 5 and 13 days (27%) was higher than that of long-term holidaymakers (over 14 days: 26%). The shortening of the holiday period particularly affected domestic destinations - holidaymakers were quick to arrive, but also quick to leave. Germans spent less than ten days on holiday in their own country, almost half a day less than in the previous year (2010: 10.3 days). On the other hand, travellers on long-distance trips spent almost twice as long on the road and even within Europe they stayed three days longer than in their own country.

Travel expenses 2011
The holiday costs around 1,000 euros

Germans spent an average of exactly 1,012 euros, or 81 euros per day, per person on their holiday. This sum included not only the pure cost of travelling and accommodation, but also all additional expenses - from excursions and souvenirs to tips. Compared to the previous year (2010: EUR 944), total expenditure increased significantly by EUR 68 per person and trip. Costs varied depending on the holiday destination:

  • The daily cost of a domestic holiday was 73 euros, within Europe an average of 79 euros and a long-distance trip cost 105 euros per day.
  • A day's holiday cost EUR 89 in Spain, EUR 86 in Austria and EUR 84 in Turkey - destinations in Italy (EUR 80), Greece (EUR 69) and Croatia (EUR 64) were cheaper.
  • A day's holiday was most expensive in the USA (EUR 133) and cheapest in Poland (EUR 56).
  • At EUR 715, a holiday in Germany was over EUR 300 cheaper than a holiday in Europe (EUR 1,029).
  • At 1,967 euros, long-haul trips cost more than two and a half times as much as a holiday in Germany - but also lasted significantly longer.

Order

The study on the German Tourism Analysis 2012 (28th German Tourism Analysis) is now available as a print publication or pdf version at a price of 14.90 euros (order here).

Former „Forschung aktuell“ on the topic of „Tourism analysis“

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