Almost three out of four Germans (72%) are optimistic about the coming year - compared to only 59 per cent in the previous year. West Germans are much more positive than East Germans and younger people are much more optimistic than older citizens. There are also major differences in terms of educational background. While more than four-fifths of those with a higher level of formal education are confident about 2014, those with a lower level of education are much more reserved. These are the findings of a recent study by the BAT Foundation for Future Studies, for which over 2,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were surveyed on a representative basis.

Economic expectations for 2014: fear of recession decreases noticeably

Low unemployment figures, high export surpluses, rising share prices, high tax revenues and a strong economic performance overall characterise the year that is drawing to a close. This economic upturn has left its mark on people's expectations for 2014. As many as 41 per cent expect the economy to continue to improve in the coming year. Compared to the previous year, this is a significant increase of 21 percentage points. However, the majority of Germans remain sceptical (59%) and expect the economic situation to deteriorate overall.
The Scientific Director of the BAT Foundation for Future Studies, Professor Dr Ulrich Reinhardt: "The economic, financial, banking, debt and euro crises of recent years have left their mark. Many citizens remain unsettled, are sceptical and are worried that the next crisis will come as early as 2014."
Hopes for growth are particularly low in eastern Germany (33%). However, scepticism is also above average among the rural population (36%) and the formally less educated (34%) and belief in an upturn is correspondingly low. There are also clear differences within the population in terms of age and income. Pessimism increases with age and decreases with rising income.

Political confidence remains low in 2014
But the bottom seems to have been reached

Trust in politicians is in danger of not improving in 2014 either. On the contrary, more than three quarters of German citizens expect it to fall even further in the coming year. Reinhardt: "Overall, the massive loss of trust of recent years is continuing. No reliability and no honesty, no relevance to everyday life and no vision - these are the accusations levelled at the elected representatives."
However, two positive trends are emerging: compared to the previous year, the number of those who once again have confidence in their elected representatives has risen slightly (up 8 percentage points), and the young generation of under 35-year-olds is more positive than average about the image of politicians.
Conclusion Reinhardt: "2013 was perceived as a very positive year overall and expectations for the coming 12 months are correspondingly high. Citizens vacillate between optimism and realism. On the one hand, they are hopeful about their personal future and are prepared to do something about it; on the other hand, they only trust and rely on politics and the economy to a limited extent. The trend towards greater cohesion within society is certainly positive. Citizens recognise and experience community and mutual help - within the family and circle of friends, with neighbours, colleagues and like-minded people. The less often the state and the economy guarantee security, the more often citizens help each other themselves. This is sustainable and viable for the future."