Expectations for 2022 - little hope of an end to the pandemic 

A slight majority (54%) of German citizens are confident about 2022 and are therefore slightly more optimistic than 12 months ago (51%). And even though a clear majority are still worried about economic development, hopes of a turnaround are rising. "Only" a good two thirds (69%) believe that the economic problems will get worse in the future - compared to over three quarters in 2020 (77%).

However, an increasing number of citizens expect a division within society (2020: 64%; 2021 70%). This was the result of the latest study by the BAT Foundation for Future Studies, for which 2,000 people aged 18 and over were surveyed in early December.

The year 2021 has brought a new government, but trust in politics remains at an unchanged low level: more than three quarters expect a continued loss of trust in political leaders over the next twelve months.

According to the Scientific Director of the BAT Foundation, Professor Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, there are numerous reasons for this: "Mask scandals and unkept election promises, conflicting opinions and a growing feeling that the right steps are not being taken or implemented to combat the pandemic - the reasons for the loss of trust are numerous. Added to this is the frustration over personal restrictions, the fear of the pandemic, doubts about the competences of politicians and the increasing difficulty in understanding decisions. Large sections of the population are correspondingly dissatisfied, frightened, disappointed, angry and disillusioned. In order to increase trust in the competence of politicians, a stronger dialogue and a better information campaign would be helpful, as would more creativity and empathy on the part of those in power.

Even though the vaccination gives a lot of hope for a life without restrictions, 71 per cent assume that the coronavirus will cause permanent restrictions. In a year-on-year comparison, the population is just as sceptical as it was twelve months ago and therefore before the widespread vaccinations.

Reinhardt: "As recently as the summer, vaccination was equated with two things: firstly, protection against infection and secondly, confidence in a life without restrictions. While the former has materialised, there is growing concern that new mutations will mean we will have to continue to live with lockdowns and travel and contact restrictions."

As a result, fears of increasing division are also on the rise. In a year-on-year comparison, citizens expect society to drift apart by six percentage points more (2021: 70%, 2020: 64%). Concerns about the irreconcilability of vaccination opponents, vaccination sceptics and vaccination supporters are particularly high in the east of the republic (75%).

"The longer the pandemic and the associated uncertainties and restrictions last, the more tolerance and understanding for one another decreases and is replaced by frustration and a lack of understanding. This also increases the risk of increasing radicalisation," says the Scientific Director.

Just a few months ago, large sections of the population assumed that the pandemic was over and are now experiencing new highs in incidences and renewed restrictions. This is having a strong impact on perceptions and expectations for 2022, and the decline in social cohesion expected by large sections of the population is a cause for concern.

At least confidence in the economy is slowly increasing again - but remains low. The fact that, despite the numerous challenges and negative expectations, the majority of Germans are still personally confident about 2022 is encouraging. We need to build on this.