What do citizens expect for 2017 and what are their expectations for 2030? The BAT FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE QUESTIONS addressed these questions in its latest survey. A representative sample of over 4,000 German citizens aged 14 and over were surveyed in face-to-face interviews in two separate survey waves. 
Three key points can be summarised as the core results:

• The fears and concerns for 2017 are almost always greater than those for 2030, with the exception of the areas of security and poverty in old age.
• Younger Germans are generally more optimistic about the future than older generations.
• Compared to 2008, respondents are more confident when it comes to living together and integration. In contrast, fears have increased in the areas of terror, poverty in old age and isolation. 

Only 16 per cent of German citizens believe that the Integration of foreigners and refugees 2017 will become easier. By contrast, almost twice as many people (30%) expect the situation to improve in 2030 - especially those under 29 (34%). Compared to the 2008 survey, agreement with this question has increased significantly (2008: 20%).

Currently, only one in four German citizens (26%) believes that the Islam belongs to Germany. In just under 15 years, however, two out of five Germans (40%) take this point for granted.

To overcome common challenges such as climate change, the refugee crisis or the division of society, will bring Europe closer together - Around two in five citizens expect this for both 2017 and 2030 (41% and 42% respectively). However, the 55+ generation in particular is sceptical (35%), while almost half (47%) of those under the age of 29 answer this question in the affirmative.

The fact that in 2017 Europe Borders closed to non-Europeans to counteract the population's fear of too many refugees is expected by just under half of respondents (47%). No significant change is expected by 2030 (2030: 52% in favour), although this figure has tripled compared to the past (2008: 16%).

„The issue of refugees will occupy and characterise Germany and Europe in the coming years. Politicians are called upon to find answers to the concerns of the population. However, citizens are also called upon to contribute to successful integration through openness, tolerance and responsibility“, said Professor Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, Scientific Director of the BAT Foundation. 

The Gap between rich and poor will not decrease in 2017 from the perspective of the population. Only eight per cent expect an improvement in this respect. The higher earners (4%) and young seniors (5%) are particularly sceptical. Among the under 29s, 14 per cent are optimistic. Similar to 2008, only around one in nine Germans (11%) currently expect a change by 2030.

Terrorist attacks in Germany more than three out of four German citizens (76%) believe this is likely in 2017. And almost as many (74%) do not believe that this risk will decrease by 2030 thanks to comprehensive surveillance, for example. In contrast to the 2008 survey, this concern has therefore increased significantly (44%). Within the population, East Germans (85%) and older Germans (79%) are significantly more pessimistic than the under 29s (66%).

Around half of German citizens (52%) are currently worried about the amount of their pension. The current generation of pensioners is more positive than average and is less concerned about their pension. Old-age poverty than younger people. However, almost all German citizens (85%) expect this to be an unresolved problem by 2030. Compared to 2008, this figure has increased by a further nine percentage points (2008: 76%).

„Old-age poverty and the increasing division of society are unsolved problems of the present. From an economic point of view, a fairer distribution of wealth and income would make sense in order to maintain the purchasing power of the population in the long term and thereby preserve jobs. But the concentration of capital on a smaller section of the population should also be reconsidered in order to safeguard social peace“says Reinhardt.

Two out of five respondents (39%) consider it realistic that the People in Germany will move closer together again in 2017. By 2030, as many as 44 per cent of Germans expect this to be the case. It is not the younger, but the middle generation (especially singles) who consider such a development to be quite likely.

Similarly, three out of five Germans (60%) expect the Increasing importance of the neighbourhood - because people are increasingly dependent on each other. A further slight increase to 63% is expected by 2030, with the middle generation also agreeing more often than average (67%).

Luxury In 2017, two out of three German citizens (60%) do not define themselves by expensive consumer goods or status symbols, but instead by Time and peace. In contrast to 2008, when only one in three (34%) expected this development by 2030, 61 per cent currently believe this is likely. Within the population, this is particularly true for higher earners (net income over EUR 2,500: 76%).

For nine out of ten German citizens (90%), the Family is the most important thing in life. Above all, it is the families themselves who almost completely (99%) agree with this statement. This importance will not have changed by 2030 (91%).

Overall conclusion of the Scientific Director: „Terrorist attacks on our own doorstep, a growing division in society and unresolved refugee issues - all of this has left its mark on citizens and led to a feeling of disorientation, powerlessness and being overwhelmed. What is undoubtedly hopeful is that individual population groups believe in a better future in the long term and are willing to do their part. People are willing to take on responsibility and help shape a successful future, especially in their personal environment. Moreover, we should never forget that fear is just as human as the courage to overcome it.“