Expectations for the year 2030 - between scepticism and confidence
- Fear of cybercrime
- Expectation of rising rents
- Climate change not solved, but solar and wind energy reliably established
- Informal education on the rise
- Family is the most important thing in life
As 2017 draws to a close, many German citizens are looking forward to the coming year with excitement. Who will govern Germany in the future? Will the economy remain stable? Who will win the football World Cup? How will the refugee situation develop? And how will the situation in North Korea and the USA develop? All these questions will undoubtedly accompany the coming year.
But what do German citizens expect from the distant future? And how do they imagine life in 2030? These questions were the focus of the latest study by the BAT Foundation for Future Studies. To this end, it surveyed Over 2,000 German citizens aged 14 and over in personal interviews on their expectations for the year 2030.
One core result is: In many respects, Germany is and remains the land of sceptics and pessimists. For example, 84 per cent of respondents expect a sharp increase in crime on the internet. In 2008, the figure was „only“ 67 per cent. However, the Foundation's Scientific Director, Professor Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, does not only see the fear of crime online:
„Whether fear of terrorist attacks or foreign infiltration, burglaries or climate change - many German citizens have the feeling that they are living in uncertain times. At the same time, they are increasingly losing trust in politics, companies and the media. All these institutions are therefore called upon to convey more security, stability and optimism and to find long-term solutions.“
But what do German citizens expect from the distant future? And how do they imagine life in 2030? These questions were the focus of the latest study by the BAT Foundation for Future Studies. To this end, it surveyed Over 2,000 German citizens aged 14 and over in personal interviews on their expectations for the year 2030.
One core result is: In many respects, Germany is and remains the land of sceptics and pessimists. For example, 84 per cent of respondents expect a sharp increase in crime on the internet. In 2008, the figure was „only“ 67 per cent. However, the Foundation's Scientific Director, Professor Dr Ulrich Reinhardt, does not only see the fear of crime online:
„Whether fear of terrorist attacks or foreign infiltration, burglaries or climate change - many German citizens have the feeling that they are living in uncertain times. At the same time, they are increasingly losing trust in politics, companies and the media. All these institutions are therefore called upon to convey more security, stability and optimism and to find long-term solutions.“
Citizens consider a realistic security measure to be, among other things, a Comprehensive video surveillance a. 71 per cent believe that it will be a reality by 2030. Younger Germans in particular can imagine a future in which security is more important than privacy.
German citizens also express concerns in other areas. Neither do they believe in a Solving global challenges such as climate change (26%), nor are they confident about local problems such as the Improving the housing situation. Not only do more than one in two people (53%) expect the warm rent to be twice as high as the cold rent in future. Two-thirds of all German citizens (66%) also anticipate an increase in spatial Division of society out. In 2030, high-income earners in particular can imagine living in segregated housing estates with only their peers, while other neighbourhoods will be inhabited mainly by low-income earners. In 2008, significantly fewer Germans expected the latter (53%).
German citizens are more hopeful about climate change than in the past. Whereas in 2008 only one in eight (12%) could imagine that climate change would be solved thanks to technological developments, this figure is currently one in four (26%). Almost three quarters are also optimistic about the Development of solar and wind energy (2017: 71%; 2008: 52%) and expect to cover half of the total energy demand in the future. Reinhardt concludes:
„Reports and public debates in combination with government support measures have led to a change in awareness. More and more people are concerned about the long-term preservation of the environment, which also increases their willingness to actually do something to preserve nature themselves.“
The view of the future of education has changed significantly. Instead of traditional formal education content in schools and universities, almost one in two people (44%) expect to have a Focus on informal educational content (e.g. personal development and social learning). Agreement with this statement has doubled since 2008 (2008: 22%).
With regard to the topic Service and advice almost every second German citizen (45%) expects this to become increasingly important. The tripling of the value compared to the past (2008: 15%) indicates an end to the current „as favourable as possible“ trend. According to Reinhardt, this answer also reveals a strong desire on the part of the respondents:
„More and more people are tired of constantly looking for the best price and still having the feeling that they can't find it. In a saturated society in particular, it is therefore increasingly not just about buying products, but also the shopping experience. People want to consume with all their senses, receive good advice and feel like a king again as a customer - and they are prepared to pay a fair price for this.“
Reinhardt is therefore certain:
„In future, it won't just be providers with the cheapest offers that will prevail, but increasingly those with the best service.“
German citizens are also very positive about the topic of family. The vast majority (91%) agree with the statement: „Family is the most important thing in life in 2030.“ Especially in turbulent times, it is proving to be a constant in life and is experiencing a renaissance in every respect. There are also signs of an increase in multi-generational households, which on the one hand are financially necessary and on the other - especially among the younger generation - are sought, valued and desired.
Reinhardt concludes:
„Life in 2030 will be different in many areas than it is today. The population's fears and concerns about these changes must be taken seriously. Instead of just providing answers to the question ‚How become In order to find out how we will live in the future, we should first concentrate on how we will live in the future. want. Because no matter what opportunities we have in the future, people and all their needs must always be at the centre of all changes so that life remains worth living in the future.“
German citizens also express concerns in other areas. Neither do they believe in a Solving global challenges such as climate change (26%), nor are they confident about local problems such as the Improving the housing situation. Not only do more than one in two people (53%) expect the warm rent to be twice as high as the cold rent in future. Two-thirds of all German citizens (66%) also anticipate an increase in spatial Division of society out. In 2030, high-income earners in particular can imagine living in segregated housing estates with only their peers, while other neighbourhoods will be inhabited mainly by low-income earners. In 2008, significantly fewer Germans expected the latter (53%).
German citizens are more hopeful about climate change than in the past. Whereas in 2008 only one in eight (12%) could imagine that climate change would be solved thanks to technological developments, this figure is currently one in four (26%). Almost three quarters are also optimistic about the Development of solar and wind energy (2017: 71%; 2008: 52%) and expect to cover half of the total energy demand in the future. Reinhardt concludes:
„Reports and public debates in combination with government support measures have led to a change in awareness. More and more people are concerned about the long-term preservation of the environment, which also increases their willingness to actually do something to preserve nature themselves.“
The view of the future of education has changed significantly. Instead of traditional formal education content in schools and universities, almost one in two people (44%) expect to have a Focus on informal educational content (e.g. personal development and social learning). Agreement with this statement has doubled since 2008 (2008: 22%).
With regard to the topic Service and advice almost every second German citizen (45%) expects this to become increasingly important. The tripling of the value compared to the past (2008: 15%) indicates an end to the current „as favourable as possible“ trend. According to Reinhardt, this answer also reveals a strong desire on the part of the respondents:
„More and more people are tired of constantly looking for the best price and still having the feeling that they can't find it. In a saturated society in particular, it is therefore increasingly not just about buying products, but also the shopping experience. People want to consume with all their senses, receive good advice and feel like a king again as a customer - and they are prepared to pay a fair price for this.“
Reinhardt is therefore certain:
„In future, it won't just be providers with the cheapest offers that will prevail, but increasingly those with the best service.“
German citizens are also very positive about the topic of family. The vast majority (91%) agree with the statement: „Family is the most important thing in life in 2030.“ Especially in turbulent times, it is proving to be a constant in life and is experiencing a renaissance in every respect. There are also signs of an increase in multi-generational households, which on the one hand are financially necessary and on the other - especially among the younger generation - are sought, valued and desired.
Reinhardt concludes:
„Life in 2030 will be different in many areas than it is today. The population's fears and concerns about these changes must be taken seriously. Instead of just providing answers to the question ‚How become In order to find out how we will live in the future, we should first concentrate on how we will live in the future. want. Because no matter what opportunities we have in the future, people and all their needs must always be at the centre of all changes so that life remains worth living in the future.“
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